Myths and realities about the recovery of L׳Aquila after the earthquake

AbstractThere is a set of myths which are linked to the recovery of L׳Aquila, such as: the L׳Aquila recovery has come to a halt, it is still in an early recovery phase, and there is economic stagnation. The objective of this paper is threefold: (a) to identify and develop a set of spatial indicators for the case of L׳Aquila, (b) to test the feasibility of a numerical assessment of these spatial indicators as a method to monitor the progress of a recovery process after an earthquake and (c) to answer the question whether the recovery process in L׳Aquila stagnates or not. We hypothesize that after an earthquake the spatial distribution of expert defined variables can constitute an index to assess the recovery process more objectively. In these articles, we aggregated several indicators of building conditions to characterize the physical dimension, and we developed building use indicators to serve as proxies for the socio-economic dimension while aiming for transferability of this approach. The methodology of this research entailed six steps: (1) fieldwork, (2) selection of a sampling area, (3) selection of the variables and indicators for the physical and socio-economic dimensions, (4) analyses of the recovery progress using spatial indicators by comparing the changes in the restricted core area as well as building use over time; (5) selection and integration of the results through expert weighting; and (6) determining hotspots of recovery in L׳Aquila. Eight categories of building conditions and twelve categories of building use were identified. Both indicators: building condition and building use are aggregated into a recovery index. The reconstruction process in the city center of L׳Aquila seems to stagnate, which is reflected by the five following variables: percentage of buildings with on-going reconstruction, partial reconstruction, reconstruction projected residential building use and transport facilities. These five factors were still at low levels within the core area in 2012. Nevertheless, we can conclude that the recovery process in L׳Aquila did not come to a halt but is still ongoing, albeit being slow

Symposium »Demographischer Wandel und Fachkräfteentwicklung – Konsequenzen für Bildung und Handwerk«

Am 23. Februar 2011 veranstaltete das ifo Institut gemeinsam mit dem Bayerischen Handwerkstag ein Symposium unter dem Titel »Demographischer Wandel und Fachkräfteentwicklung – Konsequenzen für Bildung und Handwerk«. Die Veranstaltung unter der Moderation von Sigmund Gottlieb, Chefredakteur des Bayerischen Fernsehens, bot mehreren ausgewiesenen Experten aus dem theoretischen und praktischen Bereich der Bildungs-, Arbeitsmarkt- und Wirtschaftspolitik Gelegenheit, mit Vorträgen das Thema »Demographischer Wandel, Fachkräfteentwicklung und Bildungsqualität« zu beleuchten. Im Anschluss an die Präsentationen von Hans-Peter Klös, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, und Ludger Wößmann, ifo Institut und Universität München, diskutierten – neben den beiden Referenten – Martin Zeil, Bayerischer Staatsminister für Wirtschaft, Infrastruktur, Verkehr und Technologie, Ludwig Spaenle, Bayerischer Staatsminister für Unterricht und Kultus, Heinrich Traublinger, Präsident des Bayerischen Handwerktages, und Hans-Werner Sinn, Präsident des ifo Instituts, Probleme bei der Versorgung der Unternehmen mit qualifizierten Fachkräften und Lösungsansätze für die Herausforderungen im Bildungsbereich und auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Die Videos zur Veranstaltung stehen in der Mediathek des ifo Instituts zur Verfügung unter: http://mediathek.cesifo-group.de.Bevölkerungsentwicklung Erwerbspersonenpotenzial Facharbeiter Arbeitsmarkt Handwerksberufe Bildungsökonomik Deutschland

Spatial vulnerability Indicators applied to recovery and risk reduction after earthquakes: The case of L'Aquila - Italy

Vulnerability assessment is a key contribution to formulate recovery and development policies in the risk management process. The post-disaster phases present the opportunity to address the pre-existent vulnerability conditions in order to reduce the risk and create more resilient societies. The aim of this research is to construct a methodology for monitoring and evaluating the recovery and reconstruction process after earthquakes, based on a framework of spatial vulnerability indicators beyond the physical aspect. The research aims to find the correlation between vulnerability conditions and the dynamics of relief, recovery and development processes and to know which other factors influence the interventions during post-disaster phases. The methodological approach relies on spatial indicators but the idea is to construct an index, which is not only based on physical patterns but also on the social, economical, institutional, cultural and environmental dimensions. The case study area is L’Aquila (Italy), which was shaken by the 6th of April 2009 earthquake. Additionally, key elements could also be extrapolated from the experience collected so far in Bogotá D.C. (Colombia), since this city is currently working on its preimpact recovery planning. The research is divided in five phases. The first one consist of the literature review of the concepts, previous experiences, best practices, indicators theory, vulnerability assessment, post-disaster activities, the application of remote sensing, GIS techniques and statistics methods. The second phase corresponds to the fieldwork, which is divided into four activities: discussions with the key stakeholders, observation of the local conditions, surveys among affected population and collection of spatial data. The last three phases correspond to the analysis using tools and techniques according to the specific topic to be analyzed, the explanation and discussion of the results and the conclusion and recommendations to improve future recovery processe

