SCORE performance in Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union: MONICA and HAPIEE results

Aims: The Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) scale assesses 10 year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), based on conventional risk factors. The high-risk SCORE version is recommended for Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU), but its performance has never been systematically assessed in the region. We evaluated SCORE performance in two sets of population-based CEE/FSU cohorts. Methods and results: The cohorts based on the World Health Organization MONitoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease (MONICA) surveys in the Czech Republic, Poland (Warsaw and Tarnobrzeg), Lithuania (Kaunas), and Russia (Novosibirsk) were followed from the mid-1980s. The Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) study follows Czech, Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002–05. In Cox regression analyses, the high-risk SCORE ≥5% at baseline significantly predicted CVD mortality in both MONICA [n = 15 027; hazard ratios (HR), 1.7–6.3] and HAPIEE (n = 20 517; HR, 2.6–10.5) samples. While SCORE calibration was good in most MONICA samples (predicted and observed mortality were close), the risk was underestimated in Russia. In HAPIEE, the high-risk SCORE overpredicted the estimated 10 year mortality for Czech and Polish samples and adequately predicted it for Russia. SCORE discrimination was satisfactory in both MONICA and HAPIEE. Conclusion: The high-risk SCORE underestimated the fatal CVD risk in Russian MONICA but performed well in most MONICA samples and Russian HAPIEE. This SCORE version might overestimate the risk in contemporary Czech and Polish populations

Landau model for uniaxial systems with complex order parameter

We study the Landau model for uniaxial incommensurate-commensurate systems of the I class by keeping Umklapp terms of third and fourth order in the expansion of the free energy. It applies to systems in which the soft mode minimum lies between the corresponding commensurate wave numbers. The minimization of the Landau functional leads to the sine-Gordon equation with two nonlinear terms, equivalent to the equation of motion for the well-known classical mechanical problem of two mixing resonances. We calculate the average free energies for periodic, quasiperiodic and chaotic solutions of this equation, and show that in the regime of finite strengths of Umklapp terms only periodic solutions are absolute minima of the free energy, so that the phase diagram contains only commensurate configurations. The phase transitions between neighboring configurations are of the first order, and the wave number of ordering goes through harmless staircase with a finite number of steps. These results are the basis for the interpretation of phase diagrams for some materials from the I class of incommensurate-commensurate systems, in particular of those for A$_2$BX$_4$ and BCCD compounds. Also, we argue that chaotic barriers which separate metastable periodic solutions represent an intrinsic mechanism for observed memory effects and thermal hystereses.Comment: 12 pages, 14 figures, LaTeX, to be published in Phys. Rev.

Two-neutron and core-excited states in Pb 210: Tracing E3 collectivity and evidence for a new β -decaying isomer in Tl 210

Yrast and near-yrast levels up to an I=17 spin value and a 6-MeV excitation energy have been delineated in the "two-neutron" Pb210 nucleus following deep-inelastic reactions involving Pb208 targets and a number of heavy-ion beams at energies ∼25% above the Coulomb barrier. The level scheme was established on the basis of multifold prompt and delayed coincidence relationships measured with the Gammasphere array. In addition to the previously known states, many new levels were identified. For most of the strongly populated states, spin-parity assignments are proposed on the basis of angular distributions. The reinvestigation of the ν(g9/2)2, 8+ isomeric decay results in the firm identification of the low-energy E2 transitions involved in the 8+→6+→4+ cascade, and in a revised 6+ level half-life of 92(10) ns, nearly a factor of 2 longer than previously measured. Among the newly identified states figure spin I=4-10 levels associated with the νg9/2i11/2 multiplet, as well as yrast states involving νg9/2j15/2, νi11/2j15/2, and ν(j15/2)2 neutron couplings. The highest-spin excitations are understood as 1p-1h core excitations and the yrast population is found to be fragmented to the extent that levels of spin higher than I=17 could not be reached. Four E3 transitions are present in the Pb210 yrast decay; three of these involve the g9/2→j15/2 octupole component, as reflected in the 21(2) and >10 Weisskopf unit enhancements of the B(E3) rates of the first two. The fourth, 16+→13-E3 transition corresponds to the 3- core octupole excitation built on the νi11/2j15/2 state, in analogy to a similar E3 coupling to the νj15/2 level in Pb209. Shell-model calculations performed for two-neutron states and 1p-1h Pb208 core excitations are in good agreement with the data. Evidence was found for the existence of a hitherto unknown high-spin β-decaying isomer in Tl210. Shell-model calculations of the Tl210 levels suggest the possibility of a 11+ long-lived, β-decaying state, and the delayed yields observed in various reactions fit rather well with a Tl210 assignment

