Treatment of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), sometimes called probabilistic safety analysis, quantifies the risk of undesired events in industrial facilities. However, one of the weaknesses that undermines the credibility and usefulness of this technique is the uncertainty in PRA results. Fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) are the most important PRA techniques for evaluating system reliabilities and likelihoods of accident scenarios. Uncertainties, as incompleteness and imprecision, are present in probabilities of undesired events and failure rate data. Furthermore, both FTA and ETA traditionally assume that events are independent, assumptions that are often unrealistic and introduce uncertainties in data and modeling when using FTA and ETA. This work explores uncertainty handling approaches for analyzing the fault trees and event trees (method of moments) as a way to overcome the challenges of PRA. Applications of the developed frameworks and approaches are explored in illustrative examples, where the probability distributions of the top event of fault trees are obtained through the propagation of uncertainties of the failure probabilities of basic events. The application of the method of moments to propagate uncertainty of log-normal distributions showed good agreement with results available in the literature using different methods

Elementos para uma abordagem sistemática da gestão de resíduos farmacológicos à luz da Política Nacional de Resíduos Sólidos (PNRS)

Public management of waste involves a latent confl ict between producers, distributors and consumers of goods and services. Th e relevant legislation in the case to Law 12,305, establishing the Brazilian Policy of Solid Waste (PNRS, acronym in portuguese), seeks to regulate such confl ict, requiring the need to consider chains of production, distribution and consumption as systems, taking into account the principles of reverse logistics and shared responsibility. The establishment of such principles generally involves coordination, procedures and costs that, when not properly observed, could compromise the eff ectiveness of the law. Th en the purpose of this paper is to refl ect on the public management of the Health-care Service Waste (RSS, acronym in portuguese) specifi cally of origin pharmacological, taking into account that such waste is not directly mentioned in Article 33 of Law 12.305/2010, although they have all the features for manufacturers, importers, distributors and marketers of drugs to structure and implement the system of reverse logistics. Th e authors begin with the representation of the functioning of the economic system to illustrate the need to internalize costs that were previously externalized, opening a discussion of the relationship between the productive sectors and waste generated, particularly at the tertiary sector of health services. So, we analyze public and private initiatives prior to Law 12,305 aimed at improving the management of solid waste (described in Topic 3) and discuss the relevant legislation and its more relevant instruments (Topic 4). In Topic 5, RSS are characterized and fi nally, Topic 6, we propose a systematic approach for the management of the RSS of origin pharmacological using the reverse logistics.A gestão pública de resíduos envolve um conflito latente entre produtores, distribuidores e consumidores de bens e serviços. A legislação pertinente, no caso a Lei no 12.305/2010, que institui a Política Nacional de Resíduos Sólidos - PNRS, visa também regular tal conflito, impondo a necessidade de se pensar cadeias de produção, distribuição e consumo como sistemas, tendo em conta os princípios da logística reversa e da responsabilidade compartilhada. A instituição de tais princípios geralmente implica coordenação, procedimentos e custos que, quando não devidamente observados, podem comprometer a eficácia da norma. Posto isso, o objetivo do trabalho é refletir sobre a gestão pública de Resíduos de Serviços de Saúde - RSS, de origem farmacológica, tendo em conta que tais resíduos não foram mencionados diretamente no artigo 33 da Lei nº 12.305/2010, embora possuam todas as características para que fabricantes, importadores, distribuidores e comerciantes de fármacos estruturem e implementem o sistema de logística reversa. Os autores partem da representação do funcionamento do sistema econômico para evidenciar a necessidade de se internalizar custos que antes eram externalizados, caminhando para uma discussão acerca da relação entre os setores produtivos e os resíduos gerados, em particular, pelo setor terciário prestador de serviços de saúde. Então, são analisadas iniciativas públicas e privadas anteriores à Lei nº 12.305/2010, que visavam melhorar o gerenciamento de resíduos sólidos (Tópico 3), e discute-se a legislação pertinente e seus principais instrumentos (Tópico 4). No Tópico 5, os RSS são caracterizados e, no Tópico 6, propõe-se uma abordagem sistemática para o gerenciamento dos RSS de origem farmacológica, utilizando a logística reversa

