Optimal curing policy for epidemic spreading over a community network with heterogeneous population

The design of an efficient curing policy, able to stem an epidemic process at an affordable cost, has to account for the structure of the population contact network supporting the contagious process. Thus, we tackle the problem of allocating recovery resources among the population, at the lowest cost possible to prevent the epidemic from persisting indefinitely in the network. Specifically, we analyze a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process spreading over a weighted graph, by means of a first-order mean-field approximation. First, we describe the influence of the contact network on the dynamics of the epidemics among a heterogeneous population, that is possibly divided into communities. For the case of a community network, our investigation relies on the graph-theoretical notion of equitable partition; we show that the epidemic threshold, a key measure of the network robustness against epidemic spreading, can be determined using a lower-dimensional dynamical system. Exploiting the computation of the epidemic threshold, we determine a cost-optimal curing policy by solving a convex minimization problem, which possesses a reduced dimension in the case of a community network. Lastly, we consider a two-level optimal curing problem, for which an algorithm is designed with a polynomial time complexity in the network size.Comment: to be published on Journal of Complex Network

Relaxing credit constraints in emerging economies: the impact of public loans on the performance of Brazilian manufacturers

Especially in developing countries credit constraints are often perceived as one of the most important market frictions constraining firm innovation and growth. Huge amounts of public money are being devoted to the removal of such constraints but their effectiveness is still subject to an intense policy debate. This paper contributes to this debate by analysing the effects of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) loans. It finds that, before receiving BNDES support, granted firms are indeed more credit constrained than comparable non-granted firms. It also finds that BNDES support allows granted firms to achieve the same level of performance as similar non-granted firms that are not credit constrained. However, it does not allow granted firms to outperform similar non-granted ones

Islanding, growth mode and ordering in Si heteroepitaxy on Ge(001) substrates structured by thermal annealing

Si/Ge heteroepitaxial dots under tensile strain are grown on nanostructured Ge substrates produced by high-temperature flash heating exploiting the spontaneous faceting of the Ge(001) surface close to the onset of surface melting. A very diverse growth mode is obtained depending on the specific atomic structure and step density of nearby surface domains with different vicinal crystallographic orientations. On highly-miscut areas of the Ge(001) substrate, the critical thickness for islanding is lowered to about 5 ML, in contrast to the 11 ML reported for the flat Ge(001) surface, while on unreconstructed (1x1) domains the growth is Volmer-Weber driven. An explanation is proposed considering the diverse relative contributions of step and surface energies on misoriented substrates. In addition, we show that the bottom-up pattern of the substrate naturally formed by thermal annealing determines a spatial correlation for the dot sites

Epidemic Outbreaks in Networks with Equitable or Almost-Equitable Partitions

We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals infect those belonging to the same community with higher probability than individuals in other communities. In community models the nodal infection probability is thus expected to depend mainly on the interaction of a few, large interconnected clusters. In this work, we describe the epidemic process as a continuous-time individual-based susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model using a first-order mean-field approximation. A key feature of our model is that the spectral radius of this smaller quotient graph (which only captures the macroscopic structure of the community network) is all we need to know in order to decide whether the overall healthy-state defines a globally asymptotically stable or an unstable equilibrium. Indeed, the spectral radius is related to the epidemic threshold of the system. Moreover we prove that, above the threshold, another steady-state exists that can be computed using a lower-dimensional dynamical system associated with the evolution of the process on the quotient graph. Our investigations are based on the graph-theoretical notion of equitable partition and of its recent and rather flexible generalization, that of almost equitable partition.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figure

Experimental Analysis of Partial Evaporation Micro-ORC for low -temperature Heat Recovery

