Predicting mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients: a retrospective cohort study

Acutely hospitalized older patients have an increased risk of mortality, but at the moment of presentation this risk is difficult to assess. Early identification of patients at high risk might increase the awareness of the physician, and enable tailored decision-making. Existing screening instruments mainly use either geriatric factors or severity of disease for prognostication. Predictive performance of these instruments is moderate, which hampers successive interventions. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among all patients aged 70 years and over who were acutely hospitalized in the Acute Medical Unit of the Leiden University Medical Center, the Netherlands in 2012. We developed a prediction model for 90-day mortality that combines vital signs and laboratory test results reflecting severity of disease with geriatric factors, represented by comorbidities and number of medications. Among 517 patients, 94 patients (18.2 %) died within 90 days after admission. Six predictors of mortality were included in a model for mortality: oxygen saturation, Charlson comorbidity index, thrombocytes, urea, C-reactive protein and non-fasting glucose. The prediction model performs satisfactorily with an 0.738 (0.667–0.798). Using this model, 53 % of the patients in the highest risk decile (N = 51) were deceased within 90 days. In conclusion, we are able to predict 90-day mortality in acutely hospitalized older patients using a model with directly available clinical data describing disease severity and geriatric factors. After further validation, such a model might be used in clinical decision making in older patients

Apolipoprotein E genotype, lifestyle and coronary artery disease: gene-environment interaction analyses in the UK Biobank population

Background and aims: The APOE epsilon 4 genotype has a higher risk for developing coronary artery disease (CAD), but there is preliminary evidence that antioxidative lifestyle factors interact with APOE genotype on CAD risk. Here, we assessed the effect modification of physical activity, oily fish and polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) intake with APOE genotype on risk of incident CAD. Methods: The present study comprised 345,659 white European participants from UK Biobank (mean age: 56.5 years, 45.7% men) without a history of CAD. Information regarding physical activity, oily fish intake and PUFA intake was collected through questionnaires, and information on incident CAD through linkage with hospital admission records. Analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age and sex. Results: Higher physical activity level and oily fish intake were both associated with a lower incidence of CAD. However, these associations were similar across the different APOE genotypes (p-values for interaction > 0.05). Most notable, higher PUFA intake was associated with a lower CAD risk in APOE epsilon 4 genotype carriers (hazard ratio: 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.63-0.92), and not in APOE epsilon 3/epsilon 3 genotype carriers (0.90; 0.79, 1.02), but without statistical evidence for effect modification (p-valueinteraction = 0.137). Conclusions: While higher physical activity and high fish and PUFA intake were associated with a lower risk of incident CAD, no evidence for interaction of these lifestyle factors with APOE genotype was observed in UK Biobank participants. Interventions intended to reduce cardiovascular risk might therefore be similarly effective across the APOE genotype carriers.Diabetes mellitus: pathophysiological changes and therap

LEARN 2 MOVE 0-2 years:effects of a new intervention program in infants at very high risk for cerebral palsy; a randomized controlled trial

