Climate Change and the Global Pattern of Moraine-Dammed Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century

Emerging Genotype (GGIIb) of Norovirus in Drinking Water, Sweden

From May through June 2001, an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis that affected at least 200 persons occurred in a combined activity camp and conference center in Stockholm County. The source of illness was contaminated drinking water obtained from private wells. The outbreak appears to have started with sewage pipeline problems near the kitchen, which caused overflow of the sewage system and contaminated the environment. While no pathogenic bacteria were found in water or stools specimens, norovirus was detected in 8 of 11 stool specimens and 2 of 3 water samples by polymerase chain reaction. Nucleotide sequencing of amplicons from two patients and two water samples identified an emerging genotype designated GGIIb, which was circulating throughout several European countries during 2000 and 2001. This investigation documents the first waterborne outbreak of viral gastroenteritis in Sweden, where nucleotide sequencing showed a direct link between contaminated water and illness

Increasing risks related to landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating mountain ranges

While glacier volumes inmost coldmountain ranges rapidly decrease due to continued global warming, degradation of permafrost at altitudes above and below glaciers is much slower. As a consequence,many still existing glacier and permafrost landscapes probably transformwithin decades into new landscapes of bare bedrock, loose debris, sparse vegetation, numerous new lakes and steep slopes with slowly degrading permafrost. These new landscapes are likely to persist for centuries if not millennia to come. During variable but mostly extended future time periods, such new landscapes will be characterized by pronounced disequilibria within their geo- and ecosystems. This especially involves long-term stability reduction of steep/icy mountain slopes as a slow and delayed reaction to stress redistribution following de-buttressing by vanishing glaciers and to changes in mechanical strength and hydraulic permeability caused by permafrost degradation. Thereby, the probability of far-reaching floodwaves fromlargemassmovements into lakes systematically increases with the formation of many new lakes and systems of lakes in close neighborhood to, or even directly at the foot of, so-affected slopes. Results of recent studies in the Swiss Alps are reviewed and complemented with examples from the Cordillera Blanca in Peru and the Mount Everest region in Nepal. Hot spots of future hazards frompotential flood waves caused by large rock falls into new lakes can already now be recognized. To this end, integrated spatial information on glacier/permafrost evolution and lake formation can be used together with scenario-based models for rapid mass movements, impact waves and flood propagation. The resulting information must then be combined with exposure and vulnerability considerations related to settlements and infrastructure. This enables timely planning of risk reduction options. Such risk reduction options consist of two components: Mitigation of hazards, which in the present context are due to effects from climate change, and reduction in consequences, which result from societal conditions and changes. Hazard mitigation may include artificial lake drainage or lake-level lowering and flood retention, optimally in connection with multipurpose structures for hydropower production and/or irrigation. Reduction in damage potential (exposure, vulnerability) can be accomplished by installing early-warning systems, adapting spatial planning and/or by improving preparedness of local people and institutions

Ice-avalanche scenario elaboration and uncertainty propagation in numerical simulation of rock-/ice-avalanche-induced impact waves at Mount Hualcán and Lake 513, Peru

The interest in numerical simulation of cascading processes involving mass movements and lakes has recently risen strongly, especially as the formation of new lakes in high-mountain areas as a consequence of glacier recession can be observed all over the world. These lakes are often located close to potentially unstable slopes and therewith prone to impacts from mass movements, which may cause the lake to burst out and endanger settlements further downvalley. The need for hazard assessment of such cascading processes is continuously rising, which demands methodological development of coupled numerical simulations. Our study takes up on the need for systematic analysis of the effect of assumptions taken in the simulation of the process chain and the propagation of the corresponding uncertainties on the simulation results. We complemented the research of Adv Geosci 35:145-155, 2014 carried out at Lake 513 in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, by focusing on the aspects of (a) ice-avalanche scenario development and of (b) analysis of uncertainty propagation in the coupled numerical simulation of the process chain of an impact wave triggered by a rock/ice avalanche. The analysis of variance of the dimension of the overtopping wave was based on 54 coupled simulation runs, applying RAMMS and IBER for simulation of the ice avalanche and the impact wave, respectively. The results indicate (a) location and magnitude of potential ice-avalanche events, and further showed (b) that the momentum transfer between an avalanche and the impact wave seems to be reliably representable in coupled numerical simulations. The assessed parameters—initial avalanche volume, friction calibration, mass entrainment and transformation of the data between the models—was decisive of whether the wave overtopped or not. The overtopping time and height directly characterize the overtopping wave, while the overtopping volume and the discharge describe the overtopping hydrograph as a consequence of the run-up rather than the wave. The largest uncertainties inherent in the simulation of the impact wave emerge from avalanche-scenario definition rather than from coupling of the models. These findings are of relevance also to subsequent outburst flow simulation and contribute to advance numerical simulation of the entire process chain, which might also be applied to mass movements other than rock/ice avalanches

N-Acetylglucosamine Utilization by Saccharomyces cerevisiae Based on Expression of Candida albicans NAG Genes ▿

Synthesis of chitin de novo from glucose involves a linear pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Several of the pathway genes, including GNA1, are essential. Genes for chitin catabolism are absent in S. cerevisiae. Therefore, S. cerevisiae cannot use chitin as a carbon source. Chitin is the second most abundant polysaccharide after cellulose and consists of N-acetylglucosamine (GlcNAc) moieties. Here, we have generated S. cerevisiae strains that are able to use GlcNAc as a carbon source by expressing four Candida albicans genes (NAG3 or its NAG4 paralog, NAG5, NAG2, and NAG1) encoding a GlcNAc permease, a GlcNAc kinase, a GlcNAc-6-phosphate deacetylase, and a glucosamine-6-phosphate deaminase, respectively. Expression of NAG3 and NAG5 or NAG4 and NAG5 in S. cerevisiae resulted in strains in which the otherwise-essential ScGNA1 could be deleted. These strains required the presence of GlcNAc in the medium, indicating that uptake of GlcNAc and its phosphorylation were achieved. Expression of all four NAG genes produced strains that could use GlcNAc as the sole carbon source for growth. Utilization of a GlcNAc catabolic pathway for bioethanol production using these strains was tested. However, fermentation was slow and yielded only minor amounts of ethanol (approximately 3.0 g/liter), suggesting that fructose-6-phosphate produced from GlcNAc under these conditions is largely consumed to maintain cellular functions and promote growth. Our results present the first step toward tapping a novel, renewable carbon source for biofuel production