Temperature and precipitation extremes under current, 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial levels over Botswana, and implications for climate change vulnerability

Climate extremes are widely projected to become more severe as the global climate continues to warm due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These extremes often cause the most severe impacts on society. Therefore, the extent to which the extremes might change at regional level as the global climate warms from current levels to proposed policy targets of 1.5 and 2.0 °C above preindustrial levels need to be understood to allow for better preparedness and informed policy formulation. This paper analysed projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over Botswana at 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming, a country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Projected changes in temperature extremes are significantly different from each other at the three levels of global warming. Specifically, at 2.0 °C global warming, relative to preindustrial, for the ensemble median: (a) country average Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) ensemble median increases ensemble range by 80, 65, 62 days per year across different climatic zones, approximately three times the change at 1.0 °C and twice the change at 1.5 °C; (b) cold night (TN10P) and cold day (TX10P) frequencies decrease by 12 and 9 days per year across all regions, respectively, while hot nights (TN90P) and hot days (TX90P) both increase by 8-9 days across all regions. Projected changes in drought related indices also distinct at different warming levels. Specifically: (a) projected mean annual precipitation decreases across the country by 5-12% at 2°C, 3-8% at 1.5 °C and 2-7% at 1.0 °C; (b) the dry spell length (ALTCDD) increases by 15-19 days across the three climatic zones at 2.0 °C, about three (two) times as much as the increase at 1.0 (1.5) °C. Ensemble mean projections are for increases in heavy rainfall indices, but not statistically significant. The implications of these changes for key socio-economic sectors are explored, and reveal progressively severe impacts, and consequent adaptation challenges for Botswana as the global climate warms from its present temperature of 1.0 °C above preindustrial levels to 1.5, and then 2.0 °C

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on regional rainfall and temperature change across India

For a country like India with a primarily agrarian economy, limiting warming to 1.5 °C leads to two key questions: what does the global rise of temperature (1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) mean at the regional scale? and; what are the implications of keeping warming at or below 1.5 °C in particular for agriculture and water resources? Regional level analysis can provide a more segregated picture than a global one based on combined metrics. Details of this study show the distribution of predicted values of changes in regional annual rainfall for the 29 States of India obtained using the 78 General Circulation Model (GCM) models Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) and 105 GCM models (RCP 4.5).UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in semi-arid areas in Southern Africa

Vulnerability; Adaptation; Climate change; semi-arid regions; Southern Africa;International Development Researcj Cemtre amd UK's Department for International Development through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA

Lofotfisket 1959

Drawing on experiences from diverse fields such as biodiversity conservation and watershed development, the authors identify ways in which short-term and long-term weather and climate information can be leveraged towards transformative change. A framework is proposed to help increase utility and uptake across Africa and India. Participatory approaches to designing and interpreting climate information is useful in decision-making. The article provides detail regarding long-range climate projections and local level weather information, as well as the differences between users and producers of such knowledge. The current provision and use of climate information are a critical barrier for adaptation at scale.UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID

Vulnerability and responses to climate change in drylands : the case of Namibia

This paper covers climate trends and projections; impacts of climate change on Namibia’s economic sectors; vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Vulnerability to climate change in Namibia is driven by underlying structural factors, including a history of inappropriate economic policies, gender disparities and colonization, which have led to chronic poverty and inequality. Climate change intersects with these existing structural vulnerabilities and can accentuate or shift the balance between winners and losers. Climate change scenarios and potential impacts should be integrated into development planning so that future development takes place in a ‘climate compatible’ manner.International Development Research Centre (IDRC)UK’s Department for International Development (DFID

EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE FRONTIERS An Early Career Perspective

We, the Young Earth System Scientists community, describe our long-term vision for developing a holistic understanding of the Earth system