In this paper, we present an experimental assessment of the performance of a partial evaporating organic Rankine cycle (PE-ORC) power system. The system converts low temperature heat into electrical energy, with a power size around 1 kW, thus suitable for micro generation in the residential sector. Although the test bench was designed for operating with superheated vapour at the expander inlet, it has demonstrated to be able to work with the expansion occurring entirely in two-phase condition. Since the direct measurement of the vapour quality is not possible using the sensors installed in the test rig, the state of the fluid in the two-phase condition is estimated by means of the thermal balance at the heat exchangers, so the thermodynamic cycle can be evaluated. Temperatures of the heat source in the range between 40 C and 75 C have been tested, and for each temperature value the vapour quality at the expander inlet has been varied by regulating the feed -pump rotating speed. Experimental data are provided regarding the performance of the overall cycle, of the heat exchangers, of the expander and of the feed -pump. It was observed that the effectiveness of the evaporator and the efficiency of the pump are improved with respect to the operation with superheated vapour at the expander inlet. However, the overall performance is lower, especially due to the high ratio of the pump consumption over the expander produced power, commonly called back work ratio (BWR). The latter, under some boundary conditions, has resulted higher than the unit, meaning that the system is not able to produce net electrical power. The aim of the paper is to identify the design characteristics required by a micro -ORC energy system in order to enhance its performance in the PE operating mode

City of dreams

Higher ability workers benefit more from bigger cities while housing costs there are higher for everyone, and yet there is little sorting on ability. A possible explanation is that young individuals have an imperfect assessment of their ability, and, when they learn about it, early decisions have had a lasting impact and reduce their incentives to move. We formalize this idea through an overlapping generations model of urban sorting by workers with heterogenous ability and self-confidence, with the latter defined as individuals’ assessment of their own ability. We then test the location patterns predicted by the model over the life cycle on panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. We find that the city-size choices of individuals at different stages vary with ability and self-confidence in a way that closely matches our theoretical predictions

City of dreams

Bigger cities offer more valuable experiences and opportunities in exchange for higher housing costs. While higher-ability workers benefit more from bigger cities, they are not more likely to move to one. Our model of urban sorting by workers with heterogeneous self-confidence and ability suggests flawed self-assessment is partly to blame. Analysis of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data shows that, consistent with our model, young workers with high self-confidence are more likely to locate in a big city initially. For more experienced workers, ability plays a stronger role in determining location choices, but the lasting impact of earlier choices dampens their incentives to move

Prognostic significance of serine-phosphorylated STAT3 expression in pT1-T2 oral tongue carcinoma

Objectives. Phosphorylated (activated) STAT3 (pSTAT3) is a regulator of numerous genes that play an essential part in the onset, development and progression of cancer; it is involved in cell proliferation and preventing apoptosis, and in invasion, angiogenesis, and the evasion of immune surveillance. This study aimed mainly to investigate the potential prognostic role of pSTAT3 expression in oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Methods. Phospho-ser727 STAT3 immunolabeling was correlated with prognostic parameters in 34 consecutive cases of pT1\u2013T2 tongue SCCs undergoing primary surgery. Computer-based image analysis was used for the immunohistochemical reactions analysis. Results. Statistical analysis showed a difference in disease-free survival (DFS) when patients were stratified by pN status (P=0.031). Most tumors had variable degrees (mean\ub1SD, 80.7%\ub123.8%) of intense nuclear immunoreaction to pSTAT3. Our findings rule out any significant association of serine-phosphorylated nuclear STAT3 expression with tumor stage, grade, lymph node metastasis, recurrence rate, or DFS. Conclusion. In spite of these results, it is worth further investigating the role of pSTAT3 (serine-and tyrosine-pSTAT3) in oral tongue SCC in larger series because preclinical models are increasingly showing that several anticancer strategies would benefit from STAT3 phosphorylation inhibition

Cardiorenal Involvement in Metabolic Syndrome Induced by Cola Drinking in Rats: Proinflammatory Cytokines and Impaired Antioxidative Protection

