Performance of AquaCrop Model in Simulating Tuber Yield of Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) under Various Water Availability Conditions in Mekelle Area, Northern Ethiopia

Potato is sensitive to high temperature and moisture deficits which could be one of the major reason for low potato production in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to validate and apply AquaCrop model for devising better water management strategies for optimal potato production in the region based on experimental data conducted at Mekelle areas (Mekelle University (MU) and Mekelle Agricultural Research Center (MARC)) during the cropping season in 2012; There were three treatments of water: Full Supplementary (FSI), Deficit Irrigation (DI) and Rainfed (RF) laid out in RCBD with three replications. AquaCrop model was calibrated and validated to simulate the observed WUE, growth and yield of potato. Results of the statistical parameters showed that AquaCrop model was able to accurately simulate the final dry tuber yield (E=0.96 and NRMSE=3.49%), water use efficiency (E=0.33 and NRMSE=13.8%), and total biomass (E=0.72 and NRMSE=7%) at MU site. Similarly, the model was able to simulate final tuber yield (E=0.84 and NRMSE=8%) and WUE(E=0.49 and NRMSE=1.58%) at MARC. Whereas, biomass yield was not accurately simulated by the model (E=-1.81 and NRMSE=27.1%) for MARC site. Thus, AquaCrop model could be used for planning and predicting irrigation management purposes. Key words: AquaCrop model, Calibration, Validation, Simulatio

Automated Generation and Visualization of Initial Construction Schedules from Building Information Models

Recent advances in digital technology have had a significant influence on the quality and speed of sharing and communicating project information in the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry. The process of acquiring the design intent in order to develop and communicate project schedules, as critical components of project delivery, have similarly been benefitting from such progress. With the relatively recent techniques of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and its capability to integrate the facility design with its construction schedule, meaningul strides have been made in improving the information flow and eventually visualizing the final schedule in 4D. However, the need for faster and more efficient ways of generating both the schedule and its 4D visualization has been growing as it directly impacts the overhead cost, and hence the bottomline, of projects. Lack of direct integration and logical interoperability between the various computer systems used for these processes deprives the industry of the power of synergy that could have resulted from such explicit assimilation of the product and process models and their respective sub-processes. This research develops an approach that interprets 3D building information models into a source of direct input information to generate initial construction schedules for commercial building projects, which ultimately leads to automated visualization of the produced schedule in 4D BIM. By integrating an intermediate product model and generically predefined activities at domains level, it generates initial activities that capture the scope of the work in the design. The method also incorporates semi-automated sequencing algorithms that take into account the logic of support in structural construction and other factors related to work access and user preferences. The methodology has been implemented in a computer application built to substantiate its feasibility and then evaluated with the help of volunteer professionals in the industry by using test cases. The implementation and the tests conducted demonstrated that the developed methodology is feasible and can be considered as a step forward towards complete automation in the industry, while there are still various aspects open for improvement

Inter-regional child mortality, programme efficiency, and throughput: an evaluation of