Dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional factor space:forecasting

The paper compares the pseudo real-time forecasting performance of three Dynamic Factor Models: (i) The standard principal-component model introduced by Stock and Watson in 2002, (ii) The model based on generalized principal components, introduced by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin in 2005, (iii) The model recently proposed by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Zaffaroni in 2015. We employ a large monthly dataset of macroeconomic and financial time series for the U.S. economy, which includes the Great Moderation, the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery (an update of the so-called Stock and Watson dataset). Using a rolling window for estimation and prediction, we find that (iii) significantly outperforms (i) and (ii) in the Great Moderation period for both Industrial Production and Inflation, that (iii) is also the best method for Inflation over the full sample. However, (iii) is outperformed by (ii) and (i) over the full sample for Industrial Production

Repeating fast radio bursts with WSRT/Apertif

Context. Repeating fast radio bursts (FRBs) present excellent opportunities to identify FRB progenitors and host environments as well as to decipher the underlying emission mechanism. Detailed studies of repeating FRBs might also hold clues as to the origin of FRBs as a population. Aims. We aim to detect bursts from the first two repeating FRBs, FRB 121102 (R1) and FRB 180814.J0422+73 (R2), and to characterise their repeat statistics. We also want to significantly improve the sky localisation of R2 and identify its host galaxy. Methods. We used the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope to conduct extensive follow-up of these two repeating FRBs. The new phased-array feed system, Apertif, allows one to cover the entire sky position uncertainty of R2 with fine spatial resolution in a single pointing. The data were searched for bursts around the known dispersion measures of the two sources. We characterise the energy distribution and the clustering of detected R1 bursts. Results. We detected 30 bursts from R1. The non-Poissonian nature is clearly evident from the burst arrival times, which is consistent with earlier claims. Our measurements indicate a dispersion measure (DM) of 563.5(2) pc cm(-3), suggesting a significant increase in DM over the past few years. Assuming a constant position angle across the burst, we place an upper limit of 8% on the linear polarisation fraction for the brightest burst in our sample. We did not detect any bursts from R2. Conclusions. A single power-law might not fit the R1 burst energy distribution across the full energy range or widely separated detections. Our observations provide improved constraints on the clustering of R1 bursts. Our stringent upper limits on the linear polarisation fraction imply a significant depolarisation, either intrinsic to the emission mechanism or caused by the intervening medium at 1400 MHz, which is not observed at higher frequencies. The non-detection of any bursts from R2, despite nearly 300 h of observations, implies either a highly clustered nature of the bursts, a steep spectral index, or a combination of the two assuming that the source is still active. Another possibility is that R2 has turned off completely, either permanently or for an extended period of time

Factors associated with worse lung function in cystic fibrosis patients with persistent staphylococcus aureus

Background Staphylococcus aureus is an important pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF). However, it is not clear which factors are associated with worse lung function in patients with persistent S. aureus airway cultures. Our main hypothesis was that patients with high S. aureus density in their respiratory specimens would more likely experience worsening of their lung disease than patients with low bacterial loads. Methods Therefore, we conducted an observational prospective longitudinal multi-center study and assessed the association between lung function and S. aureus bacterial density in respiratory samples, co-infection with other CF-pathogens, nasal S. aureus carriage, clinical status, antibiotic therapy, IL-6- and IgG-levels against S. aureus virulence factors. Results 195 patients from 17 centers were followed; each patient had an average of 7 visits. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and generalized linear mixed models. Our main hypothesis was only supported for patients providing throat specimens indicating that patients with higher density experienced a steeper lung function decline (p<0.001). Patients with exacerbations (n = 60), S. aureus small-colony variants (SCVs, n = 84) and co-infection with Stenotrophomonas maltophilia (n = 44) had worse lung function (p = 0.0068; p = 0.0011; p = 0.0103). Patients with SCVs were older (p = 0.0066) and more often treated with trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (p = 0.0078). IL-6 levels positively correlated with decreased lung function (p<0.001), S. aureus density in sputa (p = 0.0016), SCVs (p = 0.0209), exacerbations (p = 0.0041) and co-infections with S. maltophilia (p = 0.0195) or A. fumigatus (p = 0.0496). Conclusions In CF-patients with chronic S. aureus cultures, independent risk factors for worse lung function are high bacterial density in throat cultures, exacerbations, elevated IL-6 levels, presence of S. aureus SCVs and co-infection with S. maltophilia

