Predicting deadline transgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution

The geographic scaling of biotic interactions

A central tenet of ecology and biogeography is that the broad outlines of species ranges are determined by climate, whereas the effects of biotic interactions are manifested at local scales. While the first proposition is supported by ample evidence, the second is still a matter of controversy. To address this question, we develop a mathematical model that predicts the spatial overlap, i.e. co-occurrence, between pairs of species subject to all possible types of interactions. We then identify the scale of resolution in which predicted range overlaps are lost. We found that co-occurrence arising from positive interactions, such as mutualism (+/+) and commensalism (+/0), are manifested across scales. Negative interactions, such as competition (-/-) and amensalism (-/0), generate checkerboard patterns of co-occurrence that are discernible at finer resolutions but that are lost and increasing scales of resolution. Scale dependence in consumer-resource interactions (+/-) depends on the strength of positive dependencies between species. If the net positive effect is greater than the net negative effect, then interactions scale up similarly to positive interactions. Our results challenge the widely held view that climate alone is sufficient to characterize species distributions at broad scales, but also demonstrate that the spatial signature of competition is unlikely to be discernible beyond local and regional scales. © 2013 The Authors.Peer Reviewe

A Semiotic Approach for Guiding the Visualizing of Time and Space in Enterprise Models

Part 2: Organizational Semiotics and ApplicationsInternational audienceEven if geographical aspects such as location are included already in the Zachman framework (as the where-perspective), it is not common to have detailed geographical aspects included in enterprise models. Cartography is the science of visualizing geographical information in maps. Traditionally the field has not included conceptual relationships that you find in enterprise models. Both cartography and enterprise modelling have developed guidelines for obtaining high quality visualizations. SEQUAL is a quality framework developed for understanding quality of models and modelling languages based on semiotic theory. In cartography such frameworks are not common. An adaptation of SEQUAL in the context of cartographic maps called MAPQUAL has been presented earlier. Differences between quality of maps and quality of conceptual models, pointing to guidelines for combined representations have been performed, and we try in this paper to investigate the utility of these guidelines in a simple trial. The result of the trial is presented, indicating that it is possible to represent conceptual, temporal, and spatial aspects in the same models in many ways, but that the choice of main perspective should depend on participant appropriateness

Technical summary

Human interference with the climate system is occurring. Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change and how risks can be reduced through mitigation and adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of mitigation and adaptation

Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company

Depositie van metalen van de atmosfeer in de Noordzee: modelberekeningen

De resultaten van een berekening van de jaargemiddelde atmosferische depositie van de spoorelementen As, Sb, Cd, Cu, Ni en Pb in de Noordzee worden gepresenteerd. Het model beschrijft de verspreiding in de atmosfeer dichtbij de bron met een Gaussische pluim en gaat voor grotere afstanden over in een doossector model met meerdere lagen in de verticaal. Droge en natte depositie worden beschreven als factor van de deeltjesgrootte en meteorologische variabelen. Emissies van alle Europese landen zijn in de berekening opgenomen. De berekende concentraties in het Noodzee-gebied zijn in het algemeen iets lager dan de overeenkomstige metingen op kustposities. Een verdere evaluatie vergt zowel betere emissieschattingen als betere metingen. De grootste bijdragen aan de depositie van bovenvermelde elementen is afkomstig van emissies van de landen aan de Noordzee: Verenigd Koninkrijk, Belgie, West-Duitsland, Frankrijk en Nederland.Abstract not availableDGMH/BWS-

Influence of real-time hemodynamic monitoring on the outcome of EVAR for ruptured AAA.

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WorkflowNet2BPEL4WS : a tool for translating unstructured workflow processes to readable BPEL

This paper presents WorkflowNet2BPEL4WS a tool to automatically map a graphical workflow model expressed in terms of Workflow Nets (WF-nets) onto BPEL. The Business Process Execution Language for Web Services (BPEL) has emerged as the de-facto standard for implementing processes and is supported by an increasing number of systems (cf. the IBM WebSphere Choreographer and the Oracle BPEL Process Manager). While being a powerful language, BPEL is difficult to use. Its XML representation is very verbose and only readable for the trained eye. It offers many constructs and typically things can be implemented in many ways, e.g., using links and the flow construct or using sequences and switches. As a result only experienced users are able to select the right construct. Some vendors offer a graphical interface that generates BPEL code. However, the graphical representations are a direct reflection of the BPEL code and not easy to use by end-users. Therefore, we provide a mapping from WF-nets to BPEL. This mapping builds on the rich theory of Petri nets and can also be used to map other languages (e.g., UML, EPC, BPMN, etc.) onto BPEL. To evaluate WorkflowNet2BPEL4WS we used more than 100 processes modeled using Protos (the most widely used business process modeling tool in the Netherlands), automatically converted these into CPN Tools, and applied our mapping. The results of these evaluation are very encouraging and show the applicability of our approach

EVAR with permissive hypotension for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms.

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Business process simulation revisited

Computer simulation attempts to mimic real-life or hypothetical behavior on a computer to see how processes or systems can be improved and to predict their performance under different circumstances. Simulation has been successfully applied in many disciplines and is considered to be a relevant and highly applicable tool in Business Process Management (BPM). Unfortunately, in reality the use of simulation is limited. Few organizations actively use simulation. Even organizations that purchase simulation software (stand-alone or embedded in some BPM suite), typically fail to use it continuously over an extended period. This keynote paper highlights some of the problems causing the limited adoption of simulation. For example, simulation models tend to oversimplify the modeling of people working part-time on a process. Also simulation studies typically focus on the steady-state behavior of business processes while managers are more interested in short-term results (a fast forward button into the future) for operational decision making. This paper will point out innovative simulation approaches leveraging on recent breakthroughs in process mining