The Temporal Doppler Effect: When The Future Feels Closer Than The Past

People routinely remember events that have passed and imagine those that are yet to come. The past and the future are sometimes psychologically close ( just around the corner ) and other times psychologically distant ( ages away ). Four studies demonstrate a systematic asymmetry whereby future events are psychologically closer than past events of equivalent objective distance. When considering specific times (e.g., 1 year) or events (e.g., Valentine\u27s Day), people consistently reported that the future was closer than the past. We suggest that this asymmetry arises because the subjective experience of movement through time (whereby future events approach and past events recede) is analogous to the physical experience of movement through space. Consistent with this hypothesis, experimentally reversing the metaphorical arrow of time (by having participants move backward through virtual space) completely eliminated the past-future asymmetry. We discuss how reducing psychological distance to the future may function to prepare people for upcoming action

PHS63 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Of A Pharmacist-Led Intervention On Improving Inhaler Adherence In Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Objectives: The Belgian community pharmacist-led PHARMACOP intervention provided educational inhalation training sessions and motivational interviewing regarding medication use in patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). The program significantly improved medication adherence and inhalation techniques compared with usual care. This study aimed to evaluate its costeffectiveness. Methods: An economic analysis was performed from the Belgian health care payer's perspective. A Markov model was constructed in which a cohort of 1,000 patients with COPD receiving the 3-month PHARMACOP-intervention or usual care, was followed. This cohort had a mean age of 70 years, 66% were male, 43% current smokers and patients had a mean Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second of % predicted of 50. Three types of costs were calculated: intervention costs, medication costs and exacerbation costs. Outcome measures included the number of hospital-treated exacerbations, cost per prevented hospital-treated exacerbation and cost per Quality Adjusted Life-Year (QALY) gained. Follow-up was 1 year in the basecase analysis. Univariate-, probabilistic sensitivity- and scenario analyses (including long-term follow-up) were performed to assess uncertainty. Results: In the basecase analysis, the average overall costs per patient for the PHARMACOPintervention and usual care were € 2,221 and € 2,448, respectively within the 1-year time horizon. This reflects cost savings of € 227 for the PHARMACOP-intervention. The PHARMACOP-intervention resulted in the prevention of 71 hospital-treated exacerbations (167 for PHARMACOP versus 238 for usual care), i.e. 0.07 (95%CI: 0.04-0.10) incremental hospital-treated exacerbations per patient. In addition, a small (<0.001 QALYs) increase in QALYs was observed. Results showed robust costsavings in various sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Optimization of current pharmacotherapy (e.g. close monitoring of inhalation technique and medication adherence) has been shown to be cost-saving and should be considered before adding new therapies

Influence of single and multiple doses of amifostine on the efficacy and the pharmacokinetics of carboplatin in mice.

We have previously reported that amifostine potentiates the anti-tumour activity of carboplatin in mice. The present study was carried out in well-established human ovarian cancer xenografts OVCAR-3, A2780 and FMa grown subcutaneously in the nude mouse. It was found that a single dose of amifostine resulted in a higher increase in the anti-tumour activity of carboplatin than three doses of amifostine. A single dose of amifostine increased the AUC (area under the curve) values of total platinum in plasma ultrafiltrate (30.1 vs 18.2 microM x h), liver (307.7 vs 236.4 nmol g(-1) x h), kidney (500.8 vs 368.3 nmol g(-1) x h) and OVCAR-3 tumour tissue (184.0 vs 146.8 nmol g(-1) x h). Despite this increase in total platinum, a decrease in platinum (Pt)-DNA adduct levels was observed in liver, kidney and bone marrow, which was significant in liver. In tumour tissue an insignificant increase in Pt-DNA adduct levels, specifically the Pt-GG adduct, was observed after treatment with a single dose of amifostine, which may explain the increase in anti-tumour activity. The increase in the AUC of total platinum was probably caused by a reduction in body temperature, which was most severe after three doses of amifostine. The extreme hypothermia may be the reason that three doses of amifostine resulted in less potentiation of the efficacy of carboplatin

Joint modelling of serological and hospitalization data reveals that high levels of pre-existing immunity and school holidays shaped the influenza A pandemic of 2009 in the Netherlands.

Obtaining a quantitative understanding of the transmission dynamics of influenza A is important for predicting healthcare demand and assessing the likely impact of intervention measures. The pandemic of 2009 provides an ideal platform for developing integrative analyses as it has been studied intensively, and a wealth of data sources is available. Here, we analyse two complementary datasets in a disease transmission framework: cross-sectional serological surveys providing data on infection attack rates, and hospitalization data that convey information on the timing and duration of the pandemic. We estimate key epidemic determinants such as infection and hospitalization rates, and the impact of a school holiday. In contrast to previous approaches, our novel modelling of serological data with mixture distributions provides a probabilistic classification of individual samples (susceptible, immune and infected), propagating classification uncertainties to the transmission model and enabling serological classifications to be informed by hospitalization data. The analyses show that high levels of immunity among persons 20 years and older provide a consistent explanation of the skewed attack rates observed during the pandemic and yield precise estimates of the probability of hospitalization per infection (1-4 years: 0.00096 (95%CrI: 0.00078-0.0012); 5-19 years: 0.00036 (0.00031-0.0044); 20-64 years: 0.0015 (0.00091-0.0020); 65+ years: 0.0084 (0.0028-0.016)). The analyses suggest that in The Netherlands, the school holiday period reduced the number of infectious contacts between 5- and 9-year-old children substantially (estimated reduction: 54%; 95%CrI: 29-82%), thereby delaying the unfolding of the pandemic in The Netherlands by approximately a week

