Referrals: Peer Screening and Enforcement in a Consumer Credit Field Experiment

Empirical evidence on peer intermediation lags behind many years of lending practice and a large body of theory in which lenders use peers to mitigate adverse selection and moral hazard. Using a simple referral incentive mechanism under individual liability, we develop and implement a two-stage field experiment that permits separate identification of peer screening and enforcement effects. We allow for borrower heterogeneity in both ex-ante repayment type and ex-post susceptibility to social pressure. Our key contribution is how we deal with the interaction between these two sources of asymmetric information. Our method allows us to cleanly identify selection on the likelihood of repayment, selection on the susceptibility to social pressure, and loan enforcement. We estimate peer effects on loan repayment in our setting, and find no evidence of screening (albeit with an imprecisely estimated zero) and large effects on enforcement. We then discuss the potential utility and portability of the methodological innovation, for both science and for practice.

Empagliflozin is associated with improvements in liver enzymes potentially consistent with reductions in liver fat: results from randomised trials including the EMPA-REG OUTCOME® trial

Aims/hypothesis: In addition to beneficial effects on glycaemia and cardiovascular death, empagliflozin improves adiposity indices. We investigated the effect of empagliflozin on aminotransferases (correlates of liver fat) in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Methods: Changes from baseline alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were assessed in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME® trial (n = 7020), pooled data from four 24-week placebo-controlled trials (n = 2477) and a trial of empagliflozin vs glimepiride over 104 weeks (n = 1545). Analyses were performed using data from all participants and by tertiles of baseline aminotransferases. Results: In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME® trial, mean ± SE changes from baseline ALT at week 28 were −2.96 ± 0.18 and −0.73 ± 0.25 U/l with empagliflozin and placebo, respectively (adjusted mean difference: −2.22 [95% CI −2.83, −1.62]; p < 0.0001). Reductions in ALT were greatest in the highest ALT tertile (placebo-adjusted mean difference at week 28: −4.36 U/l [95% CI −5.51, −3.21]; p < 0.0001). The adjusted mean difference in change in ALT was −3.15 U/l (95% CI −4.11, −2.18) with empagliflozin vs placebo at week 24 in pooled 24-week data, and −4.88 U/l (95% CI −6.68, −3.09) with empagliflozin vs glimepiride at week 28. ALT reductions were largely independent of changes in weight or HbA1c. AST changes showed similar patterns to ALT, but the reductions were considerably lower. Conclusions/interpretation: These highly consistent results suggest that empagliflozin reduces aminotransferases in individuals with type 2 diabetes, in a pattern (reductions in ALT>AST) that is potentially consistent with a reduction in liver fat, especially when ALT levels are high

Cardiovascular Outcomes Trials in Type 2 Diabetes: Where Do We Go From Here? Reflections From a Diabetes Care Editors’ Expert Forum

In December 2008, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued guidance to the pharmaceutical industry setting new expectations for the development of antidiabetes drugs for type 2 diabetes. This guidance expanded the scope and cost of research necessary for approval of such drugs by mandating long-term cardiovascular outcomes trials (CVOTs) for safety. Since 2008, 9 CVOTs have been reported, 13 are under way, and 4 have been terminated. Reassuringly, each of the completed trials demonstrated the noninferiority of their respective drugs to placebo for their primary cardiovascular (CV) composite end point. Notably, four additionally provided evidence of CV benefit in the form of significant decreases in the primary CV composite end point, two suggested reductions in CV death, and three suggested reductions in all-cause mortality. Although these trials have yielded much valuable information, whether that information justifies the investment of time and resources is controversial. In June 2016, a Diabetes Care Editors' Expert Forum convened to review the processes and challenges of CVOTs, discuss the benefits and limitations of their current designs, and weigh the merits of modifications that might improve the efficiency and clinical value of future trials. Discussion and analysis continued with the CVOT trial results released in June 2017 at the American Diabetes Association's Scientific Sessions and in September 2017 at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes scientific meeting. This article summarizes the discussion and findings to date

Downregulation of exosomal miR-204-5p and miR-632 as a biomarker for FTD: a GENFI study

