Основные положения «белой книги» 2013 года и участие Французской Республики в конфликтах и кризисах

In the article the authors analyze the change of French principles of participation in international conflicts after the new edition of White Book in 2013. Each White Book presents the aims and perspectives of the French defense policy development. The first one was published in 1972 during the Cold War and the next one in 1994 after the collapse of the Soviet Union when the major role in conflicts resolution was taken by UNO. The 21st century brings new challenges and threats as well as new methods of conflicts resolution taking into account their new nature and development. In the article we analyze new principles of conflicts resolution elaborated by Francois Holland, the book was published in 2013. The core principles of the previous Book (elaborated by N. Sarkozy) included the activation of the French role on the world arena and reduction of the military forces. But now taking into account that the majority of crises are international and involve different parties and countries, France focuses on collaboration with the other countries especially with the members of NATO. As an example the authors investigate policy of the French government in the operations in Mali and Libya where France plays the leading role. Both conflicts are not resolved and are going to become permanent. So, as it takes more forces and expenses, the French government tries to bring in more countries-allies to settle the issue

Конфликты в тропической Африке: типология, причины, последствия

Since 1990s, the number of states conflicts decreased and they started saying that the classical wars disappeared but at the same time, the number of internal conflicts increased dramatically. The end of colonial regime in Africa didn't bring peace to the region - the new wave of internal conflicts and civil wars overwhelmed the region. In the given article the authors analyze political and complicated socio-economic situation in the Tropical Africa, describe the conflicts in this zone, their typology, results and factors. The authors attempt to analyze internal and external causes of conflicts in the studied region, taking into account all elements of each conflict and their interdependence. The subject of the article is the conflict as the social element presenting the important part of international reality. It is noted that the crisis in the region influences every part of economic, social, and political spheres, so the solution is not possible without structural changes. In this connection, conflicts are the logical results of regional crisis as well as uncertain activity of international society. This situation provokes the large wave of migrants from the region and inside it. The countries the Tropical Africa can't guarantee any suitable level of life for the citizens, and the situation can’t be resolved without active role of international community

Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in‐storm and larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes in large‐scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): Facing the Challenges and Pathways of Global Change in the Twenty-first Century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies codesigned with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Multidecadal trends in the duration of wet spells and associated intensity of precipitation as revealed by a very dense observational German network

Precipitation durations and intensities over the period 1950–2008 are analysed using daily rain gauge data from the Deutsche Wetterdienst raingauge network—one of the densest and most properly maintained precipitation observational networks in Europe. Truncated geometric distribution of the family of discrete distributions was applied for quantifying probability distribution of the durations of wet spells. Further intensities of wet spells of different durations were analysed along with wet spell lengths. During the cold season (October–March) wet periods over the whole of Germany demonstrate a robust pattern of lengthening by about 2–3% for the mean durations of wet spells and up to 6% for extremely long wet periods. This tendency is clearly associated with growing (up to 10% per decade in Eastern Germany) intensity of precipitation during long wet periods (more than 5 days) and the weakening of precipitation events associated with short and moderately long wet periods with both signals being statistically significant. Trends are superimposed with interdecadal variability, which is the strongest in Northern and Central Germany. In the warm season (April–September) there is no robust pan-German trend pattern in the wet spell durations and associated precipitation intensities. Strong structural changes in winter precipitation over Germany potentially imply growing rates of winter ground water recharge over Germany and increasing probability of winter flash and river flooding

Warm Arctic−cold Siberia: comparing the recent and the early 20th-century Arctic warmings

International audienceThe Warm Arctic-cold Siberia surface temperature pattern during recent boreal winter is suggested to be triggered by the ongoing decrease of Arctic autumn sea ice concentration and has been observed together with an increase in mid-latitude extreme events and a meridionalization of tropospheric circulation. However, the exact mechanism behind this dipole temperature pattern is still under debate, since model experiments with reduced sea ice show conflicting results. We use the early twentieth-century Arctic warming (ETCAW) as a case study to investigate the link between September sea ice in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) and the Siberian temperature evolution. Analyzing a variety of long-term climate reanalyses, we find that the overall winter temperature and heat flux trend occurs with the reduction of September BKS sea ice. Tropospheric conditions show a strengthened atmospheric blocking over the BKS, strengthening the advection of cold air from the Arctic to central Siberia on its eastern flank, together with a reduction of warm air advection by the westerlies. This setup is valid for both the ETCAW and the current Arctic warming period

