Beyond Frozen Conflict Scenarios for the Separatist Disputes of Eastern Europe. CEPS Paperback

This book forms part of a wider project on the relations between the European Union and Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, and in particular the Association Agreements and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs) between these three states and the European Union. The wider project was begun in 2015 in the aftermath of the Maidan uprising at the beginning of 2014, which had been provoked when President Yanukovich reneged over the signing of Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU. Following Yanukovich’s flight to Russia, the Association Agreement was duly signed later in 2014. The agreements with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine have a substantial common content, while differing in various details. Overall, they provide an association model of unprecedented extent and depth. Democratic political values are at the heart of the agreements, while the economic content goes far beyond classic free trade agreements to include a wholesale approximation of EU internal market regulatory law. The purpose of our wider project was first of all to explain the complex content of the Association Agreements and DCFTAs, which was achieved in a series of comprehensive handbooks published at www.3dcftas.eu. However, the agreements contain only short and simple articles on conflict prevention and management, without meaningful operational content. This was notwithstanding the fact that the EU considers itself, for its own historical reasons, to have a special vocation in conflict prevention and resolution. In addition, Georgia and Moldova were already the sites of unresolved separatist conflicts originating around the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades ago, namely Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Transdniestria in Moldova, to which we have added the case of the Nagorny Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan. On top of this legacy, the Maidan uprising led to the Russian annexation of Crimea and its hybrid war in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of the Donbas. The Donbas thus joined the old ‘frozen conflicts’. In the light of the above, CEPS took the initiative to examine all five unresolved conflicts, to assess where these disputes seem to be heading, and what different scenarios could be imagined for their future, including how the European Union might become more engaged. Indeed, while none of the conflicts are resolved, none are for that matter ‘frozen’. Our first practical priority was to find an author to undertake a comprehensive study of the Donbas, since conditions there make it practically impossible for any analysts from the government-controlled part of Ukraine or from Europe to safely enter these territories for research purposes. We were therefore very fortunate to find Nikolaus von Twickel who had recently been travelling in the Donbas as part of the OSCE Mission there, and is now an independent analyst. For the other four ‘old’ conflicts we were also most fortunate to bring in Thomas de Waal, who has been a leading scholar of the region for some decades, and was willing to bring the stories of these conflicts up to date. The two authors were able to address the complete set of conflicts with a consistent analytical approach, as will be evident from reading the sets of scenarios. We express our warm appreciation towards Sweden and the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida) for their support to the entire project. This volume looks at future prospects for the string of unresolved conflicts that continue to plague the post-Soviet world. Four of them date back to the period when the USSR began to break up in the late 1980s. A new conflict, with many different elements and some similarities, was added to the list in 2014: the Donbas in eastern Ukraine. The open confrontation between Russia and Ukraine over the Donbas and Crimea not only destroyed relations between Moscow and Kyiv but changed politics across the region, shaking up the dynamics of the four existing protracted territorial conflicts over Abkhazia, Nagorny Karabakh, South Ossetia and Transdniestria. The five post-Soviet conflicts are often called ‘frozen’, but this is a misnomer. Although the peace processes around them often look frozen, the situations themselves are anything but frozen and are constantly changing. Two of them, over the Donbas and Nagorny Karabakh, are either ongoing or close to violence. Each dispute has its own history, character and context, which has grown more distinctive over time and has been further shaped by the confrontation over Ukraine. Each continues to evolve. Here we chart scenarios for how these conflicts may develop further with the aim of focusing policymakers’ thinking on which tendencies are dangerous and which ones can be encouraged. There are many moving parts to these situations and complacency is not an option

A Spreading Danger: Time for a New Policy towards Chechnya. CEPS Policy Briefs No. 68, 1 April 2005

The ongoing conflict in and around Chechnya is helping to feed the wider international jihadi movement, and is endangering the West as well as Russia. The next “soft target” of North Caucasian terrorism could be a Western one. Mutual recriminations over the conflict have badly damaged relations between Russia and the West. While most of the blame for this lies with Russian policies, the Western approach to the issue has often been unhelpful and irresponsible. Denunciations of Russian behaviour have not been matched by a real understanding of the Chechen conflict or a real commitment to help. In their own interest, Western countries need urgently to address the crisis in the North Caucasus. This requires them to recognize the seriousness of the threat, to open a real dialogue on cooperation with Russia rather than simply making criticisms, and to make a serious economic contribution to the region

