Environmental payoffs of LPG cooking in India

Over two-thirds of Indians use solid fuels to meet daily cooking energy needs, with associated negative environmental, social, and health impacts. Major national initiatives implemented by the Indian government over the last few decades have included subsidies for cleaner burning fuels like liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene to encourage a transition to these. However, the extent to which these programs have affected net emissions from the use of these improved fuels has not been adequately studied. Here, we estimate the amount of fuelwood displaced and its net emissions impact due to improved access to LPG for cooking in India between 2001 and 2011 using nationally representative household expenditure surveys and census datasets. We account for a suite of climate-relevant emissions (Kyoto gases and other short-lived climate pollutants) and biomass renewability scenarios (a fully renewable and a conservative non-renewable case). We estimate that the national fuelwood displaced due to increased LPG access between 2001 and 2011 was approximately 7.2 million tons. On aggregate, we estimate a net emissions reduction of 6.73 MtCO2e due to the fuelwood displaced from increased access to LPG, when both Kyoto and non-Kyoto climate-active emissions are accounted for and assuming 0.3 as the fraction of non-renewable biomass (fNRB) harvested. However, if only Kyoto gases are considered, we estimate a smaller net emissions decrease of 0.03 MtCO2e (assuming fully renewable biomass harvesting), or 3.05 MtCO2e (assuming 0.3 as the fNRB). We conclude that the transition to LPG cooking in India reduced pressures on forests and achieved modest climate benefits, though uncertainties regarding the extent of non-renewable biomass harvesting and suite of climate-active emissions included in such an estimation can significantly influence results in any given year and should be considered carefully in any analysis and policy-making

Ujjwala at 6 crores: Impact on Cooking Energy Transition and Climate Change

The Pradhan Mantri Ujjawala Yojana (PMUY) has been praised as a landmark initiative that has empowered six crore poor rural women to buy Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as the primary source for cooking. Having an LPG stove in the kitchen has always been an aspiration, which was unaffordable to many, until the capital cost support became available through PMUY in the form of subsidies and a loan facility. However, public debate over whether the beneficiaries are purchasing enough refill cylinders has emerged. In this article we analyze aggregated LPG refill numbers of PMUY beneficiaries by state, and discuss this within the larger perspective of clean cooking transitions and climate change. The pertinent question that remains to be answered is whether the Indian rural population is making a transition towards cleaner fuels like LPG though the advent of PMUY. Therefore it is essential to understand the refill rates of PMUY beneficiaries. In section 2 we discuss inter-state differences in PMUY refill trends and suggest recommendations for policy. Moreover, it is also necessary to also examine the potential impact of LPG consumption by PMUY beneficiaries on the environment(section 3)

Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally

To limit global warming to well-below 2°C (WB2C), fossil fuels must be replaced by low-carbon energy sources. Support for this transition is often dampened by the impact on fossil fuel jobs. Previous work shows that pro-climate polices could increase employment by 20 million net energy jobs, but these studies rely on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) jobs data, assumptions about jobs in non-OECD countries, and a single baseline assumption. Here we combine a global dataset of job intensities across 11 energy technologies and five job categories in 50 countries with an integrated assessment model under three shared socioeconomic pathways. We estimate direct energy jobs under a WB2C scenario and current policy scenarios. We find that, by 2050, energy sector jobs would grow from today's 18 million to 26 million under a WB2C scenario compared with 21 million under the current policy scenario. Fossil fuel extraction jobs would rapidly decline, but losses will be compensated by gains in solar and wind jobs, particularly in the manufacturing sector (totaling 7.7 million in 2050)

A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020-2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.Fil: Mosnier, Aline. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Javalera Rincon, Valeria. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg; AustriaFil: Jones, Sarah K. Alliance of Bioversity International; FranciaFil: Andrew, Robbie. Center for International Climate Research; NoruegaFil: Bai, Zhaohai. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Baker, Justin. North Carolina State University; Estados UnidosFil: Basnet, Shyam. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Boer, Rizaldi. Bogor Agricultural University; IndonesiaFil: Chavarro, John. Geo-agro-environmental Sciences And Resources Research Center; ColombiaFil: Costa, Wanderson. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Daloz, Anne Sophie. Center for International Climate Research; NoruegaFil: DeClerck, Fabrice A.. Alliance of Bioversity International; Francia. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Diaz, Maria. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Douzal, Clara. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah. Sunway University; MalasiaFil: Fetzer, Ingo. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Frank, Federico. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gonzalez Abraham, Charlotte E.. University of California at San Diego; Estados UnidosFil: Habiburrachman, A. H. F.. Universitas Indonesia; IndonesiaFil: Immanuel, Gito. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Harrison, Paula A.. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Imanirareba, Dative. Uganda Martyrs University; UgandaFil: Jha, Chandan. Indian Institute Of Management Ahmedabad; IndiaFil: Monjeau, Jorge Adrian. Fundación Bariloche; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Vittis, Yiorgos. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; AustriaFil: Wade, Chris. North Carolina State University; Estados UnidosFil: Winarni, Nurul L.. Universitas Indonesia; IndonesiaFil: Woldeyes, Firew Bekele. Ethiopian Development Research Institute; EtiopíaFil: Wu, Grace C.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Zerriffi, Hisham. University of British Columbia; Canad

A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities

How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative

There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land-use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g., the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed

Using sales data to assess cooking gas adoption and the impact of India’s Ujjwala programme in rural Karnataka

More than 70 million poor women in India have received liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stoves within the first 35 months under a government programme, Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY). Here, we analyse multi-year LPG sales data from a district in Karnataka to assess enrolment and consumption trends for both PMUY beneficiaries and general (non-PMUY) rural consumers. We find rapid growth in enrolments of LPG consumers, but this is not matched by an increase in LPG sales, suggesting that LPG access has not induced a full transition away from the use of polluting solid fuels. The number of LPG refills among PMUY beneficiaries is less than half that of rural general consumers. We also find no observable increase in LPG consumption among general rural consumers with years of experience. These results suggest that mid-course policy revisions to encourage regular LPG use are needed for both PMUY and general rural consumers