No. 08: Climate Change and Food Security in Southern African Cities

The current urban transition in the Global South is at the heart of discussions about the relationship between climate change and food security. This paper explores the links between climate change and food security within the context of the urban transition taking place in Southern Africa. Climate change is expected to negatively accentuate existing levels of urban food insecurity and these adverse impacts are likely to fall disproportionately on the poor. Researchers, planners and policymakers in Southern African cities are starting to explore how changes in weather associated with climate change are likely to affect urban lifestyles and systems. In order to do this, it is important to understand how climate science knowledge is used at the level of the city and how the impacts of climate change might affect city functioning at the metropolitan and household scales. One of the critical areas that has not been addressed in any detail is the extent to which climate change will affect the food security of the city and its inhabitants, especially within the context of high levels of poverty and widespread food and nutrition insecurity. This paper argues that it is important to understand the linkages between climate change and food security in Southern African cities to begin to design and implement pro-poor planning and programming

Vulnerability to environmental change

The material is presented in the form of powerpoint presentations for 6 sections. Activities to accompany the slides are presented here. The slides form the basis of presenting the theory and linking it to key literature. Examples are provided in many places of how the theory is applied in case studies, often from work that the lecturer has been involved in and relevant to the southern African region. It is suggested that teachers who use this material in other contexts draw on local examples to support the theoretical discussions. Course objectives: 1. understand theoretical concepts of vulnerability 2. overview of what methods to use to assess vulnerability 3. understanding of the concept and application of adaptation to climate change. This 4 week module on vulnerability to environmental change is part of a third year course called Sustainability and the Environment (EGS 3021F) in the Department of Environmental and Geographical Science , University of Cape Town. The course introduces the concept of vulnerability and explores its origin, drawing on three different conceptual approaches namely Risk/hazard, Political economy/ecology and Ecological resilience. It then looks at different methods for undertaking vulnerability assessments. Building on the theory and method sections it focuses on why the concept of vulnerability is important in the field of environmental change with a focus on climate change. The international process of assessing the science is explored followed by material addressing adaptation to climate change and examples of vulnerability and adaptation in practice in South Africa

Hedging performance of interest-rate models

This dissertation is a hedging back-study which assesses the effectiveness of interest- rate modelling and the hedging of interest-rate derivatives. Caps that trade in the Johannesburg swap market are hedged using two short-rate models, namely the Hull and White (1990) one-factor model and the subsequent Hull and White (1994) two-factor extension. This is achieved by using the equivalent Gaussian additive-factor models (G1++ and G2++) outlined by Brigo and Mercurio (2007). The hedges are constructed using different combinations of theoretical zero-coupon bonds. A flexible factor hedging method is proposed by the author and the bucket hedging technique detailed by Driessen, Klaasen and Melenberg (2003) is tested. The results obtained support the claims made by Gupta and Subrahmanyam (2005), Fan, Gupta and Ritchken (2007) and others in the literature that multi-factor models outperform one-factor models in hedging interest-rate derivatives. It is also shown that the choice of hedge instruments can significantly influence hedge performance. Notably, a larger set of hedge instruments and the use of hedge instruments with the same maturity as the derivative improve hedging accuracy. However, no evidence to support the finding of Driessen et al. (2003) that a larger set of hedge instruments can remove the need for a multi-factor model is found

Southeast Asian ovalocytosis in the Cape coloured population

Southeast Asian Ovalocytosis (SAO) is an autosomal dominantly inherited, classically asymptomatic condition, that is widespread in Southeast Asian populations of Malasia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines. Some regions have close to 30% prevalence and this is thought to be due to SAO providing partial protection against malaria. SAO is characterized by rigid, spoonshaped, ovalocytic red blood cells. The underlying defect is a deletion of 27bp in the band 3 gene, resulting in the absence of 9 amino acids (400-408) at the boundary of the cytoplasmic and membrane domains of band 3, causing abnormal structure and function. SAO is tightly linked in all cases to the band 3 Memphis 1 polymorphism, which is a lysine 56 (AAG) –glutamic acid (GAG) substitution. This polymorphism can be inherited independently and the prevalence ranges from about 6-30% according to various populations studied. The presence of SAO in a Cape Coloured family is a recent finding. The purpose of this study was to further investigate the prevalence of SAO and the band 3 Memphis 1 polymorphism in the Cape Coloured population. 20 unrelated individuals with SAO morphology were identified. DNA analysis revealed the 27bp deletion of exon 11 of the band 3 gene in all 20 subjects, which is diagnostic of SAO. This indicates a high occurrence of the SAO mutation in the Cape Coloured population, which is speculated to be due to a founder effect. Some of the clinical features differed from classically described SAO as some individuals showed evidence of haemolysis. Protein analysis showed all 20 individuals to have a reduced band 3 mobility, indicating the band 3 Memphis 1 polymorphism. Detecting the band 3 Memphis 1 polymorphism on a protein level is time consuming and labour intensive, therefore a PCR assay, which utilizes DNA, was developed for the rapid screening of this polymorphism. The PCR assay was based on a nucleotide mismatch which created a Taq 1 restriction site when combined with the band 3 Memphis 1 allele, but not with the wild type allele. Digestion of the PCR product with Taq 1 allowed differentiation between the two alleles. It was established that the band 3 Memphis 1 polymorphism has a high prevalence in the Cape Coloured population as it was detected in 108/326 (33%) of the individuals studied. Analysis indicated the Memphis allele is in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.Prof. T.L. Coetzer Dr. H. Abrahams

