A Euro-Mediterranean Agricultural Trade Agreement: Benefits for the South and Costs for the EU

Free agricultural trade in the Mediterranean area is a delicate matter which brings both shores, as well as different EU countries face to face. Specially, in Spain and France the agricultural opening generates certain strain between the priorities of foreign policy and the demands of the affected sectors, as there is the generalised impression that such strain would generate important costs towards the agricultural sectors in both countries. The aim of this study is to quantify the magnitude of the effects brought about by a unilateral agricultural liberalisation developed by the EU regarding major agricultural exporters from the southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea – Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey. Those effects are analysed at two levels: the supposedly positive economic impact on the south Mediterranean shore and the competitive increase for the European producers. The results suggest that the size of such effects is important for the southern countries as much as for the northern ones, and show the need for reaching a Mediterranean agricultural agreement.Agricultural market, exchange liberalisation, Common Trade Policy, Agricultural transactions between Europe and PTM

El impacto de la liberalización comercial agrícola euro-mediterránea

El libre comercio agrícola en el Mediterráneo es un tema delicado que enfrenta tanto a ambas riberas como a los distintos países de la UE. En España, la apertura agrícola genera cierta tensión entre las prioridades de la política exterior y las demandas de los sectores afectados, pues existe la impresión generalizada de que la misma generaría costes importantes para la agricultura mediterránea española. El objetivo de este artículo es cuantificar la magnitud de los efectos de una liberalización agrícola unilateral por parte de la UE con los principales exportadores agrícolas de la ribera sur del Mediterráneo (Marruecos, Túnez, Egipto y Turquía) a dos niveles: el impacto económico supuestamente positivo en los países del sur del Mediterráneo y el incremento de la competencia para los productores europeos. Los resultados sugieren que la magnitud de los efectos es importante, tanto para los países del Mediterráneo sur como para la agricultura europea, y apuntan a la necesidad de alcanzar un pacto agrícola en el Mediterráneo

El impacto económico de la inmigración en España, 2000-2009: antes y después de la crisis

En un solo decenio de la historia reciente de la economía española concurren dos fenómenos extraordinarios: siete años de crecimiento récord y tres de crisis profunda. Durante este tiempo la integración masiva de trabajadores inmigrantes ha supuesto un impulso fundamental, tanto por su incorporación en el mercado laboral, que demandaba esta nueva fuerza de trabajo, como por su aportación al desarrollo del propio tejido económico, integrándose como oferentes y demandantes de bienes y servicios en nuestra economía. La medición de ambas circunstancias, en tiempos de auge y crisis, centra el objeto de este artículo.CIEES y London School of Economic

Drivers of electricity poverty in Spanish dwellings: A quantile regression approach

The main objective of this article is to explore the causes of household electricity poverty in Spain from an innovative perspective. Based on evidence of energy inequality across households with different income levels, a quantile regression approach was used to better capture the heterogeneity of determinants of energy poverty across different levels of electricity expenditure. The results illustrate some interesting and counter-intuitive findings about the relationship between household income and electricity poverty, and the technical efficiency of quantile regression compared to the imprecise results of a standard single coefficient/OLS approach

On the economic effects of a res local industry deployment in Morocco: A case of study defining scenarios from a survey to stakeholders

The aim of this article is to simulate the economic impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment of renewable energy sources investment in Morocco over the next 40 years. In this sense, several potential scenarios of energy component evolution have been used based on the results of a specific survey to sector stakeholders. We obtain accurate results, avoiding speculative/theoretical assumptions in terms of scenario design. As usual in the sector, a Dynamic Input-Output Model (DI-O) is used to estimate the direct and indirect effects of such a large investment and, avoiding the criticism of this type of model in the context of long-term simulations, the alternative of de Arce et al. (2012) is used. In this framework, substantial results derive from the three scenarios considered: the increase in Moroccan GDP as a result of this investment could be around 1.2-1.7 points and, on average, 42,000 new jobs could be created

