Cellular automata for population growth prediction: Tripoli-Libya case

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonDue to obstruction in the national plan of urbanization in Tripoli (Libya) and population growth, serious problems have emerged in the form of random settlements, overcrowding and poor infrastructure. After more than two decades of inertia, the government has created a national plan in order to resolve the problems, hence it has enforced the demolition of some zones and modified other (irregularly built) ones, however the process is extremely costly. This research introduces a solution through cellular automata (CA) model to predict growth trends; size of residential, industrial and utilities areas; and to project future population. The model is implemented using digitized land use maps of Tripoli to indicate each areas as group of cells to predict their growth. The model incorporates two types of fuzzy rules bases, the first of which is based on the inputs population and area, and the second of which is based on the three inputs of population, area and density. The population prediction is performed using three scenarios, namely decreasing, fixed and increasing growth rates, such that all possibilities of growth are covered. In addition, the residential area prediction is performed based on two cases: normal density and low density. The former is introduced since new areas tend to have more open spaces and bigger houses. Furthermore, the model considers the growth of the industrial areas to be slower than that of residential areas. The model is developed and validated for the period of 1980 to 2010. The prediction is performed for thirty years from 2010 to 2040. In addition to the CA model, a regression model is developed and tested on the three growth scenarios for the same period (30 years). The prediction results are very close for 2040 in terms of population. The model incorporates the introduction of public services areas that are distributed equally on the growth areas, which occupy about 15-20% of the total area. This model can help the government to develop areas in a proper way and controls the expansion to have well layout and planned of the city, improving people's standard of living sustainably, while protecting the environment with better planning

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Writing competence of junior high school students at two junior high schools in Yogyakarta

The problem limitation in this research is only about English writing competence in junior school and only compare two schools in Yogyakarta, that are MTs Negeri 1 Bantul and SMPN 1 Pengasih. To describe the student writing competencies at two junior high schools. The objectives of this study are to reveal the factors affecting the students writing competencies and to find out the solution to overcome the problem in writing competencies. In collecting data, the researcher used documentation technique. This technique was implemented by making use of teachers’ collection of the students’ writing tasks. Based on the result and analysis, so the conclusion in this research as follows the writing competencies of the ninth grade students of two junior high schools are at good enough level. The factors affecting the students English writing competencies are their ability, the learning process and classroom situation.  When the students weak in grammar, they have to make practice more, and also when they got in doing the difficult assignment. When the step of rhetoric weak, so the students must more practise in daily life, also for the make clarity of meaning and the relationship between ideas can improve by more practice in daily life, they can use the English language. About the weak vocabulary, so the teacher can practice and give more homework about the vocabulary and the task for example in writing and reading a lot of procedure text or story. The solution to overcome the problem in writing competencies such as make a lot of training or practice English in daily life, the teachers should employ active learning to support students engaged in teaching-learning proces