Застосування зворотних залежностей у математичних моделях складних об’єктів та систем

Представлено метод побудови апроксимуючих поліноміальних функцій багатьох змінних, який засновано на використанні в поліномах від’ємних степенів та застосуванні до поліномів обмеження на сумарну величину ступеня добутку змінних. Запропоновано використання штрафної функції на кількість членів полінома. Експериментальним шляхом отримано оптимальну величину коефіцієнта запропонованої штрафної функції.Представлен метод построения аппроксимирующих полиномиальных функций многих переменных, основанный на использовании в полиномах отрицательных степеней и применении к полиномам ограничения на суммарную величину степени произведения переменных. Предложено использование штрафной функции на количество членов полинома. Экспериментальным путем получена оптимальная величина коэффициента предложенной штрафной функции.A method of constructing approximating polynomials functions of many variables, based on the use of the negative degrees in polynomials and the application of the limitation on the total value of the product variable to polynoms is presented. The usage of the penalty function for the number of polynomial members is suggested. The optimum value of the proposed penalty functions coefficient is experimentally obtained

Stability and comparison of complete blood count parameters between capillary and venous blood samples

Introduction: This study assessed the comparability of complete blood count (CBC) parameters between capillary and venous samples, and extended previous research by examining the influence of different storage temperatures on CBC stability up to 7 days after sample collection. Methods: Venous and capillary blood samples were collected from 93 adult patients. Hemoglobin (Hb), hematocrit (Ht), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), mean platelet volume (MPV), leukocytes, lymphocytes, basophils, eosinophils, erythrocytes, red cell distribution width (RDW), immature granulocytes (IG), immature reticulocyte fraction (IRF), monocytes, neutrophils, platelets, and reticulocytes were measured. Deming regression and mean relative differences between venous and capillary measurements were contrasted with desirable total allowable error (TEa). Stability was assessed in 20–27 venous blood samples stored at 4, 21–22, or 30°C, and analyzed at 0, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, 144, and 168 h. Mean relative change with respect to baseline measurements was compared to the desirable TEa to determine acceptable stability. Results: Deming regression demonstrated strong linear correlations and acceptable variation between venous and capillary measurements. Erythrocytes, Hb, Ht, MCH, MCV, RDW, reticulocytes, and platelets showed acceptable stability for at least 96 h at 4°C. Mean relative change exceeded desirable TEa after 24 h at 30°C for all parameters, except erythrocytes, Hb, leukocytes, and MCH. Conclusion: Clinical laboratory specialists and clinicians should be aware of potential differences between venous and capillary measurements, and the influence of storage conditions. Clinical validity of delayed CBC analysis depends on the clinical situation and required precision of the result

A diagnostic prediction model for separating juvenile idiopathic arthritis and chronic musculoskeletal pain syndrome

Objective: To develop and validate a diagnostic prediction model that can distinguish between juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and chronic musculoskeletal pain syndrome (CMPS) based on patient-reported outcomes. Study design: This retrospective cohort study evaluated whether the Juvenile Arthritis Multidimensional Assessment Report (JAMAR) performs well in distinguishing JIA from CMPS. We analyzed JAMARs completed by 287 patients at their first visit to the pediatric rheumatology department of Wilhelmina Children's Hospital in Utrecht, The Netherlands. Relevant JAMAR items for predicting a diagnosis of JIA were selected in a penalized multivariable model suitable for clinical application. The model was subsequently validated with new data from the same center. Results: A total of 196 JAMARs (97 JIA, 99 CMPS) were collected in the model development data, and 91 JAMARs (48 JIA, 43 CMPS) were collected in the validation data. Variables in the prediction model that were strongest associated with a diagnosis of JIA instead of CMPS were asymmetric pain/swelling in the shoulder (OR, 2.34), difficulty with self-care (OR, 2.41), skin rash (OR, 2.07), and asymmetric/pain swelling in the knee (OR, 2.29). Calibration and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.92) of the model in the validation data were good. Conclusions: Several items from the JAMAR questionnaire can potentially distinguish JIA from CMPS in patients with corresponding symptoms. We present an easy-to-use, adjusted, and validated model to separate these 2 diagnoses early at presentation based on patient-reported outcomes to facilitate proper referral and treatment