An equilibrium model for Free Trade Area creation economic impacts estimation

In this paper, we propose a usual strategy in order to estimate the impact of a free trade area agreement between EU and Mediterranean Partner Countries (MPC's). In this frame, a dynamized Input-Output model is developed, obtaining the main economic impacts in each MPC country (employment, Value Added and GDP growth due to the new Free Trade Area).Free Trade Area Creation; Input-Output strategy; EU agricultural trade agreements; EU neighbourhood policy; free trade econometrics models

Analytical estimation of EU - Morocco potential free agricultural trade area

In this research an effort is made to point out some of the basic aspects on the discussion and extension of potential agreements in the free agricultural trade chapter from a quantitative optics. In order to support policy recommendations on how this liberalization could be made and which could be the effects for the Moroccan economy,a simulation is developed. The analysis allows, on the one hand, to determine which would be the increases in exports and imports of Morocco and, on the other hand, to incorporate Input-Output Tables and a dynamic model of structural change in the Moroccan economy, derivative of the technological development and the changes in the way of production of that country.Free Trade Agreement; EU neighbourhood policy; Agricultural liberalization; ACP; Input-Output simulation

Análisis de similitud relativa entre la estructura de exportación de los países mediterráneos y la Unión Europea (ISREE). El caso especial de España

Se presenta un índice de similitud de la estructura de exportaciones alternativo a los ya existentes en la literatura tradicional, que hemos denominado ISREE. Dicho índice se estima a partir de la matriz de disimilitudes habitualmente empleada en el análisis cluster. El procedimiento nos permite obtener una medición no confusa del riesgo relativo de un país o área frente a otro/s en función del grado de similitud de su estructura de exportación de un tipo de productos. En nuestro caso, el análisis se centra en la exportación de productos agrícolas, con un nivel de desagregación máximo, y para los países de la Unión Europea y el Mediterráneo. El principal resultado obtenido es la clasificación bilateral de los riesgos relativos entre países y áreas como punto a tener en cuenta en la negociación de una eventual liberalización del mercado agrícola.We present an export structure similarity index alternative to the ones already existing in the traditional literature, referred to as ESSI (ISREE). This index is estimated from the dissimilarity matrix usually used in cluster analysis. The procedure enables us to obtain a definite measurement of the relative risk of a country or area compared with another/others in accordance with the degree of similarity of their structure for the export of products of one type. In our case, the analysis is focused on the export of farm produce, with a maximum level of disaggregation and for European Union and Mediterranean countries. The main result obtained is the bilateral classification of the relative risks between countries and areas as a point to be taken into account in the negotiation of a possible future liberalisation of the agricultural market.Financiación prestada por FEMIS

Prioridades de los Países Socios Mediterráneos ante una eventual inclusión de la agricultura en el Area de Libre Comercio Euromediterránea: claves cuantitativas para el diseño de una 'hoja de ruta'

En el contexto del mandato comunitario de generar una hoja de ruta específica para cada uno de los Países Socios Mediterráneos (PSM), es necesario realizar un análisis cuantitativo de las ventajas y desventajas relativas de cada uno de estos países para asimilar un régimen comercial agrícola de libre cambio con la UE. En el artículo se definen una serie de ejes económicos, sociales, de infraestructuras, etcétera, a considerar en el estado de desarrollo de cada uno de los PSM. Posteriormente, se lleva a cabo un análisis factorial y se generan una serie de indicadores sintéticos que nos permiten graduar las áreas de atención preferente en cada país con objeto de definir hojas de ruta específicas por país

Have migrants bought a "round trip ticket"? Determinants in probability of immigrants' return in Spain

Understanding the extent to which immigration is a predominantly permanent or transitory phenomenon is essential for host countries insofar as it affects the strategic design of their admission, reception, and integration policies. Beyond the determination of the volume of returns, it is crucial to also determine which covariates connect better with a greater or lesser propensity of return. An adequate approach to the dynamics of the return requires considering this decision conditioned by the time elapsed since the arrival of the immigrant. From this perspective, the variable of interest would not be the intention of return, but the elapsed time between the arrival of the immigrant and the moment that return is considered as an option, as well as what are the factors affecting a greater or lesser duration of the stay. In this context, the article explores the relative importance of various personal and migration characteristics in the intention of return of immigrants conditional at the time of residence through the application of a Cox model of duration