French Participation in International Conflicts and Crises: Main Statements of the White Book 2013

In the article the authors analyze the change of French principles of participation in international conflicts after the new edition of White Book in 2013. Each White Book presents the aims and perspectives of the French defense policy development. The first one was published in 1972 during the Cold War and the next one in 1994 after the collapse of the Soviet Union when the major role in conflicts resolution was taken by UNO. The 21st century brings new challenges and threats as well as new methods of conflicts resolution taking into account their new nature and development. In the article we analyze new principles of conflicts resolution elaborated by Francois Holland, the book was published in 2013. The core principles of the previous Book (elaborated by N. Sarkozy) included the activation of the French role on the world arena and reduction of the military forces. But now taking into account that the majority of crises are international and involve different parties and countries, France focuses on collaboration with the other countries especially with the members of NATO. As an example the authors investigate policy of the French government in the operations in Mali and Libya where France plays the leading role. Both conflicts are not resolved and are going to become permanent. So, as it takes more forces and expenses, the French government tries to bring in more countries-allies to settle the issue

Atmospheric Moisture Transport to the Arctic: Assessment of Reanalyses and Analysis of Transport Components

International audienceThe atmospheric water cycle of the Arctic is evaluated via seven global reanalyses and in radiosonde observations covering the 1979–2013 period. In the regional moisture budget, evaporation and precipitation are the least consistent terms among different datasets. Despite the assimilation of radiosoundings, the reanalyses present a tendency to overestimate the moisture transport. Aside from this overestimation, the reanalyses exhibit a remarkable agreement with the radiosondes in terms of spatial and temporal patterns. The northern North Atlantic, subpolar North Pacific, and Labrador Sea stand out as the main gateways for moisture to the Arctic in all reanalyses. Because these regions correspond to the end of the storm tracks, the link between moisture transports and extratropical cyclones is further investigated by decomposing the moisture fluxes in the mean flow and transient eddy parts. In all reanalyses, the former term tends to cancel out when averaged over a latitude circle, leaving the latter to provide the bulk of the midlatitude moisture imports (89%–94% at 70°N). Although the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the world, the impact of these changes on its water cycle remains ambiguous. In most datasets, evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water increase in line with what is expected from a warming signal. At the same time, the moisture transports have decreased in all the reanalyses but not in the radiosonde observations, though none of these trends is statistically significant. The fluxes do not scale with the Clausius–Clapeyron relation because the increasing humidity is not correlated with the meridional wind, particularly near the surface

Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

Long-term changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia (NE) over the last five decades are estimated. Different types of precipitation are separated according to their genesis using routine meteorological observations of precipitation, weather conditions, and morphological cloud types for the period 1966–2016. From an initial 538 stations, the main analysis is performed for 326 stations that have no gaps and meet criteria regarding the artificial discontinuity absence in the data. A moderate increase in total precipitation over the analyzed period is accompanied by a relatively strong growth of convective precipitation and a concurrent decrease in stratiform precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation totals, precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation sums depict major changes in summer, while the relative contribution of the two precipitation types to the total precipitation (including the contribution of heavy rain events) show the strongest trends in transition seasons. The contribution of heavy convective showers to the total precipitation increases with the statistically significant trend of 1%–2% per decade in vast NE regions, reaching 5% per decade at a number of stations. The largest increase is found over the southern Far East region, mostly because of positive changes in convective precipitation intensity with a linear trend of more than 1 mm/day/decade, implying a 13.8% increase per 1 °C warming. In general, stratiform precipitation decreases over the majority of NE regions in all seasons except for winter. This decrease happens at slower rates in comparison to the convective precipitation changes. The overall changes in the character of precipitation over the majority of NE regions are characterized by a redistribution of precipitation types toward more heavy showers