New Firm Performance: Does the Age of Founders Affect Employment Creation?

The ageing population increasingly becomes a challenge for policy makers. Given the expected changes in the age decomposition of the workforce, it becomes more pressing to understand the nature of the relationship between age and entrepreneurship. More specifically: what are the consequences of an ageing (entrepreneurial) population on entrepreneurial performance?� A recent study by EIM investigates the effect of the age of the entrepreneur at start-up on the size of newly started firms. A distinction is made between the decision of entrepreneurs whether or not to become an employer, and the decision of employers to hire a certain number of employees. To examine to which extent age has a direct and/or indirect effect on these two decision, a sample of 849 new firms has been used that survived the first three years after start-up.� A first conclusion of the empirical analysis is that it is important to make the distinction between the two decisions: the decision of entrepreneurs whether or not to become an employer depends on other factors than the decision of employers regarding the number of employees. A second conclusion is that age has a negative relationship with the outcome of both decisions, but that these relationships are completely mediated by the mediating variables included in the study. Entrepreneurs who start at older age are less likely to work fulltime in their new venture, are less willing to take risks and have a lower perception of their entrepreneurial skills. Each of these factors has, in turn, a positive impact on the probability of employing personnel. For the number of employees a negative indirect effect of age exists, through the effect of age on the perception of entrepreneurial skills. �

Gender, risk aversion and remuneration policies of entrepreneurs

In theory, for many small and medium-sized enterprises the introduction of performance-related pay might be beneficial: if implemented properly, it could help enterprises in selecting, hiring and motivating the right employees for the right jobs. So far, however, performance-related pay in SMEs has received little academic attention. One of the few studies that examined determinants of performance-related pay amongst SMEs found support for the presence of gender effects; not only regarding the gender of the employees, but also regarding the gender of the entrepreneur. In this paper we have further investigated these� gender effects in remuneration policies. The central idea is that female and male entrepreneurs make different choices regarding their human resource management practices, including remuneration policies. Amongst others, these choices are related to the risk aversion of the entrepreneur as well as of the employees. Generally speaking, women are more risk averse than men. This may apply to entrepreneurs as well as to employees. This leads to various hypotheses that are tested empirically. Generally speaking, the results provide only limited support for our hypotheses. Our results are fairly consistent with the standard assumption that employees are risk averse (and female employees more than male employees) while employers (entrepreneurs) are not. At the same time, the support for our hypotheses is so limited that we have conducted a critical re-examination of our basic assumptions. This suggests that gender effects in remuneration policies may (also) be caused by gender differences in labour force attachment rather than in risk aversion.� �

Not one, but many: developing a multi-indication pricing model for medicines in Belgium

Back ground: Current pricing and reimbursement models that focus on one indication at a time are not suited to address the market access of multi-indication medicines. Therefore, the aim of this study is to co-create with Belgian stakeholders a multi-indication pricing model and procedural pathway, to identify conditions for implementation, and to illustrate the multi-indication pricing model with a case study.Methods: Different multi-indication pricing models were identified from the literature, case studies and pilots in other countries. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 representatives from the National Institute for Health and Disability Insurance, insurance funds, clinicians, patients, the policy cell of the Minister of Health, pharmaceutical industry and academia. These provided insight in the opinions of stakeholders about possible multi-indication pricing models and their feasibility in the Belgian context. Agreement on the preferred multi-indication pricing model and procedural pathway was reached in a multi-stakeholder round table.Results: The international review generated four main multi-indication pricing models that vary in terms of whether a uniform price or differential prices are applied, whether prices are adjusted for the volume and/or value of the medicine in each indication, and whether a proactive or retroactive dynamic pricing approach is used. However, Belgian stakeholders preferred a fifth model, which sets a single price as the volume- and value-weighted average price across all indications at launch. Over time, the price is adapted based on volume and value of the medicine in real-life practice for each indication. To implement this model, a legal framework, horizon scanning and early dialogue, data infrastructure, an evidence plan for the medicine, technical expertise and governance model need to be developed.Conclusion: Although the multi-indication pricing model preferred by Belgian stakeholders raises the administrative burden, it allows for the price of a medicine to vary during the lifecycle based on its initial and real-life performance in multiple indications

Near real-time CO₂ fluxes from CarbonTracker Europe for high resolution atmospheric modeling

