Can the Federal Reserve Bank’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions Forecast Land Values?

The value of land dominates the financial structure of most American agricultural production firms, and land values are an important factor in long-term agricultural planning and risk management. As the primary source of collateral for farm loans, farmland values have significant implications for both producers as well as bankers financing agricultural loans. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions is an expert opinion survey in which agricultural bankers provide land value forecasts. As the survey has drawn increased attention, the survey has drawn criticism regarding its use qualitative data to forecast land values. Our research examines the value of the survey data with respect to its ability to forecast movement in land values. Three techniques are used in the analysis. Interpreting the aggregate forecasts as probability estimates, Brier’s probability scores are used to evaluate aggregate bankers’ predictions. Next, turning points are evaluated using contingency tables. Finally, Granger causality tests are used to determine the dynamic relationship between land value predictions and actual land value changes reported by bankers. Bankers’ forecasts predict land values for irrigated and ranchland well, but non-irrigated forecasts were only marginally helpful in prediction non-irrigated farmland values. Forecasts provided in the survey may be beneficial, especially considering the scarcity of other publicly available data.farmland, forecasting, land values, Federal Reserve Bank, Agribusiness, Financial Economics,

Comparison of Alternative Sources of Farmland Values

Consistent and reliable data on farmland values is critical to assessing the overall financial health of agricultural producers. However, little is known about the idiosyncrasies and similarities of standard land value data sources – U.S. Department of Agriculture, Federal Reserve Bank land value surveys, and transaction prices. All three data sources are highly correlated, but transaction prices tend to be higher, especially for irrigated cropland and ranchland. USDA land values are reported as representing land values on January first, but instead they more closely represent first and second quarter land values according to a multi-state comparison to changes in quarterly Federal Reserve land values. Given the finding that first quarter Federal Reserve Bank land values lead USDA land values and that they are published before the USDA release, Federal Reserve land values are a timely indicator of agricultural producers’ financial position.Land Economics/Use,

CD4+ T cell surface alpha enolase is lower in older adults

To identify novel cell ageing markers in order to gain insight into ageing mechanisms, we adopted membrane enrichment and comparison of the CD4+ T cell membrane proteome (purified by cell surface labelling using Sulfo-NHS-SS-Biotin reagent) between healthy young (n=9, 20-25y) and older (n=10; 50-70y) male adults. Following two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2DE) to separate pooled membrane proteins in triplicates, the identity of protein spots with age-dependent differences (p1.4 fold difference) was determined using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Seventeen protein spot density differences (ten increased and seven decreased in the older adult group) were observed between young and older adults. From spot intensity analysis, CD4+ T cell surface α-enolase was decreased in expression by 1.5 fold in the older age group; this was verified by flow cytometry (n=22) and qPCR with significantly lower expression of cellular α-enolase mRNA and protein compared to young adult CD4+ T cells (p<0.05). In an independent age-matched case-control study, lower CD4+ T cell surface α-enolase expression was observed in age-matched patients with cardiovascular disease (p<0.05). An immune-modulatory role has been proposed for surface α-enolase and our findings of decreased expression suggest that deficits in surface α-enolase merit investigation in the context of immune dysfunction during ageing and vascular disease

Can the Federal Reserve Bank’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions Forecast Land Values?

The value of land dominates the financial structure of most American agricultural production firms, and land values are an important factor in long-term agricultural planning and risk management. As the primary source of collateral for farm loans, farmland values have significant implications for both producers as well as bankers financing agricultural loans. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions is an expert opinion survey in which agricultural bankers provide land value forecasts. As the survey has drawn increased attention, the survey has drawn criticism regarding its use qualitative data to forecast land values. Our research examines the value of the survey data with respect to its ability to forecast movement in land values. Three techniques are used in the analysis. Interpreting the aggregate forecasts as probability estimates, Brier’s probability scores are used to evaluate aggregate bankers’ predictions. Next, turning points are evaluated using contingency tables. Finally, Granger causality tests are used to determine the dynamic relationship between land value predictions and actual land value changes reported by bankers. Bankers’ forecasts predict land values for irrigated and ranchland well, but non-irrigated forecasts were only marginally helpful in prediction non-irrigated farmland values. Forecasts provided in the survey may be beneficial, especially considering the scarcity of other publicly available data

Comparison of Alternative Sources of Farmland Values

Consistent and reliable data on farmland values is critical to assessing the overall financial health of agricultural producers. However, little is known about the idiosyncrasies and similarities of standard land value data sources – U.S. Department of Agriculture, Federal Reserve Bank land value surveys, and transaction prices. All three data sources are highly correlated, but transaction prices tend to be higher, especially for irrigated cropland and ranchland. USDA land values are reported as representing land values on January first, but instead they more closely represent first and second quarter land values according to a multi-state comparison to changes in quarterly Federal Reserve land values. Given the finding that first quarter Federal Reserve Bank land values lead USDA land values and that they are published before the USDA release, Federal Reserve land values are a timely indicator of agricultural producers’ financial position

Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey

This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers’ qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, selfreported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers’ qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naı¨ve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values