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether exosomal microRNAs (miRNAs) in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of patients with frontotemporal dementia (FTD) can serve as diagnostic biomarkers, we assessed miRNA expression in the Genetic Frontotemporal Dementia Initiative (GENFI) cohort and in sporadic FTD. METHODS: GENFI participants were either carriers of a pathogenic mutation in progranulin, chromosome 9 open reading frame 72 or microtubule-associated protein tau or were at risk of carrying a mutation because a first-degree relative was a known symptomatic mutation carrier. Exosomes were isolated from CSF of 23 presymptomatic and 15 symptomatic mutation carriers and 11 healthy non-mutation carriers. Expression of 752 miRNAs was measured using quantitative PCR (qPCR) arrays and validated by qPCR using individual primers. MiRNAs found differentially expressed in symptomatic compared with presymptomatic mutation carriers were further evaluated in a cohort of 17 patients with sporadic FTD, 13 patients with sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD) and 10 healthy controls (HCs) of similar age. RESULTS: In the GENFI cohort, miR-204-5p and miR-632 were significantly decreased in symptomatic compared with presymptomatic mutation carriers. Decrease of miR-204-5p and miR-632 revealed receiver operator characteristics with an area of 0.89 (90% CI 0.79 to 0.98) and 0.81 (90% CI 0.68 to 0.93), respectively, and when combined an area of 0.93 (90% CI 0.87 to 0.99). In sporadic FTD, only miR-632 was significantly decreased compared with AD and HCs. Decrease of miR-632 revealed an area of 0.90 (90% CI 0.81 to 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Exosomal miR-204-5p and miR-632 have potential as diagnostic biomarkers for genetic FTD and miR-632 also for sporadic FTD

Insights from CREDENCE trial indicate an acute drop in estimated glomerular filtration rate during treatment with canagliflozin with implications for clinical practice

Canagliflozin slows the progression of chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes and induces a reversible acute drop in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), believed to be a hemodynamic effect. Predictors of the initial drop and its association with long-term eGFR trajectories and safety outcomes are unknown. To assess this, we performed a post-hoc analysis of 4289 participants in the CREDENCE trial with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease equally split into treatment and placebo groups who had eGFR measured at both baseline and week three. The eGFR was categorized at week three as greater than a 10% decline; between 0 and 10% decline; and no decline. Long-term eGFR trajectories and safety outcomes were estimated in each category of acute eGFR change by linear mixed effects models and Cox regression after adjustment for baseline characteristics and medications use. Significantly more participants in the canagliflozin (45%) compared to the placebo (21%) group experienced an acute drop in eGFR over 10%. An over 30% drop occurred infrequently (4% of participants with canagliflozin and 2% with placebo). The odds ratio for a drop in eGFR over 10% with canagliflozin compared to placebo was significant at 3.03 (95% confidence interval 2.65, 3.47). Following the initial drop in eGFR, multivariable adjusted long-term eGFR trajectories, as well as overall and kidney safety profiles, in those treated with canagliflozin were similar across eGFR decline categories. Thus, although acute drops in eGFR over 10% occurred in nearly half of all participants following initiation of canagliflozin, the clinical benefit of canagliflozin was observed regardless. Additionally, safety outcomes were similar among subgroups of acute eGFR drop

Evaluating the Effects of Canagliflozin on Cardiovascular and Renal Events in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease According to Baseline HbA1c, Including Those with HbA1c <7%: Results From the CREDENCE Trial

Traditional management of diabetes mellitus has focused on glycemic control, beginning with lifestyle changes, followed by metformin, and then other classes of antiglycemic agents.1 Sodium glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce cardiovascular (CV) events, including CV death, myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure, and slow progression of renal dysfunction, including prevention of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD).2-3 Because initial clinical trials included mostly patients with baseline HbA1c >7%, current guidelines have recommended this class as add-on therapy for patients whose HbA1c is not at goal, typically ≥7%.1 We hypothesized that there would be similar benefits on CV and renal endpoints regardless of baseline HbA1c, including those with HbA1c <7%

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors and Risk of Hyperkalemia in People with Type 2 Diabetes: A Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data from Randomized, Controlled Trials