We present the CarbonTracker Europe High-Resolution system that estimates carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange over Europe at high-resolution (0.1 x 0.2°) and in near real-time (about 2 months latency). It includes a dynamic fossil fuel emission model, which uses easily available statistics on economic activity, energy-use, and weather to generate fossil fuel emissions with dynamic time profiles at high spatial and temporal resolution (0.1 x 0.2°, hourly). Hourly net biosphere exchange (NEE) calculated by the Simple Biosphere model Version 4 (SiB4) is driven by meteorology from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset. This NEE is downscaled to 0.1 x 0.2° using the high-resolution Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover map, and combined with the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) fire emissions to create terrestrial carbon fluxes. An ocean flux extrapolation and downscaling based on wind speed and temperature for Jena CarboScope ocean CO2 fluxes is included in our product. Jointly, these flux estimates enable modeling of atmospheric CO2 mole fractions over Europe. We assess the ability of the CTE-HR CO2 fluxes (a) to reproduce observed anomalies in biospheric fluxes and atmospheric CO2 mole fractions during the 2018 drought, (b) to capture the reduction of fossil fuel emissions due to COVID-19 lockdowns, (c) to match mole fraction observations at Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) sites across Europe after atmospheric transport with the Transport Model, version 5 (TM5) and the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT), driven by ERA5, and (d) to capture the magnitude and variability of measured CO2 fluxes in the city centre of Amsterdam (The Netherlands). We show that CTE-HR fluxes reproduce large-scale flux anomalies reported in previous studies for both biospheric fluxes (drought of 2018) and fossil fuel emissions (COVID-19 pandemic in 2020). After transport with TM5, the CTE-HR fluxes have lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) relative to mole fraction observations than fluxes from a non-informed flux estimate, in which biosphere fluxes are scaled to match the global growth rate of CO2 (poor-person inversion). RSMEs are close to those of the reanalysis with the data assimilation system CarbonTracker Europe (CTE). This is encouraging given that CTE-HR fluxes did not profit from the weekly assimilation of CO2 observations as in CTE. We furthermore compare CO2 observations at the Dutch Lutjewad coastal tower with high-resolution STILT transport to show that the high-resolution fluxes manifest variability due to different sectors in summer and winter. Interestingly, in periods where synoptic scale transport variability dominates CO2 variations, the CTE-HR fluxes perform similar to low-resolution fluxes (5–10x coarsened). The remaining 10 % of simulated CO2 mole fraction differ by > 2ppm between the low-resolution and high-resolution flux representation, and are clearly associated with coherent structures ("plumes") originating from emission hotspots, such as power plants. We therefore note that the added resolution of our product will matter most for very specific locations and times when used for atmospheric CO2 modeling. Finally, in a densely-populated region like the Amsterdam city centre, our fluxes underestimate the magnitude of measured eddy-covariance fluxes, but capture their substantial diurnal variations in summer- and wintertime well. We conclude that our product is a promising tool to model the European carbon budget at a high-resolution in near real-time. The fluxes are freely available from the ICOS Carbon Portal (CC-BY-4.0) to be used for near real-time monitoring and modeling, for example as a-priori flux product in a CO2 data-assimilation system. The data is available at https://doi.org/10.18160/20Z1-AYJ2

Identifying key factors for the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer screening:A model-based analysis

Pancreatic cancer (PC) survival is poor, as detection usually occurs late, when treatment options are limited. Screening of high-risk individuals may enable early detection and a more favorable prognosis. Knowledge gaps prohibit establishing the effectiveness of screening. We developed a Microsimulation Screening Analysis model to analyze the impact of relevant uncertainties on the effect of PC screening in high-risk individuals. The model simulates two base cases: one in which lesions always progress to PC and one in which indolent and faster progressive lesions coexist. For each base case, the effect of annual and 5-yearly screening with endoscopic ultrasonography/magnetic resonance imaging was evaluated. The impact of variance in PC risk, screening test characteristics and surgery-related mortality was evaluated using sensitivity analyses. Screening resulted in a reduction of PC mortality by at least 16% in all simulated scenarios. This reduction depended strongly on the natural disease course (annual screening: −57% for “Progressive-only” vs −41% for “Indolent Included”). The number of screen and surveillance tests needed to prevent one cancer death was impacted most by PC risk. A 10% increase in test sensitivity reduced mortality by 1.9% at most. Test specificity is important for the number of surveillance tests. In conclusion, screening reduces PC mortality in all modeled scenarios. The natural disease course and PC risk strongly determines the effectiveness of screening. Test sensitivity seems of lesser influence than specificity. Future research should gain more insight in PC pathobiology to establish the true value of PC screening in high-risk individuals.</p

Temperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe

The year 2022 saw record breaking temperatures in Europe during both summer and fall. Similar to the recent 2018 drought, close to 30% (3.0 million km2) of the European continent was under severe summer drought. In 2022, the drought was located in central and southeastern Europe, contrasting the Northern-centered 2018 drought. We show, using multiple sets of observations, a reduction of net biospheric carbon uptake in summer (56-62 TgC) over the drought area. Specific sites in France even showed a widespread summertime carbon release by forests, additional to wildfires. Partial compensation (32%) for the decreased carbon uptake due to drought was offered by a warm autumn with prolonged biospheric carbon uptake. The severity of this second drought event in 5 years suggests drought-induced reduced carbon uptake to no longer be exceptional, and important to factor into Europe’s developing plans for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions that rely on carbon uptake by forests

Development and validation of real-time PCR screening methods for detection of cry1A.105 and cry2Ab2 genes in genetically modified organisms

Primers and probes were developed for the element-specific detection of cry1A.105 and cry2Ab2 genes, based on their DNA sequence as present in GM maize MON89034. Cry genes are present in many genetically modified (GM) plants and they are important targets for developing GMO element-specific detection methods. Element-specific methods can be of use to screen for the presence of GMOs in food and feed supply chains. Moreover, a combination of GMO elements may indicate the potential presence of unapproved GMOs (UGMs). Primer-probe combinations were evaluated in terms of specificity, efficiency and limit of detection. Except for specificity, the complete experiment was performed in 9 PCR runs, on 9 different days and by testing 8 DNA concentrations. The results showed a high specificity and efficiency for cry1A.105 and cry2Ab2 detection. The limit of detection was between 0.05 and 0.01 ng DNA per PCR reaction for both assays. These data confirm the applicability of these new primer-probe combinations for element detection that can contribute to the screening for GM and UGM crops in food and feed samples

Temperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe

The year 2022 saw record breaking temperatures in Europe during both summer and fall. Close to 30% of the European continent was under severe summer drought with a similarly large area affected (3.0 million km2) as during the recent 2018 drought, but now located in central and southeastern Europe. Multiple sets of observations suggest a reduction of net ecosystem carbon exchange in summer (57-62 TgC) over this area, and specific sites in France even showed a widespread summertime carbon release by forests, as well as wildfires. A warm fall with prolonged carbon uptake offered only partial compensation (up to 32%) for the carbon uptake lost due to drought. This severity of this second drought event in 5 years suggests these impacts to no longer be exceptional, and important to factor into Europe's developing plans for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions that rely on carbon sequestration by forests