Application of FMEA and FTA techniques for assessing the occurrence of LOCA in a TRIGA MARK I Reactor

This study presents a framework merging failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) techniques to evaluate loss of coolant accident (LOCA) in the Brazilian Reactor TRIGA IPR-RI. At first, FMEA identified failure modes and prioritized risk management based on the risk priority number (RPN). Subsequently, FTA established logical relationships between these failure modes, revealing minimal cut sets. Results indicated that the path involving “loss of coolant from reactor tank” correlate to an externally caused leak, exhibiting a low probability and, consequently, a low RPN. On the other hand, the path involving “loss of coolant through primary circuit rupture without a pump shutdown” highlighted high RPN due to the lack of shutdown signals from the monitoring indicators. Finally, FTA unveiled that LOCA associates with a primary circuit rupture and the simultaneous failure of safety mechanisms, including ultimately human error

The common sense as a factor of Adehesion in to pentecostal Churches

O presente trabalho teve como objetivo descrever o fenômeno da adesão nas igrejas neopentecostais a partir da psicologia social, mais especificamente, da teoria das representações sociais. Desta maneira, nós procuramos identificar os elementos constitutivos das práticas religiosas decorrentes de um determinado grupo religioso neopentecostal correlacionando-os àss representações sociais. Destarte, este trabalho identificou e analisou o processo de utilização do senso comum religioso pela comunidade neopentecostal Igreja Mundial do Poder de Deus, como instrumento gerador de adesão, considerando-se os fatores emocionais pertinentes ao senso comum do grupo como força motivadora de adesão à igreja referida. Deste modo, chegamos a quatro temas básicos que nos possibilitaram identificar as representações sociais construídas na interatividade da igreja. Os temas foram: oferta de milagres e feitos extraordinários; a singularidade da Igreja Mundial do Poder de Deus; a batalha entre o bem e o mal; o líder espiritual e sua relação com os adeptos de sua comunidade. As representações sociais identificadas foram: representação social da igreja como lugar de bênçãos e feitos extraordinários; representação social dos demônios; representação social do divino; representação social do ungido de Deus. Tendo em vista as representações identificadas e analisadas, o que se conclui é que, na igreja pesquisada, o senso comum - enquanto significações circulantes entre os membros desta igreja - aliado a fatores emocionais que lhe são pertinentes, se constitui como fator causativo de adesão, na medida em que os sujeitos percebem que as soluções para suas demandas e males são ofertadas, pela igreja, de maneira identificada com os significados já presentes neste senso comum.The purpose of this thesis was to describe the phenomenon of adherence to the neo-pentecostal churches from the point of view of social psychology, and more specifically, of the theory of social representations. This way, our proposition was to identify the constitutive elements of a religious practice establishing a relationship with these social representations. Specifically, the research identified and analysed the process of utilization of the religious common sense by the neo-pentecostal commuty called Igreja Mundial do Poder de Deus [World Church of Gods Power], as a generative instrument of adherence, taking into consideration the emotional factors which are relevant to the common sense of the group, as the driving force motivating their attachment to this church. This way, we reach the four basic themes which allow us to identify the social representations built upon the interactivity of the church. The four themes are: miracle offerings and extraordinaty deeds; the singularity of the church; tha battle between Good and Evil; the spiritual leader and the people. The social representations identified were: the social representation of the church as a place for blessings and extraodinary deeds; the social representation of the demons; the social representation of the Divine and the social representation of the Gods Anointed. Having in mind the representations identified and analysed we came to the conclusion that, in the researched church, the common sense - while circulating significations among the church members - combined with emotional factors which are pertinent to them, constitutes the causative factor of the adherence, to the extent that the individuals realise that the solutions for their demands and misfortunes are offered by the church in an identified manner with the meaning already present in this common sense

