Effects of Oil Price Shocks on German Business Cycles

In this paper we analyse to what extent movements in oil prices can help to explain business cycle fluctuations in Germany.We proceed in several steps:As a starting point we use a standard real business cycle model for the German economy and introduce energy as an additional factor in the production function. As in Kim/Loungani (1992) our finding is that oil price shocks increase the volatility of output but only to a limited extent.We therefore continue by using a real business cycle model for a small open economy and again include energy use in the production function (de Miguel et al. 2003).But compared to our previous model we could only find an additional increase in volatility of output under certain conditions. Subsequently,we use these models to analyse whether the impact of oil price movements has changed over time by splitting our data set into two subsamples: the first from 1970 to 1986 and the second from 1987 to 2002.The main results suggest that the reduced importance of energy for industrial production substantially decreases the vulnerability of the German economy with regard to oil price shocks.Oil prices, business cycle, small open economy

Stock Market Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the Federal Reserve Bank

In this paper we examine the link between stock market uncertainty and monetary policy in the US. There are strong arguments why central banks should account for stock market uncertainty in their strategy. Amongst others, they can maintain the functioning of financial markets and moderate possible economic downswings. To describe the behavior of the Federal Reserve Bank, augmented forward-looking Taylor rules are estimated by GMM. The standard specification is expanded by a measure for stock market uncertainty, which is estimated by an exponential GARCH-model.We show that, given a certain level of inflation and output, US central bank rates are significantly lower when stock market uncertainty is high and vice versa. These results are achieved by using the federal funds rate from 1980:10 to 2007:7.Monetary policy rules, financial markets, stock market uncertainty, EGARCH

Monetary policy and commodity price shocks

This paper analyses the effects of commodity price shocks in a new Keynesian model. The focus is on the central bank's choice of inflation target and the degree of real wage rigidity. It turns out that using core inflation rather than headline inflation is the superior strategy. Targeting expected headline inflation, as practiced by most central banks, is a viable practical alternative to the core inflation target. Simulations illustrate these points. The introduction of real wage rigidity into the model does not change these conclusions. Real wage rigidity does, however, imply second-round effects, making the monetary policy response, the inflation peak and the output drop more pronounced. Although in practice many of the assumptions of the model, such as full information, do not hold, lessons can be drawn for monetary policy. In case of a commodity supply shock, central banks would do well to focus on some measure of core inflation rather than headline inflation so as to reduce the volatility of both inflation and output. A communication strategy that places greater emphasis on underlying and expected inflation could serve to anchor inflation expectations.

Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?

Recent oil price shocks have relatively small effects on real economic activity and inflation compared to the experiences of the seventies and the early eighties. In this paper we analyse possible reasons for these phenomena using the example of the German economy. At first, by estimating a VAR-model and calculating impulse responses to an oil price shock it is confirmed that the macroeconomic effects have become much smaller. Moreover, our simulations show that oil price hikes are more closely related to global economic activity since the early nineties.Then, to get a deeper understanding of the structural changes which are responsible for these results we utilize a new Keynesian open economy model. It becomes obvious that the small effects of the recent oil price shocks on the German economy can be explained by a combination of a reduced energy cost share and good luck in terms of a strong growing global economy. Hence, if global economic growth decreases, pure oil price shocks may still have substantial effects on the German economy, even if the energy pricevulnerability has been reduced.These results should be valid also for other oil importing countries, at least from a qualitative point of view.Oil prices, new Keynesian open economy model

Inflation Forecasting with Inflation Sentiment Indicators

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment.We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation indicators for the US and Germany, we demonstrate that our inflation sentiment indicators improve forecast accuracy in comparison to a standard Phillips curve approach. Because the forecast performance is particularly good for longer horizons, we also compare our indicators to traditional measures of core inflation.Here, the sentiment indicators outperform the weighted median and show a similar forecasting power as a trimmed mean. Thus, they offer a convincing alternative to traditional core inflation measures.Inflation forecasting, monetary policy

Informationsbeurteilungsfähigkeit - Eine Pilotstudie an Zürcher Gymnasien

Der Beitrag hinterfragt, wie (junge) Menschen mit im WWW gefundenen Informationen umgehen. Des Weiteren werden Fragen aufgeworfen wie: über welche Fähigkeiten verfügen Jugendliche, um im Internet gefundene Informationen sinnvoll bewerten und gegebenenfalls weiterverwenden oder verwerfen zu können? Erkennen die WWW-Nutzer bestimmten Informationen zugrunde liegende Ideologien oder Interessen? Kennen sie ihre Grenzen im Umgang mit ihnen unbekannten Wissenselementen? Mögliche Antworten auf diese Fragen versuchten die Autoren im Rahmen einer Pilotstudie, die an Zürcher Gymnasien durchgeführt wurde, zu finden. Dabei verfolgen sie auch ein pragmatisches Ziel: Sie wollen schließlich Wege aufzeigen, wie Schülerinnen und Schüler sowie Studierende beim Aufbau solcher Fähigkeiten mit einem Lehrmittel unterstützt werden können