Background: Hyperkalemia increases risk of cardiac arrhythmias and death and limits the use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, which improve clinical outcomes in people with chronic kidney disease or systolic heart failure. Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of cardiorenal events in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk or with chronic kidney disease. However, their effect on hyperkalemia has not been systematically evaluated. Methods: A meta-analysis was conducted using individual participant data from randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical outcome trials with SGLT2 inhibitors in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk or with chronic kidney disease in whom serum potassium levels were routinely measured. The primary outcome was time to serious hyperkalemia, defined as central laboratory-determined serum potassium ≥6.0 mmol/L, with other outcomes including investigator-reported hyperkalemia events and hypokalemia (serum potassium ≤3.5 mmol/L). Cox regression analyses were performed to estimate treatment effects from each trial with hazards ratios and corresponding 95% CIs pooled with random-effects models to obtain summary treatment effects, overall and across key subgroups. Results: Results from 6 trials were included comprising 49 875 participants assessing 4 SGLT2 inhibitors. Of these, 1754 participants developed serious hyperkalemia, and an additional 1119 investigator-reported hyperkalemia events were recorded. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of serious hyperkalemia (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.76-0.93]), an effect consistent across studies (Pheterogeneity=0.71). The incidence of investigator-reported hyperkalemia was also lower with SGLT2 inhibitors (hazard ratio, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.68-0.93]; Pheterogeneity=0.21). Reductions in serious hyperkalemia were observed across a range of subgroups, including baseline kidney function, history of heart failure, and use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor, diuretic, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist. SGLT2 inhibitors did not increase the risk of hypokalemia (hazard ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.94-1.15]; Pheterogeneity=0.42). Conclusions: SGLT2 inhibitors reduce the risk of serious hyperkalemia in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk or with chronic kidney disease without increasing the risk of hypokalemia

Effects of Canagliflozin on Cardiovascular, Renal, and Safety Outcomes in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease According to History of Heart Failure: Results From the CREDENCE Trial

We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of canagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy according to prior history of heart failure in the Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation (CREDENCE) trial. We found that participants with a prior history of heart failure at baseline (15%) were more likely to be older, female, white, have a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and use diuretics and beta blockers (all P0.150). These results support the efficacy and safety of canagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy regardless of prior history of heart failure

Effect of Canagliflozin on Total Cardiovascular Burden in Patients With Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease: A Post Hoc Analysis From the CREDENCE Trial

BACKGROUND: The sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor canagliflozin reduced the risk of first cardiovascular composite events in the CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation) trial. In this post hoc analysis, we evaluated the effect of canagliflozin on total (first and recurrent) cardiovascular events. METHODS AND RESULTS: The CREDENCE trial compared canagliflozin or matching placebo in 4401 patients with type 2 diabetes, albuminuria, and estimated glomerular filtration rate of 30 to <90 mL/min per 1.73 m2, over a median of 2.6 years. The primary outcome was analyzed as a composite of any cardiovascular event including myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, hospitalization for unstable angina, and cardiovascular death. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the effect of canagliflozin on the net burden of cardiovascular events. During the trial, 634 patients had 883 cardiovascular events, of whom 472 (74%) had just 1 cardiovascular event and 162 (26%) had multiple cardiovascular events. Canagliflozin reduced first cardiovascular events by 26% (hazard ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.63– 0.86]; P<0.001) and total cardiovascular events by 29% (incidence rate ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.59– 0.86]; P<0.001). The absolute risk difference per 1000 patients treated over 2.5 years was −44 (95% CI, −67 to −21) first cardiovascular events and −73 (95% CI, −114 to −33) total events. CONCLUSIONS: Canagliflozin reduced cardiovascular events, with a larger absolute benefit for total cardiovascular than first cardiovascular events. These findings provide further support for the benefit of continuing canagliflozin therapy after an initial event to prevent recurrent cardiovascular events

Duration of diabetes and cardiorenal efficacy of liraglutide and semaglutide: A post hoc analysis of the LEADER and SUSTAIN 6 clinical trials

Cardiovascular risk reduction with liraglutide and semaglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes was demonstrated in the LEADER (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01179048) and SUSTAIN 6 (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01720446) cardiovascular outcome trials. This post hoc analysis assessed the impact of diabetes duration (<5, 5 to <15, 15 to <25 and ≥25 years at baseline) on cardiorenal efficacy of these human glucagon-like peptide-1 analogues using a Cox proportional hazards model. Proportions of patients in the LEADER trial across diabetes duration strata were 15% (<5 years, n = 1377), 50% (5 to <15 years, n = 4692), 27% (15 to <25 years, n = 2504) and 8% (≥25 years, n = 748); corresponding proportions in the SUSTAIN-6 trial were 13% (<5 years, n = 422), 48% (5 to <15 years, n = 1582), 30% (15 to <25 years, n = 977) and 10% (≥25 years, n = 316). Overall, longer diabetes duration was associated with higher age; higher prevalence of females; history of ischaemic stroke, peripheral arterial disease and insulin use; and inferior renal function. There was an increased frequency of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), expanded MACE and nephropathy events with increasing diabetes duration. Liraglutide and semaglutide consistently reduced the risk of cardiorenal outcomes across categories of diabetes duration (P-interaction was not significant for all endpoints analysed)