We report experimental evidence confirming renal histopathology, proinflammatory mediators, and oxidative metabolism induced by cola drinking. Male Wistar rats drank ad libitum regular cola (C, = 12) or tap water (W, = 12). Measures. Body weight, nutritional data, plasma glucose, cholesterol fractions, TG, urea, creatinine, coenzyme Q10, SBP, and echocardiograms (0 mo and 6 mo). At 6 months euthanasia was performed. Kidneys were processed for histopathology and immunohistochemistry (semiquantitative). Compared with W, C rats showed (I) overweight (+8%, < 0.05), hyperglycemia (+11%, < 0.05), hypertriglyceridemia (2-fold, < 0.001), higher AIP (2-fold, < 0.01), and lower Q10 level (−55%, < 0.05); (II) increased LV diastolic diameter (+9%, < 0.05) and volume (systolic +24%, < 0.05), posterior wall thinning (−8%, < 0.05), and larger cardiac output (+24%, < 0.05); (III) glomerulosclerosis (+21%, < 0.05), histopathology (+13%, < 0.05), higher tubular expression of IL-6 (7-fold, < 0.001), and TNF (4-fold, < 0.001). (IV) Correlations were found for LV dimensions with IL-6 (74%, < 0.001) and TNF (52%, < 0.001) and fully abolished after TG and Q10 control. Chronic cola drinking induced cardiac remodeling associated with increase in proinflammatory cytokines and renal damage. Hypertriglyceridemia and oxidative stress were key factors. Hypertriglyceridemic lipotoxicity in the context of defective antioxidant/anti-inflammatory protection due to low Q10 level might play a key role in cardiorenal disorder induced by chronic cola drinking in rats.Fil: Otero-Losada, Matilde Estela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas; ArgentinaFil: Gómez Llambí de Oromí, Hernán Jorge. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas; ArgentinaFil: Ottaviano, Graciela Mabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas; ArgentinaFil: Cao, Gabriel Fernando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas; ArgentinaFil: Muller, Maria Angelica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas; ArgentinaFil: Azzato, Francisco. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas; ArgentinaFil: Ambrosio, Giuseppe. Università di Perugia; ItaliaFil: Milei, Jose. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Investigaciones Cardiológicas; Argentin

Control strategy and performance of a small-size thermally integrated Carnot battery based on a Rankine cycle and combined with district heating

To encourage decarbonization and promote a widespread penetration of renewable energy sources in all energy sectors, the development of efficient energy storage systems is essential. Interesting grid-scale electricity storage technologies are the Carnot batteries, whose working principle is based on storing electricity in the form of thermal energy. The charging phase is performed through a heat pump cycle, and the discharging phase is conducted through a heat engine. Since both thermal and electric energy flows are involved, Carnot batteries can be adopted to provide more flexibility in heat and power energy systems. To this aim, efficient scheduling strategies are necessary to manage different energy flows. In this context, this work presents a detailed rule-based control strategy to schedule the synergetic work of a 10-kWe reversible heat pump/organic Rankine cycle Carnot battery integrated to a district heating substation and a photovoltaic power plant, to satisfy a local user's thermal and electric demand. The coupling of a Carnot battery with a district heating substation allows for shaving the thermal demand peaks through the thermal energy stored in the Carnot battery storage, allowing for a downsizing of the district heating substation, with a considerable reduction of the investment costs. Due to the multiplicity of the involved energy flows and the numerous modes of operation, a scheduling logic for the Carnot battery has been developed, to minimize the system operating costs, depending on the boundary conditions. To investigate the influence of the main system design parameters, a detailed and accurate model of the Carnot battery is adopted. Two variants of the reference system, with different heat pump cold source arrangements, are investigated. In the first case, the heat pump absorbs thermal energy from free waste heat. In the second case, the heat pump cold source is the return branch of the district heating substation. The simulation results show that, in the first case, the Carnot battery allows the downsizing of the district heating substation by 47 %, resulting in an annual gain of more than 5000 €. About 70 % of the economic benefit is due to the possibility of reducing the power size of the district heating substation, which can be from 300 to more than 500 kW. The payback period is estimated to be lower than 9 years, while in the second case, the Carnot battery is not able to provide a gain. Eventually, the influence of some parameters, such as the photovoltaic power plant surface, the storage volume, the electricity price profile and the reversible heat pump/organic Rankine cycle specific investment cost, on the techno-economic performance of the system, is investigated through a wide sensitivity analysis. According to the results, the photovoltaic panels surface does not significantly affect the economic gain, while the storage capacity strongly affects the system scheduling and the operating costs. Indeed, it is possible to identify that 13 m3 is the size of the storage volume that minimizes the payback period to 8.22 years, for the considered application. An increase in the electricity price without an increase in the thermal energy price leads to a decrease in economic gain because the benefit brought by the downsizing of district heating is less significant on the economic balance. The specific investment cost of the reversible heat pump/organic Rankine cycle does not influence the operating cost; thus, it does not change the Carnot battery management, nor the economic gain. The specific investment cost affects the payback period, which increases from 8.6 years for a specific cost of 2000 €/kWe to 15.7 years for a specific cost of 5000 €/kWe