Spatial connectivity as a recovery process indicator: The L'Aquila earthquake

The main objective of this paper is to prove that spatial connectivity can be an effective spatial indicator for monitoring and evaluating the recovery process after the event of an earthquake. It integrates variables such as distance, travel time and quality of public transport service. We hypothesize that there is a relationship between the connectivity to the central business districts in cities, and the satisfaction with the locations of new settlements assigned to the homeless population during a recovery process. If this hypothesis holds true, then the satisfaction with new settlements will be correlated with the inhabitants' preference to either stay, or to search for a new site. This will then support the evaluation of the success of a recovery process. To prove this relationship we investigated the twelve months recovery process in L'Aquila in Italy. Spatial data sets were used and analyzed using GIS. Fieldwork data and interviews were conducted in order to investigate the satisfaction of persons living in newly established places outside of the city. We compared the strength of the desire of the interviewees to move away, against the travel distance and travel time to the city center. The statistical analysis reveals that the preference to search for another place was significantly correlated with the distance between new settlements and the city center of L'Aquila. To a lesser degree it was correlated with the travel time. The regression indicated that the distance between the new settlements and the inner city strongly influences the preference to either stay or to move

Spatial vulnerability indicators: measuring recovery processes after earthquakes

In order to analyze and evaluate any post-disaster phases it is necessary to address the pre-existent vulnerability conditions. The methodology consists of four steps: the first step comprises of a review of vulnerability and recovery indicators; the second step is to identify indicators based on spatial variables; the third step is to find the common variables among the subsets of spatial variables from vulnerability and recovery indicators; and the fourth step more pragmatic, is an investigation of the availability of data. The initial results are the set of vulnerability and recovery indicators. Reducing the set of indicators to the indicators represented in a spatial context and the indicators with common features of vulnerability and recovery indices bears the risk to ignore some important single indicators; nevertheless, the added value of the on-going research is to show the advantages of using indicators based on spatial variables

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction / Spatial assessment of social vulnerability in the context of landmines and explosive remnants of war in Battambang province, Cambodia

Despite recent progress in reducing the number of victims, landmines and explosive remnants of war (ERW) cause more than 3000 causalities every year, particularly affecting the most vulnerable. Current mine action programmes, however, do not consider prevailing vulnerabilities of affected communities in their priority-setting systems. We emphasise the need to consider social vulnerability in the workflow of mine action, and apply a spatially explicit approach for its assessment at a sub-national scale in Cambodia, one of the world's most heavily affected countries. Drawing on available literature and focus group discussions with domain experts, 16 socioeconomic, demographic and distance-related vulnerability indicators were identified. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to obtain indicator weights, revealing that using firewood for cooking, distance to hospitals and health centres, occupation in the primary sector, poverty, conflict density, illiteracy and living in a rural area are key factors shaping social vulnerability in the context of landmines and ERW. Results were visualised using both 22 km2 grids and sub-district administrative units, a resolution often used by the Cambodian Mine Action and Victim Assistance Authority (CMAA). The results show that social vulnerability is very heterogeneous across the study area (Battambang province) with varying contributions of the underlying indicators. Significant hot spots were identified in the central, north-western, north-eastern, and southern parts of the province. The presented approach provides the means not only to assess but also monitor progress of reconstruction measures to strengthen the resilience of communities exposed to post-conflict impacts such as landmines.(VLID)231723

Application of the MOVE framework for local and sub-national scale levels on flood hazards - contributions to the vulnerability and scale debate

In the context of the EC funded project MOVE (www.move-fp7.eu) a conceptual framework has been developed which bridges concepts for risk assessment used in different scholarly debates in the domains of hazards and climate change. This framework on one hand recognises the scale levels of vulnerability but also integrates different dimensions into the vulnerability domains of susceptibility, exposure and lack of resilience. The Austrian case study focussed on flood hazards in the Salzach catchment. The central objective of the research undertaken was to spatially model and visualise vulnerability for the social, environmental, economic and physical dimension. The approach has been applied for the catchment and local/village scale, rendering homogenous spatial regions of vulnerability believed to be suitable for communication to policy and decision makers. The methodology allows for the spatial and disaggregated representation of vulnerability independent from administrative units as spatial vulnerability units. Next to that, different domains and indicators can be decomposed. A set of different indicators has been developed and spatially integrated through expert consultations. As a result spatially homogenous regions have been modelled applying a multi-resolution segmentation approach to represent the different levels of vulnerability. Next to the various conceptual discussions in vulnerability science, a debate on the ‘scale issue’ is evolving. Within our presentation we specifically highlight established concepts in geography and ecology where scale and scaling issues have been already addressed (such as the hierarchy of scale concept) and relate those to the results obtained from the modelling of vulnerability on the catchment and local/village scale. Limitations in indicator development and data availability as well as the requirements for the different scale levels will be discussed. Most importantly the relevance for different policy scales will be assessed and linked to the legal framework in Austria. Additionally the dichotomy between the policy view of information (as compact as possible) and the expert view (as detailed as possible) will be evaluated in the context of the case studies

I-BEAT: New ultrasonic method for single bunch measurement of ion energy distribution

The shape of a wave carries all information about the spatial and temporal structure of its source, given that the medium and its properties are known. Most modern imaging methods seek to utilize this nature of waves originating from Huygens' principle. We discuss the retrieval of the complete kinetic energy distribution from the acoustic trace that is recorded when a short ion bunch deposits its energy in water. This novel method, which we refer to as Ion-Bunch Energy Acoustic Tracing (I-BEAT), is a generalization of the ionoacoustic approach. Featuring compactness, simple operation, indestructibility and high dynamic ranges in energy and intensity, I-BEAT is a promising approach to meet the needs of petawatt-class laser-based ion accelerators. With its capability of completely monitoring a single, focused proton bunch with prompt readout it, is expected to have particular impact for experiments and applications using ultrashort ion bunches in high flux regimes. We demonstrate its functionality using it with two laser-driven ion sources for quantitative determination of the kinetic energy distribution of single, focused proton bunches.Comment: Paper: 17 Pages, 3 figures Supplementary Material 16 pages, 7 figure