Sex-specific relevance of diabetes to occlusive vascular and other mortality: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual data from 980793 adults from 68 prospective studies

Background Several studies have shown that diabetes confers a higher relative risk of vascular mortality among women than among men, but whether this increased relative risk in women exists across age groups and within defined levels of other risk factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether differences in established risk factors, such as blood pressure, BMI, smoking, and cholesterol, explain the higher relative risks of vascular mortality among women than among men. Methods In our meta-analysis, we obtained individual participant-level data from studies included in the Prospective Studies Collaboration and the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration that had obtained baseline information on age, sex, diabetes, total cholesterol, blood pressure, tobacco use, height, and weight. Data on causes of death were obtained from medical death certificates. We used Cox regression models to assess the relevance of diabetes (any type) to occlusive vascular mortality (ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, or other atherosclerotic deaths) by age, sex, and other major vascular risk factors, and to assess whether the associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and body-mass index (BMI) to occlusive vascular mortality are modified by diabetes. Results Individual participant-level data were analysed from 980 793 adults. During 9·8 million person-years of follow-up, among participants aged between 35 and 89 years, 19 686 (25·6%) of 76 965 deaths were attributed to occlusive vascular disease. After controlling for major vascular risk factors, diabetes roughly doubled occlusive vascular mortality risk among men (death rate ratio [RR] 2·10, 95% CI 1·97–2·24) and tripled risk among women (3·00, 2·71–3·33; χ2 test for heterogeneity p<0·0001). For both sexes combined, the occlusive vascular death RRs were higher in younger individuals (aged 35–59 years: 2·60, 2·30–2·94) than in older individuals (aged 70–89 years: 2·01, 1·85–2·19; p=0·0001 for trend across age groups), and, across age groups, the death RRs were higher among women than among men. Therefore, women aged 35–59 years had the highest death RR across all age and sex groups (5·55, 4·15–7·44). However, since underlying confounder-adjusted occlusive vascular mortality rates at any age were higher in men than in women, the adjusted absolute excess occlusive vascular mortality associated with diabetes was similar for men and women. At ages 35–59 years, the excess absolute risk was 0·05% (95% CI 0·03–0·07) per year in women compared with 0·08% (0·05–0·10) per year in men; the corresponding excess at ages 70–89 years was 1·08% (0·84–1·32) per year in women and 0·91% (0·77–1·05) per year in men. Total cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI each showed continuous log-linear associations with occlusive vascular mortality that were similar among individuals with and without diabetes across both sexes. Interpretation Independent of other major vascular risk factors, diabetes substantially increased vascular risk in both men and women. Lifestyle changes to reduce smoking and obesity and use of cost-effective drugs that target major vascular risks (eg, statins and antihypertensive drugs) are important in both men and women with diabetes, but might not reduce the relative excess risk of occlusive vascular disease in women with diabetes, which remains unexplained. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union BIOMED programme, and National Institute on Aging (US National Institutes of Health)

Cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, and stroke: 13,000 strokes in 450,000 people in 45 prospective cohorts. Prospective studies collaboration.

Individual studies of stroke have not clearly answered two questions: on the relation, if any, between total blood cholesterol and stroke; and on how the strength of the relation between diastolic blood pressure and stroke varies with age. The associations of blood cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure with subsequent stroke rates were investigated by review of 45 prospective observational cohorts involving 450,000 individuals with 5-30 years of follow-up (mean 16 years, total 7.3 million person-years of observation), during which 13,397 participants were recorded as having had a stroke. Most of these were fatal strokes in studies that recorded only mortality and not incidence, but about one-quarter were from studies that recorded both fatal and non-fatal strokes. After standardization for age, there was no association between blood cholesterol and stroke except, perhaps, in those under 45 years of age when screened. This lack of association was not influenced by adjustment for sex, diastolic blood pressure, history of coronary disease, or ethnicity (Asian or non-Asian). However, because the types of the strokes were not centrally available, the lack of any overall relation might conceal a positive association with ischaemic stroke together with a negative association with haemorrhagic stroke. When the highest and the lowest of the six blood pressure categories were compared, the difference in usual diastolic blood pressure was 27 mm Hg (102 vs 75 mm Hg), and there was a fivefold difference in stroke risk. This fivefold difference was seen both in those with a pre-existing history of coronary heart disease and in those without it. The proportional difference in stroke risk, however, was more extreme in middle than in old age. Among those aged &lt; 45, 45-64, and 65+ when screened, the differences in the relative risks of stroke (between the highest diastolic blood pressure category and a combination of the lowest two categories) were tenfold, fivefold, and twofold, respectively. However, because the absolute stroke risks are greater in old age, the absolute differences in the annual stroke rates showed an opposite pattern, being 2, 5, and 8 per thousand, respectively. This suggests that the effects of therapeutic blood pressure reductions should be assessed separately in middle age and in old age

Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies

Prospective Studies Collaboration: Gary Whitlock,...K. Jamrozik,..