Sudan’s political marketplace in 2021: public and political finance, the Juba agreement and contests

This paper examines the continuities and changes in Sudan’s political economy and political marketplace in the two years since the popular uprising that overthrew the regime of former president Omar alBashir, and the subsequent formation of a military-civilian transitional government. The government of Sovereignty Council Chairman Abd al-Fattah al-Burhan and Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has the stated goals (among others) of transitioning to full civilian government, achieving peace with armed groups, and stabilizing and reforming the economy. Progress has been achieved on all these fronts. Nonetheless, key aspects of Sudan’s political economy remain unchanged, especially underlying hyper-exploitation of labour and natural resources, a prominent role for businesses associated with the leaders of the security sector, and peace agreements incentivized by promises of material rewards provided through governmental office. Transactional politics continue to trump institutional and civic politics, making it harder to reform these aspects of an inequitable and predatory economy

Puberty Suppression in a Gender-Dysphoric Adolescent: A 22-Year Follow-Up

Puberty suppression by means of gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) analogs is considered a diagnostic aid in gender dysphoric adolescents. However, there are also concerns about potential risks, such as poor outcome or post-surgical regret, adverse effects on metabolic and endocrine status, impaired increment of bone mass, and interference with brain development. This case report is on a 22-year follow-up of a female-to-male transsexual, treated with GnRH analogs at 13 years of age and considered eligible for androgen treatment at age 17, and who had gender reassignment surgery at 20 and 22 years of age. At follow-up, he indicated no regrets about his treatment. He was functioning well psychologically, intellectually, and socially; however, he experienced some feelings of sadness about choices he had made in a long-lasting intimate relationship. There were no clinical signs of a negative impact on brain development. He was physically in good health, and metabolic and endocrine parameters were within reference ranges. Bone mineral density was within the normal range for both sexes. His final height was short as compared to Dutch males; however, his body proportions were within normal range. This first report on long-term effects of puberty suppression suggests that negative side effects are limited and that it can be a useful additional tool in the diagnosis and treatment of gender dysphoric adolescents

Iodospirocyclization of Tryptamine-Derived Isocyanides:Formal Total Synthesis of Aspidofractinine

The N-iodosuccinimide-mediated spirocyclization of tryptamine-derived isocyanides to generate spiroindolenines is reported. The products contain both an imine and an imidoyl iodide as flexible handles for follow-up chemistry. Nucleophilic addition typically occurs chemoselectively on the imine moiety with complete diastereoselectivity, providing opportunities for the construction of complex molecular frameworks. The synthetic potential of the method was showcased in the formal total synthesis of (±)-aspidofractinine

Ravens Reconcile after Aggressive Conflicts with Valuable Partners

Reconciliation, a post-conflict affiliative interaction between former opponents, is an important mechanism for reducing the costs of aggressive conflict in primates and some other mammals as it may repair the opponents' relationship and reduce post-conflict distress. Opponents who share a valuable relationship are expected to be more likely to reconcile as for such partners the benefits of relationship repair should outweigh the risk of renewed aggression. In birds, however, post-conflict behavior has thus far been marked by an apparent absence of reconciliation, suggested to result either from differing avian and mammalian strategies or because birds may not share valuable relationships with partners with whom they engage in aggressive conflict. Here, we demonstrate the occurrence of reconciliation in a group of captive subadult ravens (Corvus corax) and show that it is more likely to occur after conflicts between partners who share a valuable relationship. Furthermore, former opponents were less likely to engage in renewed aggression following reconciliation, suggesting that reconciliation repairs damage caused to their relationship by the preceding conflict. Our findings suggest not only that primate-like valuable relationships exist outside the pair bond in birds, but that such partners may employ the same mechanisms in birds as in primates to ensure that the benefits afforded by their relationships are maintained even when conflicts of interest escalate into aggression. These results provide further support for a convergent evolution of social strategies in avian and mammalian species