Elementos para uma abordagem sistemática da gestão de resíduos farmacológicos à luz da política nacional de resíduos sólidos (PNRS) = A systematic approach for managing pharmacological residues according to the brazilian policy of solid waste

DOI: 10.5102/rbpp.v2i2.171

Development of a methodology for microstructural description

A systematic methodology for microstructural description can help the task of obtaining the processing x microstructure x properties x performance relationships. There are, however, some difficulties in performing this task, which are related mainly to the following three factors: the complexity of the interactions between microstructural features; difficulties in evaluating geometric parameters of microstructural features; and difficulties in relating these geometric parameters to process variables. To solve some of these problems, it is proposed a methodology that embodies the following features: takes into account the different possible types of approaches for the microstructural description problem; includes concepts and tools of Total Quality Management; is supported on techniques of system analysis; and makes use of computer modeling and simulation and statistical design of experiments tools. The methodology was applied on evaluating some topological parameters during sintering process and its results were compared with available experimental data

Dinâmica de distribuição de fontes de capitais científicos entre docentes / pesquisadores de um programa de pós- graduação Stricto- Sensu de uma universidade pública Dynamics of distribution of sources of scientific capital among teachers / researchers of a Master's and Doctorate's degree program of a public university

Situando- se no contexto das universidades e, mais especificamente, da pós- graduação, o presente estudo visa analisar, de forma exploratória, a dinâmica de distribuição de capitais científicos entre docentes de um programa de pós- graduação Stricto Sensu de uma universidade pública. De forma específica, como os docentes distribuem suas atividades entre aquelas que lhes permitem acumular capital científico puro (como as publicações e contribuições acadêmicas para o campo do conhecimento) e capital científico institucional (como a ocupação de cargos que lhes conferem o poder de decisão dentro do campo da ciência). Foi considerada a abordagem de Bourdieu (2003; 2004a; 2004b) relativamente ao campo científico, por esta permitir a apreensão dessa dinâmica de distribuição de capitais, que são tipos específicos de poder. A abordagem foi quantitativa e qualitativa, utilizando pesquisa documental nos currículos Lattes de vinte e três docentes participantes do referido programa, que se situa em uma cidade de Minas Gerais (Brasil), sendo da área de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas. Como principais resultados, a dinâmica demonstra (1) que os docentes ocupam, em sua maioria, posições medianas dentro da distribuição de capitais; (2) há a dificuldade de acumulação expressiva de ambos os tipos de capitais por parte de um pesquisador; (3) não houve uma polarização entre os docentes baseada em forte acumulação de um dos capitais, e fraca acumulação de outro; e (4) há maior facilidade de conversão de capital institucional em capital científico puro.<br>In the context of universities and more specifically, of graduate school, this study aims to analyze, in an exploratory way, the dynamics of scientific capital distribution among teachers of a Master's and Doctorate's degree program at a public university. Specifically, how teachers are distributed among those activities that allow them to accumulate pure scientific capital (such as publications and academic contributions to the field of knowledge) and institutional scientific capital (as occupying the positions that give them the power of decision within the field of science). Bourdieu's approach (2003, 2004a; 2004b) about the scientific field was considered, because it allows us to apprehend the dynamics of capital distribution, which represents specific types of power. The approach was quantitative and qualitative, using documentary research in the curriculum Lattes of twenty- three teachers participating of the program, which is located in a city in Minas Gerais (Brazil) and belongs to the area of Applied Social Sciences. As main results, the dynamics demonstrates (1) that mostly teachers occupy median positions within the distribution of capital, (2) it's difficult to accumulate both types of capital, (3) there isn't a polarization among teachers that have a strong accumulation of one kind of capital, and weak accumulation of the other capital, and (4) it's easier to convert institutional capital into pure scientific capital