Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014–2015eruption

Abstract. Lava flow simulations help to better understand volcanic hazards and may assist emergency preparedness at active volcanoes. We demonstrate that at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, such simulations can explain the 2014–2015 lava flow crisis and therefore provide a valuable base to better prepare for the next inevitable eruption. We conducted topographic mapping in the field and a satellite-based remote sensing analysis. We produced the first topographic model of the 2014–2015 lava flow from combined terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) and photogrammetric data. This high-resolution topographic information facilitates lava flow volume estimates of 43.7 ± 5.2 × 106 m3 from the vertical difference between pre- and posteruptive topographies. Both the pre-eruptive and updated digital elevation models (DEMs) serve as the fundamental input data for lava flow simulations using the well-established DOWNFLOW algorithm. Based on thousands of simulations, we assess the lava flow hazard before and after the 2014–2015 eruption. We find that, although the lava flow hazard has changed significantly, it remains high at the locations of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption. This result is of particular importance as villagers have already started to rebuild the settlements. We also analysed satellite radar imagery acquired by the German TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite to map lava flow emplacement over time. We obtain the lava flow boundaries every 6 to 11 days during the eruption, which assists the interpretation and evaluation of the lava flow model performance. Our results highlight the fact that lava flow hazards change as a result of modifications of the local topography due to lava flow emplacement. This implies the need for up-to-date topographic information in order to assess lava flow hazards. We also emphasize that areas that were once overrun by lava flows are not necessarily safer, even if local lava flow thicknesses exceed the average lava flow thickness. Our observations will be important for the next eruption of Fogo Volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises and disaster response efforts at basaltic volcanoes elsewhere in the world

Integration of micro-gravity and geodetic data to constrain shallow system mass changes at Krafla Volcano, N Iceland

New and previously published micro-gravity data are combined with InSAR data, precise levelling and GPS measurements to produce a model for the processes operating at Krafla volcano, 20 years after its most recent eruption. The data have been divided into two periods: from 1990 to 1995 and from 1996 to 2003 and show that the rate of deflation at Krafla is decaying exponentially. The net micro-gravity change at the centre of the caldera is shown, using the measured Free Air Gradient, to be -85 μGal for the first and -100 μGal for the second period. After consideration of the effects of water extraction by the geothermal power station within the caldera, the net gravity decreases are -73 ± 17 μGal for the first and -65 ± 17 μGal for the second period. These decreases are interpreted in terms of magma drainage. Following a Mogi point source model we calculate the mass decrease to be ~2 x 1010 kg/yr reflecting a drainage rate of ~0.23 m3/s, similar to the ~0.13 m3/s drainage rate previously found at Askja volcano, N-Iceland. Based on the evidence for deeper magma reservoirs and the similarity between the two volcanic systems, we suggest a pressure-link between Askja and Krafla at deeper levels (at the lower crust or the crust-mantle boundary). After the Krafla fires, co-rifting pressure decrease of a deep source at Krafla stimulated the subsequent inflow of magma, eventually affecting conditions along the plate boundary in N-Iceland, as far away as Askja. We anticipate that the pressure of the deeper reservoir at Krafla will reach a critical value and eventually magma will rise from there to the shallow magma chamber, possibly initiating a new rifting episode. We have demonstrated that by examining micro-gravity and geodetic data, our knowledge of active volcanic systems can be significantly improved

Thermal Remote Sensing for Global Volcano Monitoring: Experiences From the MIROVA System

Volcanic activity is always accompanied by the transfer of heat from the Earth’s crust to the atmosphere. This heat can be measured from space and its measurement is a very useful tool for detecting volcanic activity on a global scale. MIROVA (Middle Infrared Observation of Volcanic Activity) is an automatic volcano hot spot detection system, based on the analysis of MODIS data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The system is able to detect, locate and quantify thermal anomalies in near real-time, by providing, on a dedicated website (www.mirovaweb.it), infrared images and thermal flux time-series on over 200 volcanoes worldwide. Thanks to its simple interface and intuitive representation of the data, MIROVA is currently used by several volcano observatories for daily monitoring activities and reporting. In this paper, we present the architecture of the system and we provide a state of the art on satellite thermal data usage for operational volcano monitoring and research. In particular, we describe the contribution that the thermal data have provided in order to detect volcanic unrest, to forecast eruptions and to depict trends and patterns during eruptive crisis. The current limits and requirements to improve the quality of the data, their distribution and interpretation are also discussed, in the light of the experience gained in recent years within the volcanological community. The results presented clearly demonstrate how the open access of satellite thermal data and the sharing of derived products allow a better understanding of ongoing volcanic phenomena, and therefore constitute an essential requirement for the assessment of volcanic hazards

Thermal Remote Sensing for Global Volcano Monitoring: Experiences From the MIROVA System

