Statistics for citizen science: extracting signals of change from noisy ecological data

1. Policy-makers increasingly demand robust measures of biodiversity change over short time periods. Long-term monitoring schemes provide high-quality data, often on an annual basis, but are taxonomically and geographically restricted. By contrast, opportunistic biological records are relatively unstructured but vast in quantity. Recently, these data have been applied to increasingly elaborate science and policy questions, using a range of methods. At present we lack a firm understanding of which methods, if any, are capable of delivering unbiased trend estimates on policy-relevant timescales. 2. We identified a set of candidate methods that employ data filtering criteria and/or correction factors to deal with variation in recorder activity. We designed a computer simulation to compare the statistical properties of these methods under a suite of realistic data collection scenarios. We measured the Type I error rates of each method-scenario combination, as well as the power to detect genuine trends. 3. We found that simple methods produce biased trend estimates, and/or had low power. Most methods are robust to variation in sampling effort, but biases in spatial coverage, sampling effort per visit, and detectability, as well as turnover in community composition all induced some methods to fail. No method was wholly unaffected by all forms of variation in recorder activity, although some performed well enough to be useful. 4. We warn against the use of simple methods. Sophisticated methods that model the data collection process offer the greatest potential to estimate timely trends, notably Frescalo and Occupancy-Detection models. 5. The potential of these methods and the value of opportunistic data would be further enhanced by assessing the validity of model assumptions and by capturing small amounts of information about sampling intensity at the point of data collection

Two new species of zooplanktivorous haplochromine cichlids from Lake Victoria, Tanzania

Two new species of zooplanktivorous haplochromine cichlids from Lake Victoria, Tanzania, are described and illustrated. These species closely resemble each other. Their affinities to other zooplanktivorous haplochromines from Lake Victoria are discussed. Haplochromis argens sp. n., which featured under nicknames (mainly H. “argens”) in more than 50 papers, was caught both in the Mwanza Gulf and the Emin Pasha Gulf, whereas H. goldschmidti sp. n. was only found in the Emin Pasha Gulf. Of the latter species only males are available, but it seems unlikely that it represents a case of male colour polymorphism as several presumably unrelated characters differ in sympatry between the two species, suggesting that there is no gene flow. Statistical analysis revealed that the overall difference between the two species is greater than that between the populations from the two locations. Body depth of the two species in sympatry in the Emin Pasha Gulf was more similar than that of H. goldschmidti sp. n. and the allopatric population of H. argens sp. n. from the Mwanza Gulf, which may indicate an overall environmental effect. However, several measurements related to the width of snout and mouth differed more between the populations of the two species in sympatry than between the allopatric populations. In contrast to a group of zooplanktivorous species that recovered successfully after environmental changes in the lake, H. argens sp. n. is among a group that became extremely rare and probably is in danger of extinction; the conservation status of H. goldschmidti sp. n. is currently unknown

Extracting robust trends in species’ distributions from unstructured opportunistic data: a comparison of methods

<p>This manuscript and supplementary information were submitted for review at Methods in Ecology & Evolution in December 2013. </p

Extracting robust trends in species’ distributions from unstructured opportunistic data: a comparison of methods

<p>Manuscript and supplementary information submitted to Methods in Ecology & Evolution in Decmeber 2013</p

Rapid enigmatic decline drives the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) to the edge of extinction in the Netherlands

In the Netherlands, the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) is at the edge of its geographic range and is restricted to three small populations in the extreme south of the country. Despite the species being listed as 'Endangered' on the national Red List, the situation was considered to be stable. However, from 2008 onwards dead individuals were seen on more than one occasion. A sharp decline in numbers has been observed since 2010 (96%; P < 0.01), but we were unable to attribute this to any known cause of amphibian decline, such as chytridiomycosis, ranavirus or habitat degradation. The present work describes this enigmatic decline, and we discuss these results in the context of possible causes