Diasporas and secessionist conflicts : the mobilization of the Armenian, Albanian and Chechen diasporas

This article examines the impact of diasporas on secessionist conflicts, focusing on the Albanian, Armenian and Chechen diasporas and the conflicts in Kosovo, Karabakh and Chechnya during the 1990s. How do diasporas radicalize these conflicts? I argue that despite differences in diaspora communal characteristics and the types of the secessionist conflicts, a common pattern of mobilization develops. Large-scale diasporic support for secessionism emerges only after independence is proclaimed by the local elites. From that point onwards diasporas become engaged in a conflict spiral, and transnational coalitions are formed between local secessionist and diaspora groups. Depending on the organizational strength of the local strategic centre and the diasporic institutions, these coalitions endure or dissipate. Diasporas exert radicalization influences on the conflict spiral on two specific junctures – when grave violations of human rights occur in the homeland and when local moderate elites start losing credibility that they can achieve the secessionist goal

Puberty Suppression in a Gender-Dysphoric Adolescent: A 22-Year Follow-Up

Puberty suppression by means of gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) analogs is considered a diagnostic aid in gender dysphoric adolescents. However, there are also concerns about potential risks, such as poor outcome or post-surgical regret, adverse effects on metabolic and endocrine status, impaired increment of bone mass, and interference with brain development. This case report is on a 22-year follow-up of a female-to-male transsexual, treated with GnRH analogs at 13 years of age and considered eligible for androgen treatment at age 17, and who had gender reassignment surgery at 20 and 22 years of age. At follow-up, he indicated no regrets about his treatment. He was functioning well psychologically, intellectually, and socially; however, he experienced some feelings of sadness about choices he had made in a long-lasting intimate relationship. There were no clinical signs of a negative impact on brain development. He was physically in good health, and metabolic and endocrine parameters were within reference ranges. Bone mineral density was within the normal range for both sexes. His final height was short as compared to Dutch males; however, his body proportions were within normal range. This first report on long-term effects of puberty suppression suggests that negative side effects are limited and that it can be a useful additional tool in the diagnosis and treatment of gender dysphoric adolescents

Observational pain assessment in older persons with dementia in four countries:observer agreement of items and factor structure of the Pain Assessment in Impaired Cognition

Background: Recognition of pain in people with dementia is challenging. Observational scales have been developed, but there is a need to harmonize and improve the assessment process. In EU initiative COST-Action TD1005, 36 promising items were selected from existing scales to be tested further. We aimed to study the observer agreement of each item, and to analyse the factor structure of the complete set. Methods: One hundred and ninety older persons with dementia were recruited in four different countries (Italy, Serbia, Spain and The Netherlands) from different types of healthcare facilities. Patients represented a convenience sample, with no pre-selection on presence of (suspected) pain. The Pain Assessment in Impaired Cognition (PAIC, research version) item pool includes facial expressions of pain (15 items), body movements (10 items) and vocalizations (11 items). Participants were observed by health professionals in two situations, at rest and during movement. Intrarater and interrater reliability was analysed by percentage agreement. The factor structure was examined with principal component analysis with orthogonal rotation. Results: Health professionals performed observations in 40–57 patients in each country. Intrarater and interrater agreement was generally high (≥70%). However, for some facial expression items, agreement was sometimes below 70%. Factor analyses showed a six-component solution, which were named as follows: Vocal pain expression, Face anatomical descriptors, Protective body movements, Vocal defence, Tension and Lack of affect. Conclusions: Observation of PAIC items can be done reliably in healthcare settings. Observer agreement is quite promising already without extensive training. Significance: In this international project, promising items from existing observational pain scales were identified and evaluated regarding their reliability as an alternative to pain self-report in people with dementia. Analysis on factor structure helped to understand the character of the items. Health professionals from four countries using four different European languages were able to rate items reliably. The results contributed to an informed reduction of items for a clinical observer scale (Pain Assessment in Impaired Cognition scale with 15 items: PAIC15)