Social Pressure or Rational Reactions to Incentives? A Historical Analysis of Reasons for Referee Bias in the Spanish Football

A relevant question in social science is whether cognitive bias can be instigated by social pressure or is it just a rational reaction to incentives in place. Sport, and association football in particular, offers settings in which to gain insights into this question. In this paper we estimate the determinants of the length of time between referee appointments in Spanish soccer as a function of referee decisions in favour of the home and away team in the most recent match by means of a deep-learning model. This approach allows us to capture all interactions among a high-dimensional set of variables without the necessity of specifying them beforehand. Furthermore, deep-learning models are nowadays the state of the art among the predicting models which are needed and here used for estimating effects of a cause. We do not find strong evidence of an incentive scheme that counteracts well-known home referee biases. Our results also suggest that referees are incentivised to deliver a moderate amount of surprise in the outcome of the game what is consistent with the objective function of consumers and tournament organisers

Minimum wage and employment: Escaping the parametric straitjacket

Parametric regression models are often not flexible enough to capture the true relationships as they tend to rely on arbitrary identification assumptions. Using the UK Labor Force Survey, we estimate the causal effect of national minimum wage (NMW) increases on the probability of job entry and job exit by means of a non-parametric Bayesian modelling approach known as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). The application of this methodology has the important advantage that it does not require ad-hoc assumptions about model fitting, number of covariates or how they interact. We find that the NMW exerts a positive and significant impact on both the probability of job entry and job exit. Although the magnitude of the effect on job entry is higher, the overall effect of NMW is ambiguous as there are many more employed workers. The causal effect of NMW is found to be higher for young workers and in periods of high unemployment. On the other hand, no significant interactions were found with gender and qualifications

The use of scenarios and models to evaluate the future of nature values and ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests

Science and society are increasingly interested in predicting the effects of global change and socio-economic development on natural systems, to ensure maintenance of both ecosystems and human well-being. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has identified the combination of ecological modelling and scenario forecasting as key to improving our understanding of those effects, by evaluating the relationships and feedbacks between direct and indirect drivers of change, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Using as case study the forests of the Mediterranean basin (complex socio-ecological systems of high social and conservation value), we reviewed the literature to assess (1) what are the modelling approaches most commonly used to predict the condition and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services under future scenarios of global change, (2) what are the drivers of change considered in future scenarios and at what scales, and (3) what are the nature and ecosystem service indicators most commonly evaluated. Our review shows that forecasting studies make relatively little use of modelling approaches accounting for actual ecological processes and feedbacks between different socio-ecological sectors; predictions are generally made on the basis of a single (mainly climate) or a few drivers of change. In general, there is a bias in the set of nature and ecosystem service indicators assessed. In particular, cultural services and human well-being are greatly underrepresented in the literature. We argue that these shortfalls hamper our capacity to make the best use of predictive tools to inform decision-making in the context of global change.This work was supported by the Spanish Government through the INMODES project (grant number CGL2017-89999-C2-2-R), the ERA-NET FORESTERRA project INFORMED (grant number 29183), and the project Boscos Sans per a una Societat Saludable funded by Obra Social la Caixa (https://obrasociallacaixa.org/). AMO and AA were supported by Spanish Government through the “Juan de la Cierva” fellowship program (IJCI-2016-30349 and IJCI-2016-30049, respectively). JVRD was supported by the Government of Asturias and the FP7-Marie Curie-COFUND program of the European Commission (Grant “Clarín” ACA17-02)

Within-season dismissal of football coaches: statistical analysis of causes and consequences

The paper examines the triggers for, and, consequences of, within-season dismissals of managers (head coaches) in the top division of the Spanish Football League during seasons 2002–2003 to 2004–2005. A major reason for directors deciding on dismissal is shown to have been concern that the club in question was in danger of demotion out of the division. This suggests that the clubs hoped to bring about short-term improvement in performance by changing manager. Employing an ordered probit model of match results, we demonstrate that an improvement in results tended to be achieved but only in home matches. The finding vindicates the decisions taken by club directors who dismissed their managers and implies that appeasing fans can have on-the-field benefits. It is consistent with the importance attributed to crowd support in the literature on home advantage in sports

