Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability

Empirical studies have suggested that stock returns can be predicted by ï¬nancial variables such as the dividend-price ratio. However, these studies typically ignore the high persistence of predictor variables, which can make ï¬rst-order asymptotics a poor approximation in ï¬nite samples. Using a more accurate asymptotic approximation, we propose two methods to deal with the persistence problem. First, we develop a pretest that determines when the conventional t-test for predictability is misleading. Second, we develop a new test of predictability that results in correct inference regardless of the degree of persistence and is efficient compared to existing methods. Applying our methods to US data, we ï¬nd that the dividend-price ratio and the smoothed earningsprice ratio are sufficiently persistent for conventional inference to be highly misleading. However, we ï¬nd some evidence for predictability using our test, particularly with the earnings-price ratio. We also ï¬nd evidence for predictability with the short-term interest rate and the long-short yield spread, for which the conventional t-test leads to correct inference.

Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability

Conventional tests of the predictability of stock returns could be invalid, that is reject the null too frequently, when the predictor variable is persistent and its innovations are highly correlated with returns. We develop a pretest to determine whether the conventional t-test leads to invalid inference and an efficient test of predictability that corrects this problem. Although the conventional t-test is invalid for the dividend-price and smoothed earnings-price ratios, our test finds evidence for predictability. We also find evidence for predictability with the short rate and the long-short yield spread, for which the conventional t-test leads to valid inference.

Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability

Conventional tests of the predictability of stock returns could be invalid, that is reject the null too frequently, when the predictor variable is persistent and its innovations are highly correlated with returns. We develop a pretest to determine whether the conventional t-test leads to invalid inference and an efficient test of predictability that corrects this problem. Although the conventional t-test is invalid for the dividend–price and smoothed earnings–price ratios, our test finds evidence for predictability. We also find evidence for predictability with the short rate and the long-short yield spread, for which the conventional t-test leads to valid inference

Pendapatan Orang Tua terhadap Prestasi Akademik Mahasiswa Sastra Arab Universitas Al-Azhar Indonesia

Si - Penelitian ini secara umum bertujuan memperoleh fakta empiris tentang pendapatan keluarga dan kaitannya dengan prestasi akademik mahasiswa, khususnya pada mahasiswa sastra Arab UAI. Prestasi akademik merujuk pada indeks prestasi kumulatif per semester atau pertahun. Secara teoritis prestasi akademik dipandang sebagai output dari koleksi investasi dalam pendidikan. Namun, Meskipun prestasi akademik siswa dianggap sebagai output langsung dari input alokasi investasi dalam pendidikan yang diusahakan oleh orang tua, tingkat keberhasilannya dianggap bergantung pada sejumlah faktor eksogen yang melekat pada siswa, keluarga, atau sekolah. Faktor-faktor eksogen ini antara lain adalah kumpulan karakteristik anak atau siswa, seperti jenis kelamin, usia dan kemampuan bawaan. Dengan menggunakan analisa deskriptif dan analisa inference, diperoleh hasil penelitian yang menyatakan bahwa prestasi akademik mahasiswa menurut kelompok pendapatan orang tua, tidak bisa terlihat secara nyata, pada masing-masing tahun masuk atau angkatan di UAI. Hal yang sama juga ditemukan pada analisa perbedaan prestasi akademik mahasiswa menurut kelompok pendapatan orang tua, pada masing-masing kelompok jenis kelamin, status beasiswa, dan pendidikan terakhir sebelum memasuki UAI. Ini menunjukkan bahwa karakteristik siswa belum cukup kuat untuk mendukung kita membedakan perbedaan prestasi akademik mahasiswa berdasarkan pendapatan orang tua mereka

Komunikasi Interpersonal Pengacara dengan Kliennya dalam Perkara Tindak Pidana Korupsi di Ramadhan dan Rajul Law Firm Pekanbaru

When someone was involved in corruption cases, then that person need a lawyer who can help to solve the problem. To resolve the case is necessary for good interpersonal communication that is conducted by lawyers to their clients. This study was conducted to determine how the openness, emphaty, possitiveness, supportiveness, and equality of the lawyers to their clients in resolving cases of corruption.This study used qualitative research methods and conducted with social penetration theory. A total of informants in this research are 4 people, 2 of them are lawyers and the 2 are clients. are a lawyers and they clients. Data collection is done by interview, observation, and documentation.The resuts of this study indicate that the attitude of openness is lawyers want to listen to their clients, emphaty that lawyers understand the state of their clients, possitiveness that lawyers spoke with a smile and friendly, supportiveness that lawyers help clients make a defense attorney, and equality that lawyers makes a family atmospher conducted a lawyers to their clients in the corruption case.Keyword : Lawyer,interpersonal communication, Client, corruptio

Goods and Aplikasi Pencatatan Stock Penjualan Untuk Toko Grosir Dengan Menggunakan Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0

In scientific writing, the writer explains the design stock listing application for the sale of goods and grocery stores with using Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0. in this application program consist of 11 form. And use the program to connect to a database object data access. As well as using Microsoft Access 2003 for database

Registry Application of Goods and Stock Sales in Wholesale Stores Using the Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0

In this scientific writing authors describe the design of the recording applicationprograms and the sale of stock of goods to grocery stores using Microsoft VisualBasic 6.0. In this application program consists of 11 Form. And use the Data AccessObject program to connect to the database. And using Microsoft Access 2003 for itsdatabase