Applied causal inference methods for sequential mediators

BACKGROUND: Mediation analysis aims at estimating to what extent the effect of an exposure on an outcome is explained by a set of mediators on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. The total effect of the exposure on the outcome can be decomposed into an indirect effect, i.e. the effect explained by the mediators jointly, and a direct effect, i.e. the effect unexplained by the mediators. However finer decompositions are possible in presence of independent or sequential mediators. METHODS: We review four statistical methods to analyse multiple sequential mediators, the inverse odds ratio weighting approach, the inverse probability weighting approach, the imputation approach and the extended imputation approach. These approaches are compared and implemented using a case-study with the aim to investigate the mediating role of adverse reproductive outcomes and infant respiratory infections in the effect of maternal pregnancy mental health on infant wheezing in the Ninfea birth cohort. RESULTS: Using the inverse odds ratio weighting approach, the direct effect of maternal depression or anxiety in pregnancy is equal to a 59% (95% CI: 27%,94%) increased prevalence of infant wheezing and the mediated effect through adverse reproductive outcomes is equal to a 3% (95% CI: -6%,12%) increased prevalence of infant wheezing. When including infant lower respiratory infections in the mediation pathway, the direct effect decreases to 57% (95% CI: 25%,92%) and the indirect effect increases to 5% (95% CI: -5%,15%). The estimates of the effects obtained using the weighting and the imputation approaches are similar. The extended imputation approach suggests that the small joint indirect effect through adverse reproductive outcomes and lower respiratory infections is due entirely to the contribution of infant lower respiratory infections, and not to an increased prevalence of adverse reproductive outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The four methods revealed similar results of small mediating role of adverse reproductive outcomes and early respiratory tract infections in the effect of maternal pregnancy mental health on infant wheezing. The choice of the method depends on what is the effect of main interest, the type of the variables involved in the analysis (binary, categorical, count or continuous) and the confidence in specifying the models for the exposure, the mediators and the outcome. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01764-w

Cord blood epigenome-wide meta-analysis in six European-based child cohorts identifies signatures linked to rapid weight growth

BACKGROUND: Rapid postnatal growth may result from exposure in utero or early life to adverse conditions and has been associated with diseases later in life and, in particular, with childhood obesity. DNA methylation, interfacing early-life exposures and subsequent diseases, is a possible mechanism underlying early-life programming. METHODS: Here, a meta-analysis of Illumina HumanMethylation 450K/EPIC-array associations of cord blood DNA methylation at single CpG sites and CpG genomic regions with rapid weight growth at 1 year of age (defined with reference to WHO growth charts) was conducted in six European-based child cohorts (ALSPAC, ENVIRONAGE, Generation XXI, INMA, Piccolipiù, and RHEA, N = 2003). The association of gestational age acceleration (calculated using the Bohlin epigenetic clock) with rapid weight growth was also explored via meta-analysis. Follow-up analyses of identified DNA methylation signals included prediction of rapid weight growth, mediation of the effect of conventional risk factors on rapid weight growth, integration with transcriptomics and metabolomics, association with overweight in childhood (between 4 and 8 years), and comparison with previous findings. RESULTS: Forty-seven CpGs were associated with rapid weight growth at suggestive p-value <1e-05 and, among them, three CpGs (cg14459032, cg25953130 annotated to ARID5B, and cg00049440 annotated to KLF9) passed the genome-wide significance level (p-value <1.25e-07). Sixteen differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified as associated with rapid weight growth at false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted/Siddak p-values < 0.01. Gestational age acceleration was associated with decreasing risk of rapid weight growth (p-value = 9.75e-04). Identified DNA methylation signals slightly increased the prediction of rapid weight growth in addition to conventional risk factors. Among the identified signals, three CpGs partially mediated the effect of gestational age on rapid weight growth. Both CpGs (N=3) and DMRs (N=3) were associated with differential expression of transcripts (N=10 and 7, respectively), including long non-coding RNAs. An AURKC DMR was associated with childhood overweight. We observed enrichment of CpGs previously reported associated with birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence of the association between cord blood DNA methylation and rapid weight growth and suggest links with prenatal exposures and association with childhood obesity providing opportunities for early prevention

Mode of Delivery and Asthma at School Age in 9 European Birth Cohorts

Evidence on the association between mode of delivery and asthma at school age is inconclusive. We assessed the associations between specific modes of delivery and asthma in children from 9 European birth cohorts that enrolled participants between 1996 and 2006. Cohort-specific crude and adjusted risk ratios for asthma at ages 5–9 years were calculated using Poisson regression models and pooled. A sensitivity analysis was carried out in children born at term to reduce confounding due to perinatal factors. The study included 67,613 participants. Cohortspecific rates of cesarean delivery varied from 9.4% to 37.5%. Cesarean delivery, as opposed to vaginal delivery, was associated with an increased risk of asthma (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) = 1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.46). Compared with spontaneous vaginal delivery, the adjusted risk ratio was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.75) for elective cesarean delivery, 1.07 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.22) for emergency cesarean delivery, and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.12) for operative vaginal delivery. In children born at term, the associations were strengthened only for elective cesarean delivery (aRR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.97). The large sample size allowed analysis of the associations between specific modes of delivery and asthma at school age. The increased risk of asthma associated with elective cesarean delivery, especially among children born at term, is relevant in counteracting the increasing use of this procedure, which is often performed without a clear medical indication.This work was supported by the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2009–2013) under a grant agreement (grant 241604) and by the University of Turin and the San Paolo Foundation (Turin, Italy). Data collection was funded and the study teams of all participating birth cohorts were supported by local and/or national research organizations