What is expected for China's SARS-CoV-2 epidemic?

Recently, China announced that its "zero-covid" policy would end, which will bring serious challenges to the country's health system. In here we provide simple calculations that allows us to provide an estimate of what is expected as an outcome in terms of fatalities, using the fact that it is a highly contagious disease that will expose most of a highly vaccinated population to the virus. We use recent findings regarding the amount of reduction in the risk of severe outcome achieved by vaccination and arrive to an estimate of 1.1 m deaths, 60% of these are males. In our model, 84% percent of deaths occur in individuals with age 55 years or older. In a scenario in which this protection is completely lost due to waning and the infection fatality rate of the prevalent strain reaches similar levels to the observed in the beginning of the epidemic, the death toll could reach 2.4 m, 93% in 55 years or older.Comment: 6 pages pdf document, 2 of these are supplementary materia

Reflexiones médicas a propósito de un caso de tromboembolia pulmonar en el embarazo

La mortalidad materna en el mundo es aún alta. La tromboembolia pulmonar como causa de muerte ocupa el segundo lugar en países desarrollados. En Latinoamérica, la frecuencia informada es de 0.6%, lo cual contrasta con la señalada para países desarrollados (14.9%). Esta diferencia puede estar relacionada a sesgos de información. Por tal motivo se revisó la información actual del tema y presentamos un breve caso clínico de una mujer quien presentó evento de tromboembolia pulmonar en la semana 30 del embarazo; el manejo adecuado de la misma, permitió la supervivencia materna y fetal

Clinical Characteristics in the Acute Phase of COVID-19 That Predict Long COVID: Tachycardia, Myalgias, Severity, and Use of Antibiotics as Main Risk Factors, While Education and Blood Group B Are Protective

Background: Risk factors for developing long COVID are not clearly established. The present study was designed to determine if any sign, symptom, or treatment of the acute phase, or personal characteristics of the patient, is associated with the development of long COVID. Methods: A cohort study was carried out, randomly selecting symptomatic COVID-19 patients and not vaccinated. The severity of the acute illness was assessed through the number of compatible COVID-19 symptoms, hospitalizations, and the symptom severity score using a 10-point visual analog scale. Results: After multivariate analysis, a severity score ≥8 (RR 2.0, 95%CI 1.1–3.5, p = 0.022), hospitalization (RR 2.1, 95%CI 1.0–4.4, p = 0.039), myalgia (RR 1.9, 95%CI 1.08–3.6, p = 0.027), tachycardia (RR 10.4, 95%CI 2.2–47.7, p = 0.003), and use of antibiotics (RR 2.0, 95%CI 1.1–3.5, p = 0.022), was positively associated with the risk of having long COVID. Higher levels of education (RR 0.6, 95%CI 0.4–0.9, p = 0.029) and type positive B blood group (B + AB, RR 0.44, 95%CI 0.2–0.9, p = 0.044) were protective factors. The most important population attributable fractions (PAFs) for long COVID were myalgia (37%), severity score ≥8 (31%), and use of antibiotics (27%). Conclusions: Further studies in diverse populations over time are needed to expand the knowledge that could lead us to prevent and/or treat long COVID

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0.603 (0.400-1.00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0.002 (0-0) and 1.75 (0.698-4.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0.114 (0-0.403) to 1.87 (0.500-3.30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0.193 (0-0.900) and 6.94 (3.40-8.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59.1% (54.3-65.4) were aged 15-39 years and 76.9% (73.0-81.3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol