Desigualdades regionais na mortalidade por câncer de colo de útero no Brasil: tendências e projeções até o ano 2030

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a tendência temporal da mortalidade por câncer de colo de útero no Brasil e calcular uma projeção até o ano de 2030. Foram analisados os óbitos ocorridos no Brasil de 1996 a 2010 (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade). Foram realizadas análises das tendências da mortalidade por meio da regressão Joinpoint, e para o cálculo das projeções foi utilizado o Nordpred. Para o Brasil, a tendência é de redução (APC = 1, 7% IC95%-2, 2; -1, 1 p < 0, 05), sendo significativa nas regiões centro oeste (APC = -1, 3% ao ano), sudeste (APC =-3, 3%) e sul (APC = -3, 9%). As regiões norte e nordeste apresntam tendência de estabilidade. Os estados do Acre (APC = -6, 5%) e Rio Grande do Sul (APC = -4, 1%) apresentaram as maiores tendências de redução. Na análise das projeções de mortalidade, haverá uma redução das taxas no Brasil a partir do primeiro período projetado, sendo mais marcante para a região sul. As taxas de mortalidade até o ano 2030 serão explicadas, em maior medida, pela redução dos risco para a doença. A mortalidade por câncer de colo de útero apresenta tendência de redução, todavia está desigualmente distribuída no Brasil, com as regiões norte e nordeste apresentando as maiores taxas. The scope of this article is to analyze the temporal trends of cervical cancer mortality in Brazil and calculate the projection of mortality through to the year 2030. Deaths that occurred within the 1996-2010 period were analyzed (Mortality Information System). Mortality trend analysis utilized the Joinpoint regression, while Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of projections. For Brazil, decreasing trends were identified (APC = 1.7% CI95%-2.2; -1.1 p < 0.05). The Midwest region presented a significant reduction trend (APC = -1.3% per year), along with the Southeast (APC = -3.3%) and South (APC = -3.9%) regions. The North and Northeast regions presented stable trends. The states of Acre (APC = -6.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (APC = -4.1%) presented the most pronounced reduction trends. Analysis of the mortality projections revealed a reduction in mortality rates, starting from the first projected period, with a considerable reduction for the South region. Mortality rates through to the year 2030 are explained, principally, by reductions in the riskof the disease. Cervical cancer mortality presents reducing trends, however these are unequally distributed throughout the country, where the North and Northeast regions present the highest mortality rates

Cancer mortality in Brazil: Temporal trends and predictions for the year 2030

Cancer is currently in the spotlight due to their heavy responsibility as main cause of death in both developed and developing countries. Analysis of the epidemiological situation is required as a support tool for the planning of public health measures for the most vulnerable groups. We analyzed cancer mortality trends in Brazil and geographic regions in the period 1996 to 2010 and calculate mortality predictions for the period 2011 to 2030. This is an epidemiological, demographic-based study that utilized information from the Mortality Information System on all deaths due to cancer in Brazil. Mortality trends were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression, and Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions. Stability was verified for the female (annual percentage change [APC] = 0.4%) and male (APC = 0.5%) sexes. The North and Northeast regions present significant increasing trends for mortality in both sexes. Until 2030, female mortality trends will not present considerable variations, but there will be a decrease in mortality trends for the male sex. There will be increases in mortality rates until 2030 for the North and Northeast regions, whereas reductions will be verified for the remaining geographic regions. This variation will be explained by the demographic structure of regions until 2030. There are pronounced regional and sex differences in cancer mortality in Brazil, and these discrepancies will continue to increase until the year 2030, when the Northeast region will present the highest cancer mortality rates in Brazil

Mortality trends and prediction of HPV-related cancers in Brazil

Estimation of the size of a cancer group, either through number of cases or extrapolation of past observed trends, is indispensable to the planning of effective assistance measures. The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality trends of human papillomavirus-related cancers in Brazil by sex, in the period 1996-2010, and make predictions until the year 2025. All deaths registered as being a result of cervical cancer (ICD-10 code: C53), as well as those caused by vulvar and vaginal (C51 and C52), anal (C21), penile (C60), and oropharyngeal (C02, C09, C10) cancers, were registered. Adjusted rate calculations for each year were used to study the trends through the regression program 'Joinpoint'. Predictions were made using the Nordpred program, utilizing the age-period-cohort model. When analyzing separately by location, it was observed that penile and anal cancers in men presented an increasing trend for the entire period with a statistically significant annual percentage change of 4% for anal cancer and 1.4% for penile cancer. Predictions indicate a reduction in the risk of death due to oropharyngeal cancer in men and cervical, vulvar, and vaginal cancers in women. It was observed that the increase in the number of deaths occurs mainly because of population changes (size and age structure). In terms of risk, an increase is predicted for anal and penile cancers in men and consequently an increase in mortality rates is observed for these types of cancers, unlike what is expected for human papillomavirus-related cancers in women. Copyright © Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

The Study Of Cardiovascular Risk In Adolescents - Erica: Rationale, Design And Sample Characteristics Of A National Survey Examining Cardiovascular Risk Factor Profile In Brazilian Adolescents

Background: The Study of Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescents (Portuguese acronym, "ERICA") is a multicenter, school-based country-wide cross-sectional study funded by the Brazilian Ministry of Health, which aims at estimating the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, including those included in the definition of the metabolic syndrome, in a random sample of adolescents aged 12 to 17 years in Brazilian cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants. Approximately 85,000 students were assessed in public and private schools. Brazil is a continental country with a heterogeneous population of 190 million living in its five main geographic regions (North, Northeast, Midwest, South and Southeast). ERICA is a pioneering study that will assess the prevalence rates of cardiovascular risk factors in Brazilian adolescents using a sample with national and regional representativeness. This paper describes the rationale, design and procedures of ERICA. Methods/Design: Participants answered a self-administered questionnaire using an electronic device, in order to obtain information on demographic and lifestyle characteristics, including physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, sleeping hours, common mental disorders and reproductive and oral health. Dietary intake was assessed using a 24-hour dietary recall. Anthropometric measures (weight, height and waist circumference) and blood pressure were also be measured. Blood was collected from a subsample of approximately 44,000 adolescents for measurements of fasting glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, glycated hemoglobin and fasting insulin. 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