Anticipating and Adapting to the Future Impacts of Climate Change on the Health, Security and Welfare of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Communities in Southeastern USA

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to assess risk and its causes, support adaptive management, and improve the resiliency of communities. Better communication of information and understanding among residents and officials is essential. Here we review recent background literature on these matters and offer recommendations for integrating natural and social sciences. We advocate for a cyber-network of scientists, modelers, engineers, educators, and stakeholders from academia, federal state and local agencies, non-governmental organizations, residents, and the private sector. Our vision is to enhance future resilience of LECZ communities by offering approaches to mitigate hazards to human health, safety and welfare and reduce impacts to coastal residents and industries

Gulf Stream Effects on Sea Level Oscillations: Enhancing Performance of a Coastal and Estuarine Model Nested into Global Model through Modified Boundary Conditions

This study investigates the effects of the gulf stream (GS) on sea-level oscillations across various time scales and assesses the performance of a coastal and estuarine model nested within a global model in simulating these variations. It aims to improve boundary conditions to simulate sea-level oscillations more accurately by considering the influence of GS flow. An inverse correlation is observed between observed sea-level oscillation and GS flow, which becomes more pronounced over longer time scales. Using Delft3D, a high-resolution coastal and estuarine model is developed to simulate circulation dynamics in the central Indian River Lagoon (IRL), FL, and adjacent coastal areas on the Florida east coast. The model is nested into the HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model), and meteorological forcings are derived from the NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) model. The model demonstrates satisfactory performance across key parameters, including tide, salinity, water temperature, and currents. However, there remains a noticeable difference between the modeled and observed data. To address this, the model is executed with modified flow boundary conditions at eastern boundary nodes, integrating HYCOM tide, and observing low-frequency sea-level variations. The implementation of the new boundary conditions results in an improved simulation of sea-level oscillations. This study presents the conceptual framework and detailed methodologies employed in the creation of a high-resolution model tailored for estuarine and coastal areas nested into global models capable of satisfactorily simulating sea-level oscillations even when the global model does not represent GS effects

Combining observations and models to enhance coastal resilience and adaptation.

International audienc

Anticipating and Adapting to the Future Impacts of Climate Change on the Health, Security and Welfare of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Communities in Southeastern USA

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to assess risk and its causes, support adaptive management, and improve the resiliency of communities. Better communication of information and understanding among residents and officials is essential. Here we review recent background literature on these matters and offer recommendations for integrating natural and social sciences. We advocate for a cyber-network of scientists, modelers, engineers, educators, and stakeholders from academia, federal state and local agencies, non-governmental organizations, residents, and the private sector. Our vision is to enhance future resilience of LECZ communities by offering approaches to mitigate hazards to human health, safety and welfare and reduce impacts to coastal residents and industries