The thyroid cancer policy model: A mathematical simulation model of papillary thyroid carcinoma in The U.S. population

Background: Thyroid cancer affects over ½ million people in the U.S. and the incidence of thyroid cancer has increased worldwide at a rate higher than any other cancer, while survival has remained largely unchanged. The aim of this research was to develop, calibrate and verify a mathematical disease model to simulate the natural history of papillary thyroid cancer, which will serve as a platform to assess the effectiveness of clinical and cancer control interventions. Methods: Herein, we modeled the natural pre-clinical course of both benign and malignant thyroid nodules with biologically relevant health states from normal to detected nodule. Using established calibration techniques, optimal parameter sets for tumor growth characteristics, development rate, and detection rate were used to fit Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) incidence data and other calibration targets. Results: Model outputs compared to calibration targets demonstrating sufficient calibration fit and model validation are presented including primary targets of SEER incidence data and size distribution at detection of malignancy. Additionally, we show the predicted underlying benign and malignant prevalence of nodules in the population, the probability of detection based on size of nodule, and estimates of growth over time in both benign and malignant nodules. Conclusions: This comprehensive model provides a dynamic platform employable for future comparative effectiveness research. Future model analyses will test and assess various clinical management strategies to improve patient outcomes related to thyroid cancer and optimize resource utilization for patients with thyroid nodules

Patient Perspectives on the Extent of Surgery and Radioactive Iodine Treatment for Low-Risk Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

ObjectiveTo understand patient perspective regarding recommended changes in the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. Specifically, in regard to active surveillance (AS) of some small differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), performance of less extensive surgery for low-risk DTC, and more selective administration of radioactive iodine (RAI).MethodsAn online survey was disseminated to thyroid cancer patient advocacy organizations and members of the ATA to distribute to the patients. Data were collected on demographic and treatment information, and patient experience with DTC. Patients were asked "what if" scenarios on core topics, including AS, extent of surgery, and indications for RAI.ResultsSurvey responses were analyzed from 1546 patients with DTC: 1478 (96%) had a total thyroidectomy, and 1167 (76%) underwent RAI. If there was no change in the overall cancer outcome, 606 (39%) of respondents would have considered lobectomy over total thyroidectomy, 536 (35%) would have opted for AS, and 638 (41%) would have chosen to forego RAI. Moreover, (774/1217) 64% of respondents wanted more time with their clinicians when making decisions about the extent of surgery. A total of 621/1167 of patients experienced significant side effects with RAI, and 351/1167 of patients felt that the risks of treatment were not well explained. 1237/1546 (80%) of patients felt that AS would not be overly burdensome, and quality of life was the main reason cited for choosing AS.ConclusionPatient perspective regarding choice in the management of low-risk DTC varies widely, and a large proportion of DTC patients would change aspects of their care if oncologic outcomes were equivalent

Disparities in receipt of a laparoscopic operation for ectopic pregnancy among TRICARE beneficiaries

Background: Racial disparities in receipt of a laparoscopic operation for ectopic pregnancy are attributed to inequalities in access to care. This study sought to determine if racial disparities in laparoscopic operation for ectopic pregnancy exist among a universally insured population.Methods: Using 2006-2010 TRICARE (insurance for members of the United States Armed Services and their dependents) data, patients who received a laparoscopic operation or laparotomy for ectopic pregnancy were stratified into direct/military or purchased/civilian system of care. Odds of receipt of a laparoscopic operation in each racial group were compared adjusting for patient demographics, system of care, and severity of ectopic pregnancy.Results: Among 3,041 patients in the study sample, 1,878 (61.7%) received laparotomy and 1,163 (38.2%) received a laparoscopic operation within 30 days of diagnosis. Overall, 42.4% of white women received a laparoscopic operation compared with 33.1% of Asian women and 34.9% of black women (P \u3c .001). On multivariable analysis, black women had a 33% lesser odds of receiving a laparoscopic operation (odds ratio: 0.67; confidence interval: 0.55-0.83) compared with white women. These disparities were absent within direct care (odds ratio: 0.93; confidence interval: 0.71-1.21) but were present within purchased care (odds ratio: 0.54; confidence interval: 0.40-0.73).Conclusion: Racial minority patients are less likely to receive a laparoscopic operation for ectopic pregnancy despite universal insurance coverage within civilian/purchased care. Further work is warranted to better understand the factors other than insurance access that may contribute to racial disparities in selection of operative approach

Permanent ferroelectric retention of BiFeO3 mesocrystal

Non-volatile electronic devices based on magnetoelectric multiferroics have triggered new possibilities of outperforming conventional devices for applications. However, ferroelectric reliability issues, such as imprint, retention and fatigue, must be solved before the realization of practical devices. In this study, everlasting ferroelectric retention in the heteroepitaxially constrained multiferroic mesocrystal is reported, suggesting a new approach to overcome the failure of ferroelectric retention. Studied by scanning probe microscopy and transmission electron microscopy, and supported via the phase-field simulations, the key to the success of ferroelectric retention is to prevent the crystal from ferroelastic deformation during the relaxation of the spontaneous polarization in a ferroelectric nanocrystal

The thyroid cancer policy model: A mathematical simulation model of papillary thyroid carcinoma in The U.S. population

<div><p>Background</p><p>Thyroid cancer affects over ½ million people in the U.S. and the incidence of thyroid cancer has increased worldwide at a rate higher than any other cancer, while survival has remained largely unchanged. The aim of this research was to develop, calibrate and verify a mathematical disease model to simulate the natural history of papillary thyroid cancer, which will serve as a platform to assess the effectiveness of clinical and cancer control interventions.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Herein, we modeled the natural pre-clinical course of both benign and malignant thyroid nodules with biologically relevant health states from normal to detected nodule. Using established calibration techniques, optimal parameter sets for tumor growth characteristics, development rate, and detection rate were used to fit Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) incidence data and other calibration targets.</p><p>Results</p><p>Model outputs compared to calibration targets demonstrating sufficient calibration fit and model validation are presented including primary targets of SEER incidence data and size distribution at detection of malignancy. Additionally, we show the predicted underlying benign and malignant prevalence of nodules in the population, the probability of detection based on size of nodule, and estimates of growth over time in both benign and malignant nodules.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>This comprehensive model provides a dynamic platform employable for future comparative effectiveness research. Future model analyses will test and assess various clinical management strategies to improve patient outcomes related to thyroid cancer and optimize resource utilization for patients with thyroid nodules.</p></div

Model input parameters.

<p>Model input parameters.</p

State transition diagram.

<p>State transition diagram.</p

Comparison of Thyroid Cancer Policy Model output for prevalence of thyroid nodules (benign or malignant) by age category compared to published cross sectional data of the German population.

<p>Comparison of Thyroid Cancer Policy Model output for prevalence of thyroid nodules (benign or malignant) by age category compared to published cross sectional data of the German population.</p