9 research outputs found

    Competing risks modeling of length of hospital stay enhances risk-stratification of patient care: application to under-five children hospitalized in Malawi

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    Introduction Length of hospital stay (LOS), defined as the time from inpatient admission to discharge, death, referral, or abscondment, is one of the key indicators of quality in patient care. Reduced LOS lowers health care expenditure and minimizes the chance of in-hospital acquired infections. Conventional methods for estimating LOS such as the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and the Cox proportional hazards regression for time to discharge cannot account for competing risks such as death, referral, and abscondment. This study applied competing risk methods to investigate factors important for risk-stratifying patients based on LOS in order to enhance patient care. Methods This study analyzed data from ongoing safety surveillance of the malaria vaccine implementation program in Malawi's four district hospitals of Balaka, Machinga, Mchinji, and Ntchisi. Children aged 1–59 months who were hospitalized (spending at least one night in hospital) with a medical illness were consecutively enrolled between 1 November 2019 and 31 July 2021. Sub-distribution-hazard (SDH) ratios for the cumulative incidence of discharge were estimated using the Fine-Gray competing risk model. Results Among the 15,463 children hospitalized, 8,607 (55.7%) were male and 6,856 (44.3%) were female. The median age was 22 months [interquartile range (IQR): 12–33 months]. The cumulative incidence of discharge was 40% lower among HIV-positive children compared to HIV-negative (sub-distribution-hazard ratio [SDHR]: 0.60; [95% CI: 0.46–0.76]; P < 0.001); lower among children with severe and cerebral malaria [SDHR: 0.94; (95% CI: 0.86–0.97); P = 0.04], sepsis or septicemia [SDHR: 0.90; (95% CI: 0.82–0.98); P = 0.027], severe anemia related to malaria [SDHR: 0.54; (95% CI: 0.48–0.61); P < 0.001], and meningitis [SDHR: 0.18; (95% CI: 0.09–0.37); P < 0.001] when compared to non-severe malaria; and also 39% lower among malnourished children compared to those that were well-nourished [SDHR: 0.61; (95% CI: 0.55–0.68); P < 0.001]. Conclusions This study applied the Fine-Gray competing risk approach to more accurately model LOS as the time to discharge when there were significant rates of in-hospital mortality, referrals, and abscondment. Patient care can be enhanced by risk-stratifying by LOS based on children's age, HIV status, diagnosis, and nutritional status

    Rapid emergence of multidrug resistant, H58-lineage Salmonella typhi in Blantyre, Malawi.

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    INTRODUCTION: Between 1998 and 2010, S. Typhi was an uncommon cause of bloodstream infection (BSI) in Blantyre, Malawi and it was usually susceptible to first-line antimicrobial therapy. In 2011 an increase in a multidrug resistant (MDR) strain was detected through routine bacteriological surveillance conducted at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH). METHODS: Longitudinal trends in culture-confirmed Typhoid admissions at QECH were described between 1998-2014. A retrospective review of patient cases notes was conducted, focusing on clinical presentation, prevalence of HIV and case-fatality. Isolates of S. Typhi were sequenced and the phylogeny of Typhoid in Blantyre was reconstructed and placed in a global context. RESULTS: Between 1998-2010, there were a mean of 14 microbiological diagnoses of Typhoid/year at QECH, of which 6.8% were MDR. This increased to 67 in 2011 and 782 in 2014 at which time 97% were MDR. The disease predominantly affected children and young adults (median age 11 [IQR 6-21] in 2014). The prevalence of HIV in adult patients was 16.7% [8/48], similar to that of the general population (17.8%). Overall, the case fatality rate was 2.5% (3/94). Complications included anaemia, myocarditis, pneumonia and intestinal perforation. 112 isolates were sequenced and the phylogeny demonstrated the introduction and clonal expansion of the H58 lineage of S. Typhi. CONCLUSIONS: Since 2011, there has been a rapid increase in the incidence of multidrug resistant, H58-lineage Typhoid in Blantyre. This is one of a number of reports of the re-emergence of Typhoid in Southern and Eastern Africa. There is an urgent need to understand the reservoirs and transmission of disease and how to arrest this regional increase

    RTS,S vaccination is associated with reduced parasitemia and anemia among children diagnosed with malaria in the outpatient department of a district hospital in rural Malawi

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    The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine was recently approved by the World Health Organization, but real-world effectiveness is still being evaluated. We measured hemoglobin concentration and parasite density in vaccinated and unvaccinated children who had been diagnosed with malaria by rapid diagnostic test (mRDT) in the outpatient department of a rural hospital in Malawi. Considering all mRDT positive participants, the mean hemoglobin concentration among unvaccinated participants was 9.58 g/dL. There was improvement to 9.82 g/dL and 10.36 g/dL in the 1 or 2 dose group (p = 0.6) and the 3 or 4 dose group (p = 0.0007), respectively. Among a microscopy positive subset of participants, mean hemoglobin concentration of unvaccinated participants was 9.55 g/dL with improvement to 9.82 g/dL in the 1 or 2 dose group (p = 0.6) and 10.41 g/dL in the 3 or 4 dose group (p = 0.003). Mean parasite density also decreased from 115,154 parasites/μL in unvaccinated children to 87,754 parasites/μL in children who had received at least one dose of RTS,S (p = 0.04). In this study population, vaccination was associated with significant improvements in both hemoglobin concentration and parasite density in the setting of real-world administration of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine
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