In-play sports betting: a scoping study

Technology has changed the nature of gambling practices over the last decade and is continuing to do so. The online sports betting industry has become a rapidly growing sector of the global economy, with online sports betting contributing 37% of the annual online gambling market in Europe. There has been an integration of social and technological processes that has enabled the cultural saliency of contemporary online betting. One of the more newly introduced forms of online sports betting is in-play sports betting behaviour (the betting on events within a sporting event such as football and cricket). In-play sports betting features (such as 'cash out') are increasing in popularity amongst online gambling operators. A scoping study was carried out examining the evolution of this new form of gambling practice which included both a systematic literature review and the examination of 338 online gambling websites that offered sports betting. The present study identified a comprehensive list of what in-play betting features are currently being offered on online gambling websites as well as other information concerning in-play sports betting. A total of 16 academic papers and two 'grey literature' reports and were identified in the systematic review. Out of 338 online gambling websites that were visited, 26% of these offered at least on in-play betting feature. Results from the systematic review suggest that in-play sports betting has the potential to be more harmful than other ways of gambling because of the inherent structural characteristics

Achene slime content in some taxa of Matricaria L. (Asteraceae)

The achenes of Matricaria aurea and two varieties of M. chamomilla (var. chamomilla and var. recutita) have slime cells on the surface and they are characterized by slime envelope formation during hydration. The slime in these taxa is composed of pectins and cellulose. The slime could play important role in the distribution and colonisation of new habitats in Matricaria taxa

In-play sports betting: a scoping study

Technology has changed the nature of gambling practices over the last decade and is continuing to do so. The online sports betting industry has become a rapidly growing sector of the global economy, with online sports betting contributing 37% of the annual online gambling market in Europe. There has been an integration of social and technological processes that has enabled the cultural saliency of contemporary online betting. One of the more newly introduced forms of online sports betting is in-play sports betting behaviour (the betting on events within a sporting event such as football and cricket). In-play sports betting features (such as 'cash out') are increasing in popularity amongst online gambling operators. A scoping study was carried out examining the evolution of this new form of gambling practice which included both a systematic literature review and the examination of 338 online gambling websites that offered sports betting. The present study identified a comprehensive list of what in-play betting features are currently being offered on online gambling websites as well as other information concerning in-play sports betting. A total of 16 academic papers and two 'grey literature' reports and were identified in the systematic review. Out of 338 online gambling websites that were visited, 26% of these offered at least on in-play betting feature. Results from the systematic review suggest that in-play sports betting has the potential to be more harmful than other ways of gambling because of the inherent structural characteristics

Doubly magic Pb 208: High-spin states, isomers, and E3 collectivity in the yrast decay