Volcanic activity is always accompanied by the transfer of heat from the Earth's crust to the atmosphere. This heat can be measured from space and its measurement is a very useful tool for detecting volcanic activity on a global scale. MIROVA (Middle Infrared Observation of Volcanic Activity) is an automatic volcano hot spot detection system, based on the analysis of MODIS data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The system is able to detect, locate and quantify thermal anomalies in near real-time, by providing, on a dedicated website (www.mirovaweb.it), infrared images and thermal flux time-series on over 200 volcanoes worldwide. Thanks to its simple interface and intuitive representation of the data, MIROVA is currently used by several volcano observatories for daily monitoring activities and reporting. In this paper, we present the architecture of the system and we provide a state of the art on satellite thermal data usage for operational volcano monitoring and research. In particular, we describe the contribution that the thermal data have provided in order to detect volcanic unrest, to forecast eruptions and to depict trends and patterns during eruptive crisis. The current limits and requirements to improve the quality of the data, their distribution and interpretation are also discussed, in the light of the experience gained in recent years within the volcanological community. The results presented clearly demonstrate how the open access of satellite thermal data and the sharing of derived products allow a better understanding of ongoing volcanic phenomena, and therefore constitute an essential requirement for the assessment of volcanic hazards. Peer reviewe

The European Volcano Observatories and their use of the aviation colour code system

Volcano observatories (VOs) around the world are required to maintain surveillance of their volcanoes and inform civil protection and aviation authorities about impending eruptions. They often work through consolidated procedures to respond to volcanic crises in a timely manner and provide a service to the community aimed at reducing the potential impact of an eruption. Within the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) framework of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), designated State Volcano Observatories (SVOs) are asked to operate a colour coded system designed to inform the aviation community about the status of a volcano and the expected threats associated. Despite the IAVW documentation defining the different colour-coded levels, operating the aviation colour code in a standardised way is not easy, as sometimes, different SVOs adopt different strategies on how, when, and why to change it. Following two European VOs and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) workshops, the European VOs agreed to present an overview on how they operate the aviation colour code. The comparative analysis presented here reveals that not all VOs in Europe use this system as part of their operational response, mainly because of a lack of volcanic eruptions since the aviation colour code was officially established, or the absence of a formal designation as an SVO. We also note that the VOs that do regularly use aviation colour code operate it differently depending on the frequency and styles of eruptions, the historical eruptive activity, the nature of the unrest, the monitoring level, institutional norms, previous experiences, and on the agreement they may have with the local Air Transport Navigation providers. This study shows that even though the aviation colour code system was designed to provide a standard, its usage strongly depends on the institutional subjectivity in responding to volcano emergencies. Some common questions have been identified across the different (S)VOs that will need to be addressed by ICAO to have a more harmonised approach and usage of the aviation colour code

Towards coordinated regional multi-satellite InSAR volcano observations:results from the Latin America pilot project

Within Latin America, about 319 volcanoes have been active in the Holocene, but 202 of these volcanoes have no seismic, deformation or gas monitoring. Following the 2012 Santorini Report on satellite Earth Observation and Geohazards, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) developed a 4-year pilot project (2013-2017) to demonstrate how satellite observations can be used to monitor large numbers of volcanoes cost-effectively, particularly in areas with scarce instrumentation and/or difficult access. The pilot aims to improve disaster risk management (DRM) by working directly with the volcano observatories that are governmentally responsible for volcano monitoring as well as with the international space agencies (ESA, CSA, ASI, DLR, JAXA, NASA, CNES). The goal is to make sure that the most useful data are collected at each volcano following the guidelines of the Santorini report that observation frequency is related to volcano activity, and to communicate the results to the local institutions in a timely fashion. Here we highlight how coordinated multi-satellite observations have been used by volcano observatories to monitor volcanoes and respond to crises. Our primary tool is measurements of ground deformation made by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), which have been used in conjunction with other observations to determine the alert level at these volcanoes, served as an independent check on ground sensors, guided the deployment of ground instruments, and aided situational awareness. During this time period, we find 26 volcanoes deforming, including 18 of the 28 volcanoes that erupted – those eruptions without deformation were less than 2 on the VEI scale. Another 7 volcanoes were restless and the volcano observatories requested satellite observations, but no deformation was detected. We describe the lessons learned about the data products and information that are most needed by the volcano observatories in the different countries using information collected by questionnaires. We propose a practical strategy for regional to global satellite volcano monitoring for use by volcano observatories in Latin America and elsewhere to realize the vision of the Santorini report

A geophysical study of volcanic processes at a persistently active volcano and at two calderas in a state of unrest

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

A Permanent, Real-Time Monitoring Network for the Volcanoes Mount Scenery and The Quill in the Caribbean Netherlands

The stratovolcanoes of Mt. Scenery at Saba and The Quill at St. Eustatius in the Caribbean Netherlands, with a total population of about 5200 people, are part of the active volcanic arc of the Lesser Antilles but lacked a multiparameter volcano and earthquake monitoring system until the beginning of 2018. The permanent seismic network on the islands has been built up since 2006 and was expanded in 2018 with one permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sensor at each volcano and a temperature logger on Saba. We provide technical details of all equipment and the installation procedures, and we show the preliminary results of GNSS data processing. Deploying a remote, permanent network of different sensor types under tropical island conditions and sustaining access to real-time high-quality data to monitor the state of volcanoes is an underappreciated challenge. Despite the problems encountered, we operated the network with an overall availability of 84.5% in the first half of 2018 compared to 70.3% in the years before. The main unresolved problem affecting seismic data quality is related to sudden out-of-balance seismometer mass positions. We provide a complete overview of our monitoring network, the various challenges encountered, and the solutions applied, and we address future plans