moving from projects to process

Rising rates of urbanization accompanied by increasing consumption puts the spotlight on how cities can mitigate and adapt to climate change (Wilbankset al. 2007; Sattherthwaiteet al. 2007). Globally, cities are starting to develop policies and plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change (Birkmann et al, 2010; Corburn, 2009; Horton et al. 2010). This is in part driven by the international scientific community that is encouraging adaptation as an important and urgent way to complement on-going mitigation efforts, that have formerly tended to dominate policies and finance (Romero-Lankao 2008). However, in some cases these emerging responses reflect a bottom-up awareness of the need to better plan for climate variability in order to increase the resilience of cities and protect its inhabitants. Many cities in the global South have been slower to develop adaptation responses than some cities in the global North. However, two cities in South Africa, eThekwini and the City of Cape Town, have been leaders in establishing adaptation policies and plans (Roberts 2008, Cartwright et al. 2008, Sattherthwaite 2007, Mukheibir and Ziervogel 2007). Exploring how these have been successful and what the challenges have been is important in developing lessons for other global South cities, where there are large numbers of people exposed to climate hazards. Because climate impacts are one of numerous other challenges, it is necessary to carefully position adaptation within a complex political and institutional landscape. This paper focuses on the five major coastal cities in South Africa, namely the City of Cape Town, Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City, eThekwini and Richards Bay. The analysis is based on interviews in each of these metros undertaken in early 2010 with 17 government actors all involved in adaptation in their different capacities

The Impact of HIV/AIDS in the Context of Socioeconomic Stressors: an Evidence-Driven Approach

In this paper, we present an agent-based simulation model of the social impacts of HIV/AIDS in villages in the Sekhukhune district of the Limpopo province in South Africa. AIDS is a major concern in South Africa, not just in terms of disease spread but also in term of its impact on society and economic development. The impact of the disease cannot however be considered in isolation from other stresses, such as food insecurity, high climate variability, market fluctuations and variations in support from government and non-government sources. The model described in this paper focuses on decisions made at the individual and household level, based upon evidence from detailed case studies, and the different types of networks between these players that influence their decision making. Key to the model is that these networks are dynamic and co-evolving, something that has rarely been considered in social network analysis. The results presented here demonstrate how this type of simulation can aid better understanding of this complex interplay of issues. In turn, we hope that this will prove to be a powerful tool for policy development.Agent-Based Social Simulation, Evidence-Driven Modeling, Socioeconomic Stressors, HIV/AIDS Impact

No. 08: Climate Change and Food Security in Southern African Cities

The current urban transition in the Global South is at the heart of discussions about the relationship between climate change and food security. This paper explores the links between climate change and food security within the context of the urban transition taking place in Southern Africa. Climate change is expected to negatively accentuate existing levels of urban food insecurity and these adverse impacts are likely to fall disproportionately on the poor. Researchers, planners and policymakers in Southern African cities are starting to explore how changes in weather associated with climate change are likely to affect urban lifestyles and systems. In order to do this, it is important to understand how climate science knowledge is used at the level of the city and how the impacts of climate change might affect city functioning at the metropolitan and household scales. One of the critical areas that has not been addressed in any detail is the extent to which climate change will affect the food security of the city and its inhabitants, especially within the context of high levels of poverty and widespread food and nutrition insecurity. This paper argues that it is important to understand the linkages between climate change and food security in Southern African cities to begin to design and implement pro-poor planning and programming

Binding of Ions to Nuclear Chromatin

Ion concentrations in isolated lymphocyte nuclei subjected to KCl or MgCl2 media of varying ionic strength were measured by X-ray microanalysis. Values were corrected for the contribution of free ions by estimating the volume fraction of the water space morphometrically. The amount of bound cations and Cl was constant and independent of the widely varying free ion concentration. It is concluded that the mechanism of binding is counterion condensation but with limited cooperativity. In contrast to classical counterion condensation theory, the binding of ions occurs at oppositely charged clusters at the surface of the chromatin. Therefore, both cations and anions are bound and binding cannot be completely delocalized. The bound ions stabilize the basic chromatin fibre but are not involved in the regulation of the transition between the condensed and decondensed state. Using earlier data, we estimated the concentration of free cations in rat liver nuclei under in-vivo conditions to be in the order of about 80 mM

Effects on the employment relationship of the insolvency of the employer: A worker perspective

The article looks critically at the Insolvency Act prior to the amendments of 2002 and the limited protection it gave workers on the insolvency of their employer. The effect of the Act was that workers’ contracts of employment were automatically terminated by their employer’s insolvency, leaving them with a limited preferent claim against the employer’s insolvent estate. Since certain other creditors (such as the Revenue Service) ranked higher than employees, there was often little left for workers to recover. Another problem was that workers often had no warning of their employer’s insolvency, giving them no opportunity to make representations to save the company – and their jobs. Under pressure from organised labour, the 2002 amendments to the Insolvency Act and the LRA addressed these problems by:• requiring an employer that is facing financial difficulties to advise its employees or their representatives of possible liquidation;• providing that a provisional sequestration or liquidation suspends contracts of employment for a period before they are terminated, rather than terminating them immediately; and• providing for a process of consultation between employees facing dismissal as a result of an insolvency and relevant stakeholders to attempt to reach consensus on appropriate measures to save part or the whole of the business