Etude de la fonte nivale et des températures en vue de la prévision hydrologique (du ponctuel au spatial)

En zone de montagne, et particulièrement dans les Alpes du Nord, l'amélioration des modèles de prévision de crues est un enjeu scientifique et opérationnel important, du fait notamment des changements climatiques et environnementaux qui modifient le fonctionnement des systèmes hydrologiques. Les apports liés à la fonte nivale constituent une difficulté spécifique à la modélisation hydrologique dans les Alpes. Cette thèse entend contribuer à améliorer les modèles dans ce domaine, à deux niveaux. Dans un premier temps un modèle de fonte de neige performant à l'échelle ponctuelle a été explicité, utilisant un minimum de variables météorologiques. Pour cela l'approche dite degré jour , qui permet d'estimer en fonction de la température de l'air la lame d'eau déstockée par le manteau neigeux, a été reprise. Grâce aux données acquises par le Centre d'Etude de la Neige sur le site expérimental du Col de Porte (Chartreuse), plusieurs formulations ont été testées prenant notamment en compte le stock de froid du manteau neigeux et les effets liés au cycle saisonnier, à travers un coefficient de fonte explicité à l'aide d'une sinusoïde. Dans un deuxième temps, l'accent est mis sur la régionalisation de la donnée d'entrée fondamentale pour ce modèle degré jour : la température de l'air. La spatialisation des champs de température a été étudiée à l'aide d'outils géostatistiques, en se focalisant sur une meilleure compréhension des gradients altimétriques de température. L'objectif est de mieux cartographier les températures au pas de temps infra journalier et de déterminer un modèle d'interpolation pertinent et simple. Les perspectives sur l'utilisation des résultats obtenus dans ces deux phases de modélisation sont abordées en vue d'une utilisation future des modèles degré jour sur des bassins versants de montagne.In mountain areas, and especially in the northern Alps, the improving of flood forecasting models is an important scientific and operational issue, due to environmental and climatic changes which modify hydrological system. Snow melt contributions are a specific difficulty in the hydrological modelling in the Alps. This thesis is concerning in improving snow melt modelling for hydrological forecasting. In a first step a snow melt model at a local scale is formulated, using a minimum of meteorological variables. For this the degree day model, which allows predicting the water release by snow function of air temperature, is used. Thanks to data of the Centre d'Etude de la Neige on the experimental site of Col de Porte (Chartreuse), several formulations have been tested with some interesting concepts, like the cold content of snow and the effect of seasons with a melt factor given with a sinusoidal expression. In a second step, we are interested in the regionalization of the most important parameter for the snow melt model: air temperature. The spatial interpolation of temperature in mountainous areas is done with geostatistical tools, focusing on a better understanding of the elevation lapse rate of temperature. The goal is mapping air temperatures at a sub daily time step and to propose a simple and relevant model. Prospects about these results of snowmelt modelling and temperatures interpolation are given for using them in mountainous catchments.SAVOIE-SCD - Bib.électronique (730659901) / SudocGRENOBLE1/INP-Bib.électronique (384210012) / SudocGRENOBLE2/3-Bib.électronique (384219901) / SudocSudocFranceF

Distributed vs. semi-distributed simulations of snowpack dynamics in alpine areas: case study in the upper Arve catchment, French Alps, 1989–2015

We evaluated distributed and semi-distributed modeling approaches to simulating the spatial and temporal evolution of snow and ice over an extended mountain catchment, using the Crocus snowpack model. The distributed approach simulated the snowpack dynamics on a 250-m grid, enabling inclusion of terrain shadowing effects. The semi-distributed approach simulated the snowpack dynamics for discrete topographic classes characterized by elevation range, aspect, and slope. This provided a categorical simulation that was subsequently spatially re-projected over the 250-m grid used for the distributed simulations. The study area (the upper Arve catchment, western Alps, France) is characterized by complex topography, including steep slopes, an extensive glaciated area, and snow cover throughout the year. Simulations were carried out for the period 1989–2015 using the SAFRAN meteorological forcing system. The simulations were compared using four observation datasets including point snow depth measurements, seasonal and annual glacier surface mass balance, snow covered area evolution based on optical satellite sensors, and the annual equilibrium-line altitude of glacier zones, derived from satellite images. The results showed that in both approaches the Crocus snowpack model effectively reproduced the snowpack distribution over the study period. Slightly better results were obtained using the distributed approach because it included the effects of shadows and terrain characteristics

Medicação antipânico e função pulmonar em pacientes com transtorno de pânico

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest an association between panic disorder (PD) and impairment of lung function. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate lung function in 11 asymptomatic PD patients and to investigate antipanic drug effects on respiratory function. METHOD: Lung function was evaluated on two different occasions (with antipanic drugs and after drug washout). It was comprised of a spirometric evaluation and a bronchodilation test (salbutamol inhalation). Subjective Units of Disturbance Scale (SUDS) was applied before and after each spirometric assessment. RESULTS: One patient showed mild obstructive airway impairment. Before bronchodilation test forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1) and forced expiratory flow between 25% and 75% of the forced vital capacity (FEF25-75) were significantly higher in patients on antipanic drugs than in those in the washout period. After salbutamol inhalation, only FEV1 was significantly higher in patients with antipanic drugs in comparison to the other group, whereas a significant increase in FEV1 and FEF25-75 after salbutamol inhalation was detected in patients without antipanic drugs. The subjective anxiety level was not different among PD patients in both test days. DISCUSSION: These results suggest a possible beneficial effect of the antipanic drug on lung function in PD patients.CONTEXTO: Estudos sugerem uma associação entre transtorno de pânico (TP) e prejuízos na função pulmonar. OBJETIVOS: Avaliar a função pulmonar em 11 pacientes com TP assintomáticos e investigar efeitos da medicação antipânico na função respiratória. MÉTODO: A função pulmonar foi avaliada em duas ocasiões diferentes (com medicação antipânico e após "washout"). Consistiu de uma avaliação espirométrica e do teste de broncodilatação (inalação de salbutamol). Subjective Units of Disturbance Scale (SUDS) foi aplicada antes e após cada teste espirométrico. RESULTADOS: Um paciente apresentou obstrução leve de vias aéreas. Antes do teste de broncodilatação, o volume expiratório forçado no primeiro segundo (VEF1) e o fluxo expiratório forçado entre 25% e 75% da capacidade vital forçada (FEF25-75) foram significativamente maiores em pacientes com medicação antipânico do que no período de "washout". Após a inalação de salbutamol, apenas o VEF1 foi significativamente maior em pacientes com medicação antipânico em comparação ao outro grupo, embora tenha sido detectado aumento significativo em VEF1 e FEF25-75 em pacientes sem medicação antipânico depois da inalação de salbutamol. O nível de ansiedade subjetiva não foi diferente entre os pacientes em ambos os dias de testes. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sugerem uma possível ação benéfica da medicação antipânico na função pulmonar em pacientes com TP