Review of journal of cardiovascular magnetic resonance 2010

There were 75 articles published in the Journal of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance (JCMR) in 2010, which is a 34% increase in the number of articles since 2009. The quality of the submissions continues to increase, and the editors were delighted with the recent announcement of the JCMR Impact Factor of 4.33 which showed a 90% increase since last year. Our acceptance rate is approximately 30%, but has been falling as the number of articles being submitted has been increasing. In accordance with Open-Access publishing, the JCMR articles go on-line as they are accepted with no collating of the articles into sections or special thematic issues. Last year for the first time, the Editors summarized the papers for the readership into broad areas of interest or theme, which we felt would be useful to practitioners of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) so that you could review areas of interest from the previous year in a single article in relation to each other and other recent JCMR articles [1]. This experiment proved very popular with a very high rate of downloading, and therefore we intend to continue this review annually. The papers are presented in themes and comparison is drawn with previously published JCMR papers to identify the continuity of thought and publication in the journal. We hope that you find the open-access system increases wider reading and citation of your papers, and that you will continue to send your quality manuscripts to JCMR for publication

Molecular characterization of MRSA collected during national surveillance between 2008 and 2019 in the Netherlands

Background.Although the Netherlands is a country with a low endemic level, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) poses a significant health care problem. Therefore, high coverage national MRSA surveillance has been in place since 1989. To monitor possible changes in the type-distribution and emergence of resistance and virulence, MRSA isolates are molecularly characterized.Methods.All 43,321 isolates from 36,520 persons, collected 2008-2019, were typed by multiple-locus variable number tandem repeats analysis (MLVA) with simultaneous PCR detection of the mecA, mecC and lukF-PV genes, indicative for PVL. Next-generation sequencing data of 4991 isolates from 4798 persons were used for whole genome multi-locus sequence typing (wgMLST) and identification of resistance and virulence genes.Results.We show temporal change in the molecular characteristics of the MRSA population with the proportion of PVL-positive isolates increasing from 15% in 2008-2010 to 25% in 2017-2019. In livestock-associated MRSA obtained from humans, PVL-positivity increases to 6% in 2017-2019 with isolates predominantly from regions with few pig farms. wgMLST reveals the presence of 35 genogroups with distinct resistance, virulence gene profiles and specimen origin. Typing shows prolonged persistent MRSA carriage with a mean carriage period of 407 days. There is a clear spatial and a weak temporal relationship between isolates that clustered in wgMLST, indicative for regional spread of MRSA strains.Conclusions.Using molecular characterization, this exceptionally large study shows genomic changes in the MRSA population at the national level. It reveals waxing and waning of types and genogroups and an increasing proportion of PVL-positive MRSA.A group of bacteria that cause difficult-to-treat infections in humans is methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). The aim of this study was to monitor changes in the spread of MRSA, their disease causing potential and resistance to antibiotics used to treat MRSA infections. MRSA from patients and their contacts in the Netherlands were collected over a period of 12 years and characterized. This revealed new types of MRSA emerged and others disappeared. An increasing number of MRSA produces a protein called PVL toxin, enabling MRSA to cause more severe infections. Also, some people appear to carry MRSA without any disease for more than a year. These findings suggest an increasing disease potential of MRSA and possible unnoticed sources of infection. Consequently, it is important to maintain monitoring of these infections to minimize MRSA spread.Schouls et al. characterize 43,321 methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates obtained between 2008 and 2019 in the Netherlands. Genomic changes occur in the MRSA population, with increases in the proportion of PVL-positive MRSA.Molecular basis of bacterial pathogenesis, virulence factors and antibiotic resistanc