Public expenditure and productivity puzzle: The case of Northern Cyprus

Since 1974, Northern Cyprus has experienced very low productivity and very slow economic growth, which has further been declining in recent years. In searching for the causes of this poor economic performance emphasis is placed on the lack of investment in infrastructure and education. The present study intends to investigate the hypothesis that “the poor economic performance of Northern Cyprus is due to low levels of investment in infrastructure and education”. In establishing the relationship between output and publicly provided inputs, we specify various Cobb-Douglas production functions by using aggregated and disaggregated time series data on public capital for the period of 1977-1998. Also, recently developed econometric techniques, such as cointegration and the error correction mechanism are used to test the validity of the data. Results indicate that both the long run and short run elasticities of GNP with respect to infrastructure and human capitals are very low and in most cases statistically insignificant. This implies that Northern Cyprus’s poor economic performance in the past is not due to low investments in infrastructure and education, and that further investments in these sectors would not perform a miracle for the economy.Publisher's Versio

Modeling natural gas consumption, capital formation, globalization, CO2 emissions and economic growth nexus in Malaysia : Fresh evidence from combined cointegration and causality analysis

publishedVersio

Development strategies for small island states : the role of tourism - Volume 1

The thesis consists of two new paradigms: Porter's (1990) Determinates of National Advantage Theory, and Krugman's (1992) Location and Trade Theory. The main objective in this thesis is to focus on the development strategies for the small island states through the role of tourism. Bulter's (1980) Tourist Area Life Cycle is implemented on the Isle of Man and North Cyprus as a descriptive study.;We modified Witt and Martin's (1987) econometric model and applied on tourism demand analysis for six destination countries (Malta, the Isle of Man, North Cyprus, Turkey, Austria and the UK). The number of tourist arrivals in per capita form are estimated in this thesis. The explanatory variables such as, income, cost of living, exchange rates, air fares and surface travel costs are included in a model for estimation. We also included dummies, trend and habit persistence variables in our estimation analysis. We used cointegration analysis to see the long-run economic relationship on the number of tourist arrivals.;Forecasting tourism demand has also been studied in this thesis and we used RMSE to decide the best forecasting method for 5, 2 and 1 year ahead forecast horizon. HW was found the best forecast method and Econometric forecast did not perform well due to several reasons.;Finally, the aims and hypothesis are explained and related policy implications are developed

The construction boom and environmental protection in Northern Cyprus as a consequence of the Annan Plan

The Annan peace plan has led to a major construction boom in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), in large part driven by speculative demand for real estate. A macroeconomic framework has been used to analyse the principal causes and impacts of the construction sector on the TRNC economy, particularly in terms of income and employment. Given that the TRNC possesses a unique and rare ecosystem in the Eastern Mediterranean, special attention is given to environmental impacts of the current construction boom, highlighting environmental costs and deficiencies in land zoning regulations. Environmental pollution as a result of rapid construction and unplanned urbanisation are also discussed and there is urgent need for rigorous environmental legislation, especially at local government level.Annan Plan, construction boom, economy, environmental ethics,

Economic risk linkages between Israel and middle east countries

This study analyses the economic risk relationship between seven of the top economies in the Middle East and Israel. Our findings are of great interest and likely to begin a new debate in the Middle East region. The results of a block exogeneity Wald test reveal that economic stability in Israel does Granger-cause economic stability in Lebanon, Oman, Qatar and the UAE. Reverse causality has been validated for Lebanon and Bahrain only. We also find that there is a positive impact on Israel’s economic stability over the stability of Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE with different seasonal patterns. In the reverse direction, in response to a shock to Israel’s economic stability, the stability of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Kuwait are also found to be positive and significant with different seasonal frequencies

Explosive construction in a micro‐state: environmental limit and the Bon curve: evidence from North Cyprus

The dynamo role of the construction sector in North Cyprus is documented on the basis of an empirical estimation of backward and forward linkages during the period 1998 to 2005. This was a period when the North Cyprus economy experienced an economic boom in the aftermath of the UN Peace Plan known as the Annan Plan for settling the Cyprus problem. The latest input–output table for the North Cyprus economy is 1998 and we had to derive backward and forward linkages for 2005 from a detailed breakdown of inter‐industry transactions per unit of construction output using the most significant purchases and deliveries, normalizing these transactions for comparability between 2005 and 1998. The results reflect radically different pattern of inter‐industry transactions in 2005 compared to 1998. This work also has general interest in highlighting the possibility of a modified Bon curve for micro‐states, such as North Cyprus, in which environmental constraints may be encountered earlier implying an inverted V‐shaped Bon curve in place of an inverted U‐shape.Developing countries, backward linkages, Bon‐curve, environmental impacts,

Diversifying European energy: Challenges of securing supply

A strategic aim of the European Union’s energy policy is to achieve long-term security of supply. The key for such supply security is long-term agreement achieved in solidarity with partners, particularly new partners who are able to promote both security and diversification of supply

Turkey–EU: Energy partners or enemies forever?

Relations between Turkey and the EU (at the time of writing in Spring, 2017) are anything but cordial

Introduction

This book highlights the importance of Turkey in diversifying supplies in future European energy security, focusing in particular on the rapidly emerging southern energy corridor. Turkey, by its location, occupies a key position in this corridor, fed by hydrocarbon supplies from the Russian, Caspian, East Mediterranean and Middle East sources. The book examines Turkey's role as a transit country (in addition to its own growing domestic energy market) and it utilizes the latest evidence on the geopolitics of various pipelines which convergence on Turkey. The evidence, including maps, strongly favor Turkey as an energy hub within a regional energy model driven by rational behavior and market forces. The book recommends an increasing strategic energy cooperation between the EU and Turkey to maximize mutual interest