Yrast and near-yrast levels up to spin values in excess of I=30 have been delineated in the doubly magic Pb208 nucleus following deep-inelastic reactions involving Pb208 targets and, mostly, 430-MeV Ca48 and 1440-MeV Pb208 beams. The level scheme was established up to an excitation energy of 16.4 MeV, based on multifold γ-ray coincidence relationships measured with the Gammasphere array. Below the well-known, 0.5-μs 10+ isomer, ten new transitions were added to earlier work. The delineation of the higher parts of the level sequence benefited from analyses involving a number of prompt- and delayed-coincidence conditions. Three new isomeric states were established along the yrast line with Iπ=20- (10 342 keV), 23+ (11 361 keV), and 28- (13 675 keV), and respective half-lives of 22(3), 12.7(2), and 60(6) ns. Gamma transitions were also identified preceding in time the 28- isomer; however, only a few could be placed in the level scheme and no firm spin-parity quantum numbers could be proposed. In contrast, for most states below this 28- isomer, firm spin-parity values were assigned, based on total electron-conversion coefficients, deduced for low-energy (<500keV) transitions from γ-intensity balances, and on measured γ-ray angular distributions. The latter also enabled the quantitative determination of mixing ratios. The transition probabilities extracted for all isomeric transitions in Pb208 have been reviewed and discussed in terms of the intrinsic structure of the initial and final levels involved. Particular emphasis was placed on the many observed E3 transitions as they often exhibit significant enhancements in strength [of the order of tens of Weisskopf units (W.u.)] comparable to the one seen for the neutron j15/2→g9/2 E3 transition in Pb209. In this context, the enhancement of the 725-keV E3 transition (56 W.u.) associated with the decay of the highest-lying 28- isomer observed in this work remains particularly challenging to explain. Large-scale shell-model calculations were performed with two approaches, a first one where the 1, 2, and 3 particle-hole excitations do not mix with one another, and another more complex one, in which such mixing takes place. The calculated levels were compared with the data and a general agreement is observed for most of the Pb208 level scheme. At the highest spins and energies, however, the correspondence between theory and experiment is less satisfactory and the experimental yrast line appears to be more regular than the calculated one. This regularity is notable when the level energies are plotted versus the I(I+1) product and the observed, nearly linear, behavior was considered within a simple "rotational" interpretation. Within this approximate picture, the extracted moment of inertia suggests that only the 76 valence nucleons participate in the "rotation" and that the Sn132 spherical core remains inert

Association of Southeast Asian Nations, People's Republic of China, and India Growth and the Rest of the World: The Role of Trade

This paper explores the impact of past and future growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)1 Since the mid-1990s, ACI growth has improved the non-oil terms of trade of the developed countries. There have also been strong complementarities between ACI suppliers of intermediate inputs and PRC exports. More developed Asian countries have benefited from PRC capital goods demand. ACI growth has, however, put competitive pressures on other less-developed manufacturing exporters, worsening their terms of trade and constraining their pricing ability. ACI growth has been especially beneficial for oil and minerals commodity producers. On the other hand, net food importers and oil importing countries have been adversely affected by high import costs. , the People's Republic of China (PRC), and India - here referred to as the ACI countries - on aggregate welfare, relative wages, and global emissions in the rest of the world. It outlines several analytical frameworks, considers effects over the past decade and, based on consensus forecasts, the implications of that growth for the rest of the world in the decades to come. Future ACI growth provides opportunities and challenges for the rest of the world. For developed countries the opportunities are for selling high-end services and capital and consumer goods in the ACI markets and enjoying the benefits from intra-industry trade; the challenges will come from increased head-to-head competition in manufactured goods and services that should become more intense in future decades. For medium-income producers currently at between 30% and 60% of US levels, there will be a tougher tradeoff between more intensive competition with the PRC and serving the growing middle classes in ACI countries. For poorer countries, there will greater opportunities for becoming part of global supply chains in manufactured exports. Standard frameworks that assume internal factor mobility suggest continuing pressures for wage inequality in developed countries. But these hinge on the assumption that the ACI and developed countries will continue to produce similar products and that the ACI will specialize in unskilled labor-intensive products. In fact, as their exports become more technology - intensive and developed countries more specialized these pressures could be alleviated. On the one hand, as the "flying geese" process continues, exports from countries with lower incomes than the PRC are likely to displace PRC labor-intensive exports rather than domestic production in developed countries. On the other hand, while it may cause job loss and erode the returns to specific factors, PRC export growth is less likely to be a source of wage inequality in advanced economies

Economic Integration and Welfare: Manufacturing vs. Agricultural Markets

In the literature of new trade theory, most papers study the industrial location by imposing the assumption of free transportation in the agricultural sector. This paper explicitly incorporates arbitrary transport costs in both the manufacturing and the agricultural sectors into the Helpman-Krugman-Davis model of two countries and one production factor. The following results are obtained. First, we find a necessary and sufficient condition for the home market effect (HME) to be observed. Secondly, we find that integrating manufacturing markets has contrastive impacts on two countries to integrating agricultural markets. Our results are suggestive for the understanding of various international trade agreements