Background: It is widely accepted that infants at risk for cerebral palsy need paediatric physiotherapy. However, there is little evidence for the efficacy of physiotherapeutic intervention. Recently, a new intervention program, COPCA (Coping with and Caring for infants with special needs - a family centered program), was developed. COPCA has educational and motor goals. A previous study indicated that the COPCA-approach is associated with better developmental outcomes for infants at high risk for developmental disorders. LEARN 2 MOVE 0-2 years evaluates the efficacy and the working mechanisms of the COPCA program in infants at very high risk for cerebral palsy in comparison to the efficacy of traditional infant physiotherapy in a randomized controlled trial. The objective is to evaluate the effects of both intervention programs on motor, cognitive and daily functioning of the child and the family and to get insight in the working elements of early intervention methods.Methods/design: Infants are included at the corrected age of 1 to 9 months and randomized into a group receiving COPCA and a group receiving traditional infant physiotherapy. Both interventions are given once a week during one year. Measurements are performed at baseline, during and after the intervention period and at the corrected age of 21 months. Primary outcome of the study is the Infant Motor Profile, a qualitative evaluation instrument of motor behaviour in infancy. Secondary measurements focus on activities and participation, body functions and structures, family functioning, quality of life and working mechanisms. To cope with the heterogeneity in physiotherapy, physiotherapeutic sessions are video-recorded three times (baseline, after 6 months and at the end of the intervention period). Physiotherapeutic actions will be quantified and related to outcome.Discussion: LEARN 2 MOVE 0-2 years evaluates and explores the effects of COPCA and TIP. Whatever the outcome of the project, it will improve our understanding of early intervention in children with cerebral palsy. Such knowledge is a prerequisite for tailor-made guidance of children with CP and their families.Trial registration: The trial is registered under NTR1428.</p

Common genetic variation in MC4R does not affect atherosclerotic plaque phenotypes and cardiovascular disease outcomes

We analyzed the effects of the common BMI-increasing melanocortin 4 receptor (MC4R) rs17782313-C allele with a minor allele frequency of 0.22-0.25 on (1) cardiovascular disease outcomes in two large population-based cohorts (Copenhagen City Heart Study and Copenhagen General Population Study, n = 106,018; and UK Biobank, n = 357,426) and additionally in an elderly population at risk for cardiovascular disease (n = 5241), and on (2) atherosclerotic plaque phenotypes in samples of patients who underwent endarterectomy (n = 1439). Using regression models, we additionally analyzed whether potential associations were modified by sex or explained by changes in body mass index. We confirmed the BMI-increasing effects of +0.22 kg/m(2) per additional copy of the C allele (p < 0.001). However, we found no evidence for an association of common MC4R genetic variation with coronary artery disease (HR 1.03; 95% CI 0.99, 1.07), ischemic vascular disease (HR 1.00; 95% CI 0.98, 1.03), myocardial infarction (HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.94, 1.08 and 1.02; 0.98, 1.07) or stroke (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.85, 1.01), nor with any atherosclerotic plaque phenotype. Thus, common MC4R genetic variation, despite increasing BMI, does not affect cardiovascular disease risk in the general population or in populations at risk for cardiovascular disease.Cardiolog

Lack of effect of lowering LDL cholesterol on cancer: meta-analysis of individual data from 175,000 people in 27 randomised trials of statin therapy

&lt;p&gt;Background: Statin therapy reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events, but uncertainty remains about potential effects on cancer. We sought to provide a detailed assessment of any effects on cancer of lowering LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with a statin using individual patient records from 175,000 patients in 27 large-scale statin trials.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods and Findings: Individual records of 134,537 participants in 22 randomised trials of statin versus control (median duration 4.8 years) and 39,612 participants in 5 trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (median duration 5.1 years) were obtained. Reducing LDL-C with a statin for about 5 years had no effect on newly diagnosed cancer or on death from such cancers in either the trials of statin versus control (cancer incidence: 3755 [1.4% per year [py]] versus 3738 [1.4% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96-1.05]; cancer mortality: 1365 [0.5% py] versus 1358 [0.5% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.08]) or in the trials of more versus less statin (cancer incidence: 1466 [1.6% py] vs 1472 [1.6% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.07]; cancer mortality: 447 [0.5% py] versus 481 [0.5% py], RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.82–1.06]). Moreover, there was no evidence of any effect of reducing LDL-C with statin therapy on cancer incidence or mortality at any of 23 individual categories of sites, with increasing years of treatment, for any individual statin, or in any given subgroup. In particular, among individuals with low baseline LDL-C (&#60;2 mmol/L), there was no evidence that further LDL-C reduction (from about 1.7 to 1.3 mmol/L) increased cancer risk (381 [1.6% py] versus 408 [1.7% py]; RR 0.92 [99% CI 0.76–1.10]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: In 27 randomised trials, a median of five years of statin therapy had no effect on the incidence of, or mortality from, any type of cancer (or the aggregate of all cancer).&lt;/p&gt