Serum biomarkers confirming stable remission in inflammatory bowel disease

Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) have a chronic-remittent course. Optimal management of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) relies on early intervention, treat-to-target strategies and a tight disease control. However, it is challenging to assess the risk of relapses in individual patients. We investigated blood-based biomarkers for the confirmation of disease remission in patients with IBD. We retrospectively analyzed samples of 40 IBD patients (30 UC, 10 CD) enrolled in a tight-control follow-up study. Half of the patients had a flare during follow up. Serum was analyzed for S100A12 as well as S100A8/A9 and for 50 further biomarkers in a bead-based multiplex assay. The concentrations of 9 cytokines/chemokines and S100A8/A9 significantly differed in IBD patients with unstable remission (before flares) when compared to IBD patients with stable remission. Although the number of patients was small, ROC curve analyses revealed a number of biomarkers (IL-1β, IL-1RA, IL-8, IL13, IL-15, IL-21, IL-25, IFN-β, CXCL9, CXCL10, CXCL11, Galectin-1, G-CSF and S100A8/A9) that were elevated in patients with later occurring relapses. While earlier studies on peripheral biomarkers in IBD are limited to only few analytes, our study using a broad screening approach identified serum biomarkers with the potential to indicate unstable disease control in IBD, which may help to steer individual therapies to maintain remission

Methotrexate therapy associated with a reduced rate of new-onset uveitis in patients with biological-naïve juvenile idiopathic arthritis

OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of methotrexate (MTX) therapy on new-onset uveitis in patients with biological-naïve juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). METHODS: In this matched case-control study, we compared MTX exposure between cases with JIA-associated chronic uveitis (JIA-U) and patients with JIA and without JIA-U at the time of matching (controls). Data were collected from electronic health records of the University Medical Centre Utrecht, the Netherlands. Cases with JIA-U were matched 1:1 to JIA control patients based on JIA diagnosis date, age at JIA diagnosis, JIA subtype, antinuclear antibodies status and disease duration. The effect of MTX on JIA-U onset was analysed using a multivariable time-varying Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Ninety-two patients with JIA were included and characteristics were similar between cases with JIA-U (n=46) and controls (n=46). Both ever-use of MTX and exposure years were lower in cases with JIA-U than in controls. Cases with JIA-U significantly more often discontinued MTX treatment (p=0.03) and out of those who did, 50% afterwards developed uveitis within 1 year. On adjusted analysis, MTX was associated with a significantly reduced new-onset uveitis rate (HR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.75). No different effect was observed between a low (<10 mg/m2/week) and standard MTX dose (≥10 mg/m2/week). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates an independent protective effect of MTX on new-onset uveitis in patients with biological-naïve JIA. Clinicians might consider early initiation of MTX in patients at high uveitis risk. We advocate more frequent ophthalmologic screening in the first 6-12 months after MTX discontinuation

Safety of Measles-Mumps-Rubella booster vaccination in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: A long-term follow-up study

OBJECTIVES: To study short and long-term disease activity and vaccine-related adverse events in a cohort of JIA patients who received the live attenuated measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) booster vaccine while being treated with immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory therapies. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed in the UMC Utrecht, clinical and therapeutic data were collected from electronic medical records for two visits before and two visits after the MMR booster vaccine of JIA patients. Drug therapy was collected and adverse events related to the vaccine were requested from the patients during clinical visits or by short phone interviews. Associations between MMR booster vaccination and the active joint count, physician global assessment of disease activity, patient-reported visual analogue scale (VAS) for well-being and clinical Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score (cJADAS) were analyzed using multivariable linear mixed effects analyses. RESULTS: A total of 186 JIA patients were included in the study. At the time of vaccination, 51% of the patients used csDMARD and 28% used bDMARD therapy. Overall, adjusted disease activity scores after MMR booster vaccination were not significantly different compared to pre-vaccination. Mild adverse events related to the MMR booster were reported for 7% of the patients. No serious adverse events were reported. CONCLUSION: MMR booster vaccination was safe and did not worsen disease activity during long-term follow-up in a large cohort of JIA patients being treated with both csDMARDs and biological DMARDs

Real-world comparison of the effects of etanercept and adalimumab on well-being in non-systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a propensity score matched cohort study

