Empirical Evidence on the Use of Credit Scoring for Predicting Insurance Losses with Psycho-social and Biochemical Explanations

An important development in personal lines of insurance in the United States is the use of credit history data for insurance risk classification to predict losses. This research presents the results of collaboration with industry conducted by a university at the request of its state legislature. The purpose was to see the viability and validity of the use of credit scoring to predict insurance losses given its controversial nature and criticism as redundant of other predictive variables currently used. Working with industry and government, this study analyzed more than 175,000 policyholders’ information for the relationship between credit score and claims. Credit scores were significantly related to incurred losses, evidencing both statistical and practical significance. We investigate whether the revealed relationship between credit score and incurred losses was explainable by overlap with existing underwriting variables or whether the credit score adds new information about losses not contained in existing underwriting variables. The results show that credit scores contain significant information not already incorporated into other traditional rating variables (e.g., age, sex, driving history). We discuss how sensation seeking and self-control theory provide a partial explanation of why credit scoring works (the psycho-social perspective). This article also presents an overview of biological and chemical correlates of risk taking that helps explain why knowing risk-taking behavior in one realm (e.g., risky financial behavior and poor credit history) transits to predicting risk-taking behavior in other realms (e.g., automobile insurance incurred losses). Additional research is needed to advance new nontraditional loss prediction variables from social media consumer information to using information provided by technological advances. The evolving and dynamic nature of the insurance marketplace makes it imperative that professionals continue to evolve predictive variables and for academics to assist with understanding the whys of the relationships through theory development.IC2 Institut

Predicting emotions and meta-emotions at the movies

Audiences are attracted to dramas and horror movies even though negative and ambivalent emotions are likely to be experienced. Research into the seemingly paradoxical enjoyment of this kind of media entertainment has typically focused on gender- and genre-specific needs and viewing motivations. Extending this line of research, the authors focus the role of the need for affect as a more general, gender- and genre-independent predictor of individual differences in the experience of emotions and meta-emotions (i.e., evaluative thoughts and feelings about one’s emotions). The article discusses a field study of moviegoers who attended the regular screening of a drama or a horror film. Results support the assumption that individuals high in need for affect experience higher levels of negative and ambivalent emotions and evaluate their emotions more positively on the level of meta-emotions. Controlling for the Big Five personality factors does not alter these effects. The results are discussed within an extended meta-emotion framework

Interstellar MHD Turbulence and Star Formation

This chapter reviews the nature of turbulence in the Galactic interstellar medium (ISM) and its connections to the star formation (SF) process. The ISM is turbulent, magnetized, self-gravitating, and is subject to heating and cooling processes that control its thermodynamic behavior. The turbulence in the warm and hot ionized components of the ISM appears to be trans- or subsonic, and thus to behave nearly incompressibly. However, the neutral warm and cold components are highly compressible, as a consequence of both thermal instability in the atomic gas and of moderately-to-strongly supersonic motions in the roughly isothermal cold atomic and molecular components. Within this context, we discuss: i) the production and statistical distribution of turbulent density fluctuations in both isothermal and polytropic media; ii) the nature of the clumps produced by thermal instability, noting that, contrary to classical ideas, they in general accrete mass from their environment; iii) the density-magnetic field correlation (or lack thereof) in turbulent density fluctuations, as a consequence of the superposition of the different wave modes in the turbulent flow; iv) the evolution of the mass-to-magnetic flux ratio (MFR) in density fluctuations as they are built up by dynamic compressions; v) the formation of cold, dense clouds aided by thermal instability; vi) the expectation that star-forming molecular clouds are likely to be undergoing global gravitational contraction, rather than being near equilibrium, and vii) the regulation of the star formation rate (SFR) in such gravitationally contracting clouds by stellar feedback which, rather than keeping the clouds from collapsing, evaporates and diperses them while they collapse.Comment: 43 pages. Invited chapter for the book "Magnetic Fields in Diffuse Media", edited by Elisabete de Gouveia dal Pino and Alex Lazarian. Revised as per referee's recommendation

How to move ionized gas: an introduction to the dynamics of HII regions

This review covers the dynamic processes that are important in the evolution and structure of galactic HII regions, concentrating on an elementary presentation of the physical concepts and recent numerical simulations of HII region evolution in a non-uniform medium. The contents are as follows: (1) The equations (Euler equations; Radiative transfer; Rate equations; How to avoid the dynamics; How to avoid the atomic physics). (2) Physical concepts (Static photoionization equilibrium; Ionization front propagation; Structure of a D-type front; Photoablation flows; Other ingredients - Stellar winds, Radiation pressure, Magnetic fields, Instabilities). (3) HII region evolution (Early phases: hypercompact and ultracompact regions; Later phases: compact and extended regions; Clumps and turbulence).Comment: To be published as a chapter in 'Diffuse Matter from Star Forming Regions to Active Galaxies' - A volume Honouring John Dyson. Eds. T. W. Harquist, J. M. Pittard and S. A. E. G. Falle. 25 pages, 7 figures. Some figures degraded to meet size restriction. Full-resolution version available at http://www.ifront.org/wiki/Dyson_Festschrift_Chapte

The Physics of Star Cluster Formation and Evolution

© 2020 Springer-Verlag. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-020-00689-4.Star clusters form in dense, hierarchically collapsing gas clouds. Bulk kinetic energy is transformed to turbulence with stars forming from cores fed by filaments. In the most compact regions, stellar feedback is least effective in removing the gas and stars may form very efficiently. These are also the regions where, in high-mass clusters, ejecta from some kind of high-mass stars are effectively captured during the formation phase of some of the low mass stars and effectively channeled into the latter to form multiple populations. Star formation epochs in star clusters are generally set by gas flows that determine the abundance of gas in the cluster. We argue that there is likely only one star formation epoch after which clusters remain essentially clear of gas by cluster winds. Collisional dynamics is important in this phase leading to core collapse, expansion and eventual dispersion of every cluster. We review recent developments in the field with a focus on theoretical work.Peer reviewe