Nicht-keynesianische Effekte der Fiskalpolitik: Eine Übersicht

Keynesianisch orientierte Wirtschaftswissenschaftler gehen davon aus, dass fiskalische Impulse das durch eine schwache Binnennachfrage bedingte niedrige Wirtschaftswachstum anregen können. Sind jedoch auch negative Einkommenseffekte möglich? Welche nicht-keynesianischen Effekte der Fiskalpolitik sind aus den gängigen und aus den neuen Makromodellen abzuleiten? Wie wirken sich verzerrende Steuern, der Verschuldungsgrad und das Ausmaß der Fiskalpolitik aus? --

Simple transitive 2-representations of small quotients of Soergel bimodules

In all finite Coxeter types but I-2(12), I-2(18), and I-2(30), we classify simple transitive 2-representations for the quotient of the 2-category of Soergel bimodules over the coinvariant algebra which is associated with the two-sided cell that is the closest one to the two-sided cell containing the identity element. It turns out that, in most of the cases, simple transitive 2-representations are exhausted by cell 2-representations. However, in Coxeter types I-2(2k), where k >= 3, there exist simple transitive 2-representations which are not equivalent to cell 2-representations.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Nanoscale Lithography and Thermometry with Thermal Scanning Probes

Thermal scanning probe lithography (t-SPL) is an advanced lithography technique in which a heated atomic force microscope tip locally modifies a sample material. Due to the nanometer-sized tip apex diameter, t-SPL enables patterning of sub-10 nm structures at a low cost compared to electron beam or extreme ultraviolet lithography techniques. In the first part of this dissertation, two novel materials are investigated as a resist for t-SPL, which have in common that fast heating and cooling rates are required to modify them. The first material is a fluorescent supramolecular polymer, which exhibits thermoresponsive luminescence due to reversible aggregation of excimer-forming fluorophores. At temperatures above 180 °C under ultraviolet light, the material fluoresces in green and when cooled down to room temperature, a spectral shift towards red emission takes place due due to aggregation of the fluorescent moieties. Unlike at the macroscale, where the fast aggregation of the fluorophores prevent kinetical trapping of the green fluorescent high-temperature state, the heating and cooling rates (on the order of 10^8 K/s) accessible by t-SPL are fast enough to freeze the green fluorescent state. The thermomechanical properties of the supramolecular glass are analyzed by nanoindentation with a heated probe and the self-healing behavior of the material is used to selectively write and erase indents. It is demonstrated that t-SPL patterning enables the fabrication of topographical and fluorescent structures with interesting properties. The second material is silk fibroin, a protein extracted from silk produced by the larvae of bombyx mori moths or certain spiders. The polymorphic structure of silk fibroin enables a solubility contrast between the amorphous and cross-linked phase. In this work, water-insoluble silk fibroin thin films are fabricated by spin coating and immersion in ethanol. During t-SPL patterning, local heating of of silk fibroin at high heating rates induces water-solubility. The resolution and line edge roughness are compared to the molecular size of the resist, which poses the ultimate resolution limit. In addition, grayscale lithography with silk is demonstrated. Silk fibroin is also explored as a resist for dry etching by demonstration of a pattern transfer from t-SPL fabricated patterns in silk fibroin into silicon oxide. A second part of the thesis concerns the planning and assembly of a setup for nanoscale thermometry in combination with thermal scanning probes, and implementation of the necessary software. The construction of a dedicated setup to perform nanometer scale thermometry at the tip of a cantilever is motivated by the difficulty to measure or calculate the temperature at the tip during operation. Among many nanoscale thermometry techniques, fluorescence based thermometry using nanodiamonds with nitrogen vacancy defects has been evaluated as promising. The components and the assembly of the setup, consisting of a excitation laser, an inverted optical microscope, a single photon detector and stages for scanning, are described and discussed. Initial results of thermometry with micrometer particles are presented and measurements with nanoparticles on a heated tip are shown. Good agreement with experiments from literature was found

Stadt, Land Me(e/h)r - ein Mosaik der Integration?

Zum Abschluss des Jungen Forums 2009 wurde im Sinne des Tagungsthemas "Integration" ein neuer Ansatz der Plenumsarbeit ausprobiert. Mithilfe der Methode "OpenSpace" wurden in den Arbeitsgruppen vorbereitete Fragestellungen übergreifend diskutiert und die Ergebnisse reflektiert. Hier erreichte die Diskussion zwar eine geringere Tiefe als in den Arbeitsgruppen, aber es konnten wichtige Querbezüge der einzelnen Themen hergestellt werden. Das Ergebnis war eine übergreifende Diskussion des Tagungsthemas "Integration - Stadt, Land, Mee(h)r" deren Ergebnis das Junge Forum 2009 gewinnbringend abrundete. Integration wurde als eine Aufgabe herausgestellt, die Planung und Akteure in vielfältiger Weise fordert, was Planungsinhalte und nötige Qualifikationen der Planenden angeht.At the end of its conference, the Junges Forum 2009 (Young Professionals’ Forum) tried a new approach to working in the plenum within the spirit of the conference topic of "integration". The "OpenSpace" method allowed for joined-up discussion of the questions prepared in the working groups and reflection on the results of discussion. This discussion could not be as in-depth as the preceding discussions in the respective working groups, but the results revealed important cross-connections. In a very positive way, the discussion pulled together various aspects of the conference topic of "Integration - Stadt, Land, Mee(h)r" ("Town, country and beyond"), a title which in German plays on the homophony of the words for ‘sea’ and ‘more’. Integration was seen as a multi-faceted challenge to planning and to all of the actors involved, touching both on the content of planning as well as on the qualifications required on the part of planners