Unpacking Large Language Models with Conceptual Consistency

If a Large Language Model (LLM) answers "yes" to the question "Are mountains tall?" then does it know what a mountain is? Can you rely on it responding correctly or incorrectly to other questions about mountains? The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) indicates they are increasingly able to answer queries like these accurately, but that ability does not necessarily imply a general understanding of concepts relevant to the anchor query. We propose conceptual consistency to measure a LLM's understanding of relevant concepts. This novel metric measures how well a model can be characterized by finding out how consistent its responses to queries about conceptually relevant background knowledge are. To compute it we extract background knowledge by traversing paths between concepts in a knowledge base and then try to predict the model's response to the anchor query from the background knowledge. We investigate the performance of current LLMs in a commonsense reasoning setting using the CSQA dataset and the ConceptNet knowledge base. While conceptual consistency, like other metrics, does increase with the scale of the LLM used, we find that popular models do not necessarily have high conceptual consistency. Our analysis also shows significant variation in conceptual consistency across different kinds of relations, concepts, and prompts. This serves as a step toward building models that humans can apply a theory of mind to, and thus interact with intuitively

Confidence Calibration for Systems with Cascaded Predictive Modules

Existing conformal prediction algorithms estimate prediction intervals at target confidence levels to characterize the performance of a regression model on new test samples. However, considering an autonomous system consisting of multiple modules, prediction intervals constructed for individual modules fall short of accommodating uncertainty propagation over different modules and thus cannot provide reliable predictions on system behavior. We address this limitation and present novel solutions based on conformal prediction to provide prediction intervals calibrated for a predictive system consisting of cascaded modules (e.g., an upstream feature extraction module and a downstream regression module). Our key idea is to leverage module-level validation data to characterize the system-level error distribution without direct access to end-to-end validation data. We provide theoretical justification and empirical experimental results to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed solutions. In comparison to prediction intervals calibrated for individual modules, our solutions generate improved intervals with more accurate performance guarantees for system predictions, which are demonstrated on both synthetic systems and real-world systems performing overlap prediction for indoor navigation using the Matterport3D dataset