Indikatoren aus regionalen Klimaprojektionen für eine klimaresiliente Landwirtschaft

Die Landwirtschaft ist ein Sektor mit unmittelbarer Abhängigkeit von Wetter und Klima, und daher in besonderem Maße von Extremwetterereignissen und Klimaveränderungen betroffen. Die seit 2018 anhaltende Dürrephase in weiten Teilen Deutschlands hat uns dies besonders vor Augen geführt.Viele Akteure in der Landwirtschaft reagieren nur kurzfristig auf stattfindende Schwankungen der Witterungsbedingungen. Welche langfristigen Anpassungsmaßnahmen nötig sind, bleibt oft unklar, da sowohl Klimaprojektionen als auch deren Bedeutung und Relevanz in der Praxis mit Unsicherheiten behaftet sind.Im Projekt ADAPTER erkunden wir diese Unsicherheiten, um Klimaprojektionen passgerecht in praxisrelevante Informationen zu überführen. Den inhaltlichen Fokus erarbeiten wir dabei im Dialog mit Praxispartnern, die in Verwaltungsbehörden, Landwirtschaftskammern, im Ackerbau und in Pflanzenzuchtunternehmen aktiv sind.In unserem Beitrag gehen wir sowohl auf die Methodik als auch die Ergebnisse dieser Vorgehensweise ein. Insbesondere identifizieren und analysieren wir praxisrelevante Klima-Indizes, die auf bestimmte Entwicklungsstadien von Feldfrüchten und auf ausgewählte Klima-Boden-Räume in Deutschland zugeschnitten sind. Die Indizes erfassen z.B. das Auftreten extremer, einander gegenseitig beeinflussender Bedingungen in mehreren Variablen gleichzeitig (sogenannter "compound events"), die Statistik der Dauer von Extremereignissen und die Stärke der täglichen Variabilität.Unsere Datenanalyse umfasst dabei Beobachtungen, Reanalysen und 85 regionale Klimasimulationen des EURO-CORDEX-Ensembles. Beispielsweise finden wir Tendenzen für eine zunehmende Temperaturvariabilität, ein zunehmendes Risiko von kombiniertem Trocken- und Hitzestress, und Änderungen der potentiellen Befahrbarkeit der Böden. Um zu beurteilen, wie diese Änderungen den Ertrag beeinträchtigen können, verschneiden wir die projizierten Klimaänderungen mit physiologischen Schwellwerten der heute angebauten Feldfrüchte.Auf Grundlage unserer Auswertung erörtern wir abschließend, wie sich die Häufigkeit und Dauer von Trockenperioden im Klimawandel verändert, und inwiefern diese Änderungen aus der Klimavariabilität heraustreten

Tailoring climate projections to the needs of agricultural stakeholders - insights from ADAPTER

Agriculture is among the sectors that are most vulnerable to extreme weather conditions and climate change. In Germany, the subsequent dry and hot summers 2018, 2019, and 2020 havebrought this into the focus of public attention. Agricultural actors like farmers, advisors or companies are concerned with such interannual variability and extremes. Yet, it often remainsunclear what long-term adaptation options are most suitable in the context of climate change, mainly because climate projections have uncertainties and are usually not tailored to meetrequirements, measures and scales of the individual practitioners. In the ADAPTER project, we explore regional and local change on the weather- and climate-related time scales and togetherwith stakeholders (administration, plant breeders, educators, agricultural advisors), we co-design tailored climate change indices and usable products.In this contribution, we first demonstrate which aspects of climate change are most important for our stakeholders regarding the breeding of new crops and identifying ideal testing areas andfuture regions of cultivation. Second, we present a comprehensive data analysis based on weather observations, model analyses of past weather, and 85 regional climate simulations, andshow what changes can be expected in the next decades. We identify and analyse practically relevant climate indices, that are tailored to specific soil-climate zones in Germany and to critical stages of plant development during the year. The indices capture aspects of climate change like increasing temperature variability, the increasing occurrence of combined heat and drought, and changes in the potential accessibility of soils.Based on the results, we discuss to what extent recent developments are in line with our expectations of future climate change, and present our freely available ADAPTER "productplatform" devised to help agricultural stakeholders adapt to climate change

A review of hydro-meteorological hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment frameworks and indicators in the context of nature-based solutions

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are increasingly being implemented as suitable approaches for reducing vulnerability and risk of social-ecological systems (SES) to hydro-meteorological hazards. Understanding vulnerability and risk of SES is crucial in order to design and implement NBS projects appropriately. A systematic literature review was carried out to examine the suitability of, or gaps in, existing frameworks for vulnerability and risk assessment of SES to hydro-meteorological hazards. The review confirms that very few frameworks have been developed in the context of NBS. Most of the frameworks have emphasised social systems over ecological systems. Furthermore, they have not explicitly considered the temporal dimension of risk reduction measures. The study proposes an indicator-based vulnerability and risk assessment framework in the context of NBS (VR-NBS) that addresses both the above limitations and considers established NBS principles. The framework aims to allow for a better consideration of the multiple benefits afforded by NBS and which impact all the dimensions of risk. A list of 135 indicators is identified through literature review and surveys in NBS project sites. This list is composed of indicators representing the social sub-system (61% of total indicators) and the ecological sub-system (39% of total indicators). The list will act as a reference indicator library in the context of NBS projects and will be regularly updated as lessons are learnt. While the proposed VR-NBS framework is developed considering hydro-meteorological hazards and NBS, it can be adapted for other natural hazards and different types of risk reduction measures. © 202

Net-zero CO2 Germany: a retrospect from the year 2050

Germany 2050: For the first time Germany reached a balance between its sources of anthropogenic CO2 to the atmosphere and newly created anthropogenic sinks. This backcasting study presents a fictional future in which this goal was achieved by avoiding (similar to 645 Mt CO2), reducing (similar to 50 Mt CO2) and removing (similar to 60 Mt CO2) carbon emissions. This meant substantial transformation of the energy system, increasing energy efficiency, sector coupling, and electrification, energy storage solutions including synthetic energy carriers, sector-specific solutions for industry, transport, and agriculture, as well as natural-sink enhancement and technological carbon dioxide options. All of the above was necessary to achieve a net-zero CO2 system for Germany by 2050.Plain Language Summary Here a net-zero-2050 Germany is envisioned by combining analysis from an energy-system model with insights into approaches that allow for a higher carbon circularity in the German system, and first results from assessments of national carbon dioxide removal potentials. A back-casting perspective is applied on how net-zero Germany could look like in 2050. We are looking back from 2050, and analyzing how Germany for the first time reached a balance between its sources of CO2 to the atmosphere and the anthropogenic sinks created. This would consider full decarbonization in the entire energy sector and being entirely emission-free by 2050 within three priorities identified as being the most useful strategies for achieving net-zero: (a) Avoiding- (b) Reducing- (c) Removing emissions. This work is a collaboration of interdisciplinary scientists with the Net-Zero-2050 cluster of the Helmholtz Climate Initiative HI-CAM.Industrial Ecolog