Prolonged persistence of bovine herpesvirus in small cattle herds: a model-based analysis

Herpesviruses can remain dormant in once-infected hosts and, upon reactivation, cause such hosts to become infectious. This phenomenon of latency and reactivation may enable herpesviruses to persist for a long time in small host populations. To quantify the effect of reactivation on persistence, the time to extinction of bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV-1) in small cattle populations was calculated. For realistic parameter values the mean time to extinction is already more than 100 years in a population of 10 animals. In a population of 20 animals the time to extinction is approximately 2000 years. The effects of vaccination on persistence were also studied, revealing that continued vaccination of the whole population could result in much faster eradication. For instance, in an isolated herd of 20 animals BHV-1 could be eradicated in 44 years

Empathy Gaps Between Helpers and Help-Seekers: Implications for Cooperation

Help-seekers and potential helpers often experience an “empathy gap” – an inability to understand each other’s unique perspectives. Both parties are concerned about their reputation, self-esteem, and relationships, but these concerns differ in ways that lead to misinterpretation of the other party’s actions, and, in turn, missed opportunities for cooperation. In this article, we review research that describes the role-specific concerns of helpers and help-seekers. We then review studies of emotional perspective-taking, which can help explain why help-seekers and helpers often experience empathy gaps. We go on to discuss recent work that illustrates the consequences of empathy gaps between helpers and help-seekers—social prediction errors that prevent helping and misguided intentions that can lead to unhelpful help. Finally, we discuss some promising directions for future research

Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock

The control of highly infectious diseases of livestock such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, and avian influenza is fraught with ethical, economic, and public health dilemmas. Attempts to control outbreaks of these pathogens rely on massive culling of infected farms, and farms deemed to be at risk of infection. Conventional approaches usually involve the preventive culling of all farms within a certain radius of an infected farm. Here we propose a novel culling strategy that is based on the idea that farms that have the highest expected number of secondary infections should be culled first. We show that, in comparison with conventional approaches (ring culling), our new method of risk based culling can reduce the total number of farms that need to be culled, the number of culled infected farms (and thus the expected number of human infections in case of a zoonosis), and the duration of the epidemic. Our novel risk based culling strategy requires three pieces of information, viz. the location of all farms in the area at risk, the moments when infected farms are detected, and an estimate of the distance-dependent probability of transmission

Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout

© The Author(s) 2021. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.There is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during the rollout of vaccination programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model that has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence data, hospital admissions, and projected vaccination coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest that the pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities could lead to new pandemic waves, and that substantial control efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on control measures introduced in 2020, we anticipate that relaxing measures completely or to the extent as in autumn 2020 could launch a wave starting in April 2021. Additional waves could be prevented altogether if measures are relaxed as in summer 2020 or in a step-wise manner throughout 2021. We discuss at which point the control of COVID-19 would be achieved for each scenario.G.R., J.V., A.N., M.C.G. were supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) project reference 131_596787873, awarded to G.R. M.V. was supported by the European Union H2020 ERA project (No. 667824 - EXCELLtoINNOV). The contribution of C.H.v.D. was under the auspices of the US Department of Energy (contract number 89233218CNA000001) and supported by the National Institutes of Health (grant number R01-OD011095). MK acknowledges support from the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw) Grant no. 10430022010001.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The impact of trust in healthcare and medication, and beliefs about medication on medication adherence in a Dutch medication-using population

INTRODUCTION: Trust in healthcare and medication, defined as feelings of reassurance and confidence in the healthcare system or medication, may be a key prerequisite before engaging in the use of medication. However, earlier studies have focussed on beliefs about medication rather than trust as predictors of medication adherence. This study therefore aims to simultaneously explore the relationship of trust in healthcare, medication and beliefs about medication, with medication adherence.METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, an online questionnaire was sent out to 1500 members of the Dutch Health Care Consumer Panel of Nivel in November 2018. Respondents were asked to grade their level of trust in healthcare and medication (scale 1-10). The Beliefs About Medicines Questionnaire (BMQ) for general and specific medication beliefs was used to address beliefs, the Medication Adherence Report Scale (MARS-5) to measure medication adherence. Data were analysed using structural equation modelling (SEM) with a backward stepwise approach. Out of 753 people that completed the questionnaire, 407 people used prescription medication and were included in the analyses.RESULTS: A positive association between trust in medication and medication adherence was found (0.044, p &lt; 0.05). BMQ subscales Overuse (-0.083, p &lt; 0.05), Necessity (0.075, p &lt; 0.05) and Concerns (-0.134, p &lt; 0.01) related with medication adherence. BMQ subscale Harm did not relate to medication adherence.CONCLUSION: Trust in medication and beliefs about medication were both individually associated with medication adherence. Healthcare providers should therefore not only focus on patients' medication beliefs, but also on strengthening patients' trust in medication to improve medication adherence.</p