A tectonic-rules-based mantle reference frame since 1 billion years ago – implications for supercontinent cycles and plate–mantle system evolution

Understanding the long-term evolution of Earth's plate–mantle system is reliant on absolute plate motion models in a mantle reference frame, but such models are both difficult to construct and controversial. We present a tectonic-rules-based optimization approach to construct a plate motion model in a mantle reference frame covering the last billion years and use it as a constraint for mantle flow models. Our plate motion model results in net lithospheric rotation consistently below 0.25∘ Myr−1, in agreement with mantle flow models, while trench motions are confined to a relatively narrow range of −2 to +2 cm yr−1 since 320 Ma, during Pangea stability and dispersal. In contrast, the period from 600 to 320 Ma, nicknamed the “zippy tricentenary” here, displays twice the trench motion scatter compared to more recent times, reflecting a predominance of short and highly mobile subduction zones. Our model supports an orthoversion evolution from Rodinia to Pangea with Pangea offset approximately 90∘ eastwards relative to Rodinia – this is the opposite sense of motion compared to a previous orthoversion hypothesis based on paleomagnetic data. In our coupled plate–mantle model a broad network of basal mantle ridges forms between 1000 and 600 Ma, reflecting widely distributed subduction zones. Between 600 and 500 Ma a short-lived degree-2 basal mantle structure forms in response to a band of subduction zones confined to low latitudes, generating extensive antipodal lower mantle upwellings centred at the poles. Subsequently, the northern basal structure migrates southward and evolves into a Pacific-centred upwelling, while the southern structure is dissected by subducting slabs, disintegrating into a network of ridges between 500 and 400 Ma. From 400 to 200 Ma, a stable Pacific-centred degree-1 convective planform emerges. It lacks an antipodal counterpart due to the closure of the Iapetus and Rheic oceans between Laurussia and Gondwana as well as due to coeval subduction between Baltica and Laurentia and around Siberia, populating the mantle with slabs until 320 Ma when Pangea is assembled. A basal degree-2 structure forms subsequent to Pangea breakup, after the influence of previously subducted slabs in the African hemisphere on the lowermost mantle structure has faded away. This succession of mantle states is distinct from previously proposed mantle convection models. We show that the history of plume-related volcanism is consistent with deep plumes associated with evolving basal mantle structures. This Solid Earth Evolution Model for the last 1000 million years (SEEM1000) forms the foundation for a multitude of spatio-temporal data analysis approaches

Proxy evidence for state-dependence of climate sensitivity in the Eocene greenhouse

Despite recent advances, the link between the evolution of atmospheric CO2 and climate during the Eocene greenhouse remains uncertain. In particular, modelling studies suggest that in order to achieve the global warmth that characterised the early Eocene, warmer climates must be more sensitive to CO2 forcing than colder climates. Here, we test this assertion in the geological record by combining a new high-resolution boron isotope-based CO2 record with novel estimates of Global Mean Temperature. We find that Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) was indeed higher during the warmest intervals of the Eocene, agreeing well with recent model simulations, and declined through the Eocene as global climate cooled. These observations indicate that the canonical IPCC range of ECS (1.5 to 4.5 °C per doubling) is unlikely to be appropriate for high-CO2 warm climates of the past, and the state dependency of ECS may play an increasingly important role in determining the state of future climate as the Earth continues to warm

The topographic evolution of the Tibetan Region as revealed by palaeontology

The Tibetan Plateau was built through a succession of Gondwanan terranes colliding with Asia during the Mesozoic. These accretions produced a complex Paleogene topography of several predominantly east–west trending mountain ranges separated by deep valleys. Despite this piecemeal assembly and resultant complex relief, Tibet has traditionally been thought of as a coherent entity rising as one unit. This has led to the widely used phrase ‘the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau’, which is a false concept borne of simplistic modelling and confounds understanding the complex interactions between topography climate and biodiversity. Here, using the rich palaeontological record of the Tibetan region, we review what is known about the past topography of the Tibetan region using a combination of quantitative isotope and fossil palaeoaltimetric proxies, and present a new synthesis of the orography of Tibet throughout the Paleogene. We show why ‘the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau’ never occurred, and quantify a new pattern of topographic and landscape evolution that contributed to the development of today’s extraordinary Asian biodiversity

The Effect of Relisting on House Selling Price

When house sellers reach the end of a listing contract without a sale they are faced with several decisions. A seller who wants to continue to market the property can leave it on the market, relist the property immediately, or take it off the market for a period of time before relisting it. Research has shown that properties with longer time-on-market may carry a stigma and sell for less. In an attempt to mitigate the negative perception of a house that other buyers appear to have passed by, a seller can have the agent relist the property so it appears as a new listing. If a seller decides to relist the property, the owner also has to decide how long to wait before relisting. We use a hedonic approach to investigate the choices sellers have when deciding whether to relist their property and the impact those decisions have on the property’s selling price. We find that relisting a property results in a higher selling price and that to maximize price, the seller should relist the property with the same agent within 30 days

Towards community-driven paleogeographic reconstructions: integrating open-access paleogeographic and paleobiology data with plate tectonics

A variety of paleogeographic reconstructions have been published, with applications ranging from paleoclimate, ocean circulation and faunal radiation models to resource exploration; yet their uncertainties remain difficult to assess as they are generally presented as low-resolution static maps. We present a methodology for ground-truthing the digital Palaeogeographic Atlas of Australia by linking the <i>GPlates</i> plate reconstruction tool to the global Paleobiology Database and a Phanerozoic plate motion model. We develop a spatio-temporal data mining workflow to validate the Phanerozoic Palaeogeographic Atlas of Australia with paleoenvironments derived from fossil data. While there is general agreement between fossil data and the paleogeographic model, the methodology highlights key inconsistencies. The Early Devonian paleogeographic model of southeastern Australia insufficiently describes the Emsian inundation that may be refined using biofacies distributions. Additionally, the paleogeographic model and fossil data can be used to strengthen numerical models, such as the dynamic topography and the associated inundation of eastern Australia during the Cretaceous. Although paleobiology data provide constraints only for paleoenvironments with high preservation potential of organisms, our approach enables the use of additional proxy data to generate improved paleogeographic reconstructions