A Realistic Model for Official Interest Rates

This paper extends the VAR methodology to examine the consequences of monetary policy decisions by considering two types of nonlinearities in the determination of official interest rates - 1) the asymmetry related to the different nature of the discrete and infrequent positive and negative interest rate movements determined by central bankers; and 2) the convexity in the transmission of policy shocks induced by the nonnegativity constraint in interest rates. For the UK, we find evidence of both types of asymmetries. Moreover, the operational independence granted to the Bank of England involved drastic changes on the interpretation of the reaction function of the monetary authority and the consequences of monetary shocks. In the US, responses to unexpected interest rate shocks are far more symmetric. Results highlight the importance of considering all types of asymmetries when studying monetary transmission.monetary shocks, impulse-response functions, monetary policy

Recomendaciones para mejorar la práctica odontológica

Introduction.- The stomatologic alterations have a high incidence according with World Health Organization. In Mexico about 90% of the population have caries. Objective.- To identify principal conflicts for odontologic attention observed in the complaints received in the CONAMED, and to generate recommendations directed to improve the quality of the odontology practice Methodology.- There was obtained information about the odontology complaints received in the CONAMED (January 2001 to October 2002). Once elaborated the recommendations were submitted to a Group of External Validation integrated by expert in the area. Results.� It were analyzed 177 complaints; 63.3 % corresponded to women and 36.7 % to men. The most affected age group patients was 25-44 years old with 35% of cases; 91 % of complaints was of private services. The most frequent causes of complaint were related to the treatment in 75.7 % of cases. The principal procedures were: 25.6 % of orthodontics y 24.4% prothesis. Principal modality of conclusion of the complaints was the conciliation (53.1 %). In a special sub-analysis of cases, malpractice was present in 43% of cases. Likewise the principal origin of identified problems were related with lack of communication or problems of communication between health personnel an their patients. Conclusions.- Factors identified in the complaints are related to the lack of communication among the professional of the mouth health and patient, false expectations of the patients and to the breach of obligations, The factors identified in the complaints, are related to lack of communication among health personnel and their patients, false expectations of the patients and with the breach of obligations, they were considered in recommendations.Introducción.- Las alteraciones estomatológicas tienen una alta incidencia de acuerdo con la Organización Mundial de la Salud, en México se estima que 90% de la población padece caries. Objetivo.- Identificar las principales conflictos por atención odontológica, manifestados en las quejas recibidas en la CONAMED, identificar sus principales características y emitir recomendaciones dirigidas a mejorar la calidad de la práctica odontológica. Metodología.- Se obtuvo la información sobre las quejas recibidas en la CONAMED del área de Odontología (enero de 2001 a octubre de 2002), una vez que se concluyó el análisis de las quejas, se elaboraron una serie de recomendaciones que fueron sometidas a un proceso de validación interna y posteriormente a una validación externa que fue realizada por expertos en el área. Resultados.- Se analizaron 177 quejas; 63.3% correspondieron a mujeres y 36.7% a hombres. El grupo de edad más afectado fue el de 25-44 años con 35% de los casos; 91% de quejas fueron de servicios privados. Los motivos de queja más frecuentes estaban relacionados con el tratamiento en 75.7% de los casos. Los principales procedimientos realizados fueron: 25.6% de ortodoncia, 24.4% prótesis y 13.3%. Las principal modalidad de conclusión de las quejas fue la conciliación (53.1%). En un subanálisis de (n=100) se identificó mala práctica en 43% de casos. Así mismo se identificaron problemas cuyo origen se encuentra en la falta de comunicación o problemas de comunicación en la relación del profesional de la salud bucal � paciente. Conclusiones.- Los factores identificados en las quejas, tales como la falta de comunicación entre el profesional de la salud bucal y el paciente, falsas expectativas de los pacientes y con el incumplimiento de obligaciones, fueron considerados en las Recomendaciones elaboradas

Usefulness of Dismissing and Changing the Coach in Professional Soccer

Whether a coach dismissal during the mid-season has an impact on the subsequent team performance has long been a subject of controversial scientific discussion. Here we find a clear-cut answer to this question by using a recently developed statistical framework for the team fitness and by analyzing the first two moments of the effect of a coach dismissal. We can show with an unprecedented small statistical error for the German soccer league that dismissing the coach within the season has basically no effect on the subsequent performance of a team. Changing the coach between two seasons has no effect either. Furthermore, an upper bound for the actual influence of the coach on the team fitness can be estimated. Beyond the immediate relevance of this result, this study may lead the way to analogous studies for exploring the effect of managerial changes, e.g., in economic terms