Inferring the 1985-2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes using Bayesian structural time series and synthetic controls

AbstractBackgroundMobile phone use has been increasing rapidly in the past decades and, in parallel, so has the annual incidence of certain types of brain cancers. However, it remains unclear whether this correlation is coincidental or whether use of mobile phones may cause the development, promotion or progression of specific cancers. The 1985–2014 incidence of selected brain cancer subtypes in England were analyzed and compared to counterfactual ‘synthetic control’ timeseries.MethodsAnnual 1985–2014 incidence of malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, and malignant neoplasms of the temporal and parietal lobes in England were modelled based on population-level covariates using Bayesian structural time series models assuming 5,10 and 15year minimal latency periods. Post-latency counterfactual ‘synthetic England’ timeseries were nowcast based on covariate trends. The impact of mobile phone use was inferred from differences between measured and modelled time series.ResultsThere is no evidence of an increase in malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, or malignant neoplasms of the parietal lobe not predicted in the ‘synthetic England’ time series. Malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe however, have increased faster than expected. A latency period of 10years reflected the earliest latency period when this was measurable and related to mobile phone penetration rates, and indicated an additional increase of 35% (95% Credible Interval 9%:59%) during 2005–2014; corresponding to an additional 188 (95%CI 48–324) cases annually.ConclusionsA causal factor, of which mobile phone use (and possibly other wireless equipment) is in agreement with the hypothesized temporal association, is related to an increased risk of developing malignant neoplasms in the temporal lobe

Self-discrepancy and MMORPGs: testing the moderating effects of avatar identification and pathological gaming in world of warcraft

Previous research has shown that MMORPG players create avatars that are considered to possess more ideal personality traits than their actual selves. More specifically, Bessière, Seay and Kiesler (2007) have demonstrated that for the personality traits conscientiousness, extraversion and neuroticism, the mean discrepancies between gamers' ideal self and avatar are significantly smaller than those between the gamers' ideal and actual self. These findings are automatically attributed to the assumption that gamers use their avatars to alleviate self-discrepancy. This line of reasoning is supported by a recent theoretical account by Klimmt, Hefner and Vorder (2009). They argue that video games enable an experiential merger of the player with their game avatar, which affords a temporary reduction of the psychological distress that is associated with a discrepancy between the self and the ideal self. Unfortunately, Bessière et al.'s (2007) study fails to provide definitive evidence for this assumption. Whereas the smaller distance between avatar and ideal self indicates that players see their avatar as more ideal, this does not mean that they identify with their avatar and use it to temporarily relieve self-discrepancy. In fact, there are several alternative explanations. First of all, fantasy game characters by default possess characteristics that can be deemed more ideal. Moreover, gamers may assemble an avatar with ideal characteristics to facilitate their game play rather than because they relate these characteristics to themselves. Consequently, a meaningful association, i.e. identification, between WoW players and their avatars is a prerequisite for supporting the self-discrepancy thesis. Hence our first hypothesis posits that (H1) in comparison to gamers with a low level of avatar identification, gamers with a high level of avatar identification perceive the distance between their ideal self and avatar as smaller than the distance between their ideal self and actual self. Secondly, we explore the possibility that pathological gaming can be related to a desire to reduce self-discrepancy by evaluating whether gamers with a tendency towards pathological gaming have a stronger desire to reduce self-discrepancy. Research has indicated that the activity of advancing an avatar, making it as ideal as possible, requires a significant amount of commitment and thus can be expected to be a factor in explaining pathological gaming (Ducheneaut, Yee, Nickell, & Moore, 2006; Hsu, Wen, & Wu, 2009). Withal, previous studies have confirmed the relation between pathological gaming and lower levels of psychological well-being (Lemmens, Valkenburg, & Peter, 2009; Lo, Wang, & Fang, 2005). Given these findings, we propose a second hypothesis (H2), stating that in comparison to gamers with a weak tendency towards pathological gaming, gamers with a strong tendency towards it perceive the distance between their ideal self and avatar as smaller than the distance between their ideal and actual self. Yet, the question arises whether the experience of a temporary reduction of self-discrepancy through gaming is a factor in explaining the process of pathological gaming. Perhaps gamers use their avatars to make up for their perceived shortcomings and to experience a more idealized self. On the other hand, pathological gamers might be caught up in the game, advancing their character, without the player identifying with it and thus without the mechanism of self-discrepancy reduction playing a role. However, previous research by Smahel, Blinka and Ledabyl (2008) found a small correlation between ad hoc measures of identification and pathological gaming. Therefore, our third and final hypothesis states that (H3) in comparison to other gamers, gamers with high scores for both pathological gaming and identification perceive the distance between their ideal self and avatar as smaller than the distance between their ideal self and actual self. The present research draws on a sample of 304 WoW players, gathered through an online survey (Mage = 24.54, SD = 13.91, 84% male). The survey contained BFI personality measures of: (a) gamers' actual self, (b) gamers' ideal self and (c) main avatar (John & Srivastava, 2008). Furthermore, measures of avatar identification (Van Looy, Courtois, & De Vocht, 2010) and pathological gaming (Lemmens, et al., 2009) were included. These two measures' scores were split in half, using the median as a cut-off point to divide into high and low levels. Mixed model analysis of variances was used to test for the proposed hypotheses. First of all, the results indicate that players with a high avatar identification have a character that is closer to their ideal self for conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness and extraversion than those who score low for avatar identification. Except for openness, the ideal self - avatar discrepancies are consistently smaller than the ideal self - actual self discrepancies. As such, evidence is found for the first hypothesis. The second hypothesis, predicting a moderating effect of pathological gaming, is confirmed for neuroticism, openness and extraversion. Except for openness, it shows that for gamers with high pathological gaming scores demonstrate a larger distance between the self and actual self and a smaller distance between the avatar and the ideal self. Finally, the third hypothesis is confirmed for neuroticism and openness. It shows that gamers who combine a high score for pathological gaming with a high degree identification have much smaller discrepancies between their ideal self and avatar than between their ideal self and actual self. As such, these findings provide direct evidence for the self-discrepancy hypothesis proposed by Klimmt, Heffner and Vorderer. By implementing a direct measure of identification into Bessière, Kiesler and Seay's design, we were able to rule out the possibility that gamers do not meaningfully associate themselves with their avatar and just see it as more ideal because the game depicts a more ideal world or because creating a more ideal avatar is necessary for being successful in the game. As such, it is effectively shown that WoW players maintain a meaningful relationship with their avatar, which in turn provides further evidence for the self-discrepancy hypothesis in relation to the playing of MMORPGs. Finally, based on the idea that pathological gaming could be accompanied by a stronger desire to reduce self-discrepancy and thus alleviate psychological tension, we compared pathological gaming scores and discrepancies. Our findings indicate that WoW players with a tendency towards pathological gaming create and identify with avatars that are much more emotionally stable than their actual selves. In other words, they create an avatar that is more ideal on the dimension of neuroticism and then identify with it more strongly. References: Bessière, K., Seay, F., & Kiesler, S. (2007). The Ideal Elf: Identity Exploration in World of Warcraft. Cyberpsychology & Behavior, 10(4), 530-535. Ducheneaut, N., Yee, N., Nickell, E., & Moore, R. J. (2006). Building an MMO with Mass Appeal: A look at gameplay in World of Warcraft. Games and Culture, 1(4), 281-317. Hsu, S. H., Wen, M. H., & Wu, M. C. (2009). Exploring user experiences as predictors of MMORPG addiction. Computers & Education, 53(3), 990-999. John, O. P., & Srivastava, S. (2008). The Big Five Trait Taxonomy: History, Measurement, and Theoretical Perspectives. In J. O.P., R. W. Robins & L. A. Pervin (Eds.), Handbook of Personality (pp. 102-139). New York: Guilford Press. Klimmt, C., Hefner, D., & Vorderer, P. (2009). The Video Game Experience as "True" Identification: A Theory of Enjoyable Alternations of Players' Self-Perception. Communication Theory, 19(4). Lemmens, J. S., Valkenburg, P. M., & Peter, J. (2009). Development and Validation of a Game Addiction Scale for Adolescents. Media Psychology, 12(1), 77-95. Lo, S. K., Wang, C. C., & Fang, W. (2005). Physical Interpersonal Relationships and Social Anxiety among Online Game Players. Cyberpsychology & Behavior, 8(1), 15-20. Smahel, D., Blinka, L., & Ledabyl, O. (2008). Playing MMORPGs: Connections between Addiction and Identifying with a Character. Cyberpsychology & Behavior, 11(6), 715-718. Van Looy, J., Courtois, C., & De Vocht, M. (2010). Player Identification in Online Games: Validation of a Scale for Measuring Identification in MMORPGs. Paper presented at the Fun & Games, Leuven, Belgium