New application of intelligent agents in sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis identifies unexpected specific genetic background

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Few genetic factors predisposing to the sporadic form of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) have been identified, but the pathology itself seems to be a true multifactorial disease in which complex interactions between environmental and genetic susceptibility factors take place. The purpose of this study was to approach genetic data with an innovative statistical method such as artificial neural networks to identify a possible genetic background predisposing to the disease. A DNA multiarray panel was applied to genotype more than 60 polymorphisms within 35 genes selected from pathways of lipid and homocysteine metabolism, regulation of blood pressure, coagulation, inflammation, cellular adhesion and matrix integrity, in 54 sporadic ALS patients and 208 controls. Advanced intelligent systems based on novel coupling of artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms have been applied. The results obtained have been compared with those derived from the use of standard neural networks and classical statistical analysis</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Advanced intelligent systems based on novel coupling of artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms have been applied. The results obtained have been compared with those derived from the use of standard neural networks and classical statistical analysis. An unexpected discovery of a strong genetic background in sporadic ALS using a DNA multiarray panel and analytical processing of the data with advanced artificial neural networks was found. The predictive accuracy obtained with Linear Discriminant Analysis and Standard Artificial Neural Networks ranged from 70% to 79% (average 75.31%) and from 69.1 to 86.2% (average 76.6%) respectively. The corresponding value obtained with Advanced Intelligent Systems reached an average of 96.0% (range 94.4 to 97.6%). This latter approach allowed the identification of seven genetic variants essential to differentiate cases from controls: apolipoprotein E arg158cys; hepatic lipase -480 C/T; endothelial nitric oxide synthase 690 C/T and glu298asp; vitamin K-dependent coagulation factor seven arg353glu, glycoprotein Ia/IIa 873 G/A and E-selectin ser128arg.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study provides an alternative and reliable method to approach complex diseases. Indeed, the application of a novel artificial intelligence-based method offers a new insight into genetic markers of sporadic ALS pointing out the existence of a strong genetic background.</p

Design and rationale of a routine clinical care pathway and prospective cohort study in older patients needing intensive treatment

Background: Treatment decisions concerning older patients can be very challenging and individualised treatment plans are often required in this very heterogeneous group. In 2015 we have implemented a routine clinical care pathway for older patients in need of intensive treatment, including a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) that was used to support clinical decision making. An ongoing prospective cohort study, the Triaging Elderly Needing Treatment (TENT) study, has also been initiated in 2016 for participants in this clinical care pathway, to study associations between geriatric characteristics and outcomes of treatment that are relevant to older patients. The aim of this paper is to describe the implementation and rationale of the routine clinical care pathway and design of the TENT study.Methods: A routine clinical care pathway has been designed and implemented in multiple hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients aged >= 70 years who are candidates for intensive treatments, such as chemotherapy, (chemo-)radiation therapy or major surgery, undergo frailty screening based on the Geriatric 8 (G-8) questionnaire and the Six-Item Cognitive Impairment Test (6CIT). If screening reveals potential frailty, a CGA is performed. All patients are invited to participate in the TENT study. Clinical data and blood samples for biomarker studies are collected at baseline. During follow-up, information about treatment complications, hospitalisations, functional decline, quality of life and mortality is collected. The primary outcome is the composite endpoint of functional decline or mortality at 1 year.Discussion: Implementation of a routine clinical care pathway for older patients in need of intensive treatment provides the opportunity to study associations between determinants of frailty and outcomes of treatment. Results of the TENT study will support individualised treatment for future patients.Trial registration: The study is retrospectively registered at the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR), trial number NL81 07. Date of registration: 22-10-2019.Surgical oncolog