Background: Etanercept (ETN) and adalimumab (ADA) are considered equally efective biologicals in the treat‑ ment of arthritis in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) but no studies have compared their impact on patient-reported well-being. The objective of this study was to determine whether ETN and ADA have a diferential efect on patientreported well-being in non-systemic JIA using real-world data. Methods: Biological-naive patients without a history of uveitis were selected from the international Pharmachild registry. Patients starting ETN were matched to patients starting ADA based on propensity score and outcomes were collected at time of therapy initiation and 3–12 months afterwards. Primary outcome at follow-up was the improve‑ ment in Juvenile Arthritis Multidimensional Assessment Report (JAMAR) visual analogue scale (VAS) well-being score from baseline. Secondary outcomes at follow-up were decrease in active joint count, adverse events and uveitis events. Outcomes were analyzed using linear and logistic mixed efects models. Results: Out of 158 eligible patients, 45 ETN starters and 45 ADA starters could be propensity score matched result‑ ing in similar VAS well-being scores at baseline. At follow-up, the median improvement in VAS well-being was 2 (inter‑ quartile range (IQR): 0.0 – 4.0) and scores were signifcantly better (P=0.01) for ETN starters (median 0.0, IQR: 0.0 – 1.0) compared to ADA starters (median 1.0, IQR: 0.0 – 3.5). The estimated mean diference in VAS well-being improvement from baseline for ETN versus ADA was 0.89 (95% CI: -0.01 – 1.78; P=0.06). The estimated mean diference in active joint count decrease was -0.36 (95% CI: -1.02 – 0.30; P=0.28) and odds ratio for adverse events was 0.48 (95% CI: 0.16 –1.44; P=0.19). One uveitis event was observed in the ETN group. Conclusions: Both ETN and ADA improve well-being in non-systemic JIA. Our data might indicate a trend towards a slightly stronger efect for ETN, but larger studies are needed to confrm this given the lack of statistical signifcance

Adherence to low-dose methotrexate in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis using a sensitive methotrexate assay

BACKGROUND: Low-dose weekly methotrexate (MTX) is the mainstay of treatment in juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Unfortunately, a substantial part of patients has insufficient efficacy of MTX. A potential cause of this inadequate response is suboptimal drug adherence. The aim of this study was to assess MTX adherence in juvenile idiopathic arthritis patients by quantification of MTX concentrations in plasma. Secondly, the association between MTX concentrations and either self-reported adherence issues, or concomitant use of biologics was examined. METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational study using plasma samples from juvenile idiopathic arthritis patients. An ultrasensitive liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method was developed for quantification of MTX and its metabolite 7-hydroxy-MTX in plasma. The determined MTX plasma concentrations in juvenile idiopathic arthritis patients were compared with corresponding adherence limits, categorising them as either adherent or possibly non-adherent to MTX therapy. RESULTS: Plasma samples of 43 patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis were analysed. Adherence to MTX in this population was 88% shortly after initiation of MTX therapy and decreased to 77% after one year of treatment. Teenagers were more at risk for non-adherence (p = 0.002). We could not find an association between MTX adherence with either self-reported adherence issues, nor with the use of concomitant biological treatment (p = 1.00 and p = 0.27, respectively; Fisher's Exact). CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of MTX in plasma is a feasible and objective method to assess adherence in patients using low-dose weekly MTX. In clinical practice, the use of this method could be a helpful tool for physicians to refute or support suspicion of non-adherence to MTX therapy

Long-term immunoprotection after live attenuated measles-mumps-rubella booster vaccination in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

INTRODUCTION: Vaccines, especially live attenuated vaccines, in children with JIA pose a great challenge due to both potential lower immunogenicity and safety as a result of immunosuppressive treatment. For many years, in the Netherlands, JIA patients receive a measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) booster vaccine at the age of nine years as part of the national immunization program. OBJECTIVES: To study long-term humoral immunoprotection in a large cohort of JIA patients who received the MMR booster vaccine while being treated with immunomodulatory therapies at the Wilhelmina Children's Hospital in Utrecht, the Netherlands. METHODS: MMR-specific IgG antibody concentrations in stored serum samples of vaccinated JIA patients were determined with chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassays (CMIA). Samples were analyzed five years after MMR booster vaccination and at last available follow-up visit using both crude and adjusted analyses. Additional clinical data were collected from electronic medical records. RESULTS: In total, 236 samples from 182 patients were analyzed, including 67 samples that were available five years post-vaccination, and an additional 169 samples available from last visits with a median duration after vaccination of 6.9 years (IQR: 2.8-8.8). Twenty-eight patients were using biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDS) of whom 96% anti-TNF agents and 4% tocilizumab. Percentages of protective antibody levels against measles after five years were significantly lower for patients who used bDMARD therapy at vaccination compared to patients who did not: 60% versus 86% (P = 0.03). For mumps (80% versus 94%) and rubella (60% versus 83%) this difference did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.11 and P = 0.07, respectively). Antibody levels post-vaccination decreased over time, albeit not significantly different between bDMARD users and non-bDMARD users. CONCLUSION: The MMR booster vaccine demonstrated long-term immunogenicity in the majority of children with JIA from a large cohort, although lower percentages of protective measles antibody levels were observed in bDMARD users. Hence, it might be indicated to measure antibody levels at least five years after MMR booster vaccination in the latter group and advice an extra booster accordingly