Risk perception towards emerging food safety risks on fresh produce: the impact of governmental trust on evoked fear

Introduction: Fresh produce is an important part of a healthy diet. However, due to recent disease outbreaks and rapid alerts attributed to fresh produce and derived food products, concerns emerged with regard to food safety. The EU Veg-i-Trade project conducts research on emerging food safety risks related to fresh vegetables and fruit due to climate change and global sourcing. Some of these risks cannot be prevented by the consumers (e.g., pesticide residues, mycotoxins,…) which stresses the importance of governmental trust. Purpose: Risk communication is necessary to prevent people starting a scare when a food-borne outbreak might occur. The Extended Parallel Processing Model (EPPM) of Witte (1992) is the most appropriate threat/risk related model to explain consumers’ reactions to health risk messages. Threat appeals trigger a process by which individuals appraise two perceptions: the perceived threat (susceptibility and severity) and the perceived (self- or response) efficacy of the hazard which may result in either message acceptance or avoidance. Method: In November 2010 a survey was conducted among 456 participates in Belgium. This survey measured general risk perception, problem awareness, evoked emotions, behavioral intentions and socio-demos. Results: Beside descriptive results related to socio-demographic differences, a significant interaction effect between susceptibility and governmental trust on the evoked level of fear (F (1, 452) = 3.854, p=0.05) appeared. Only when the governmental trust is low, susceptibility increases the level of fear. When trust is high, there appeared no effect of susceptibility of the threat. Significance: This study stresses the importance of governmental trust. In addition, these results show that evoked fear has a significant positive effect on risk perception. This risk perception has subsequently an impact on the intention to rinse fresh produce better (r= .388, p<.001), but not on the intention to eat it less. Based on these findings further research and risk communication strategies are suggested

A cross-cultural comparison of emotional and cognitive reactions toward new food safety risks as a consequence of climate change and globalization

Climate change and globalization increase the possible occurrence of new food safety risks on fresh produce. Hence, food risk communication needs to be carried out worldwide. This research investigates how consumers in different European countries respond to communication about these new food safety risks. Cross cultural differences between Serbia, Spain, Norway and Belgium, with regard to affective reactions, risk perception, trust, and behavioral intentions are analyzed. Both the emotional and cognitive reactions differ significantly between the countries, as well as the interplay between them, and the behavioral intentions. Hence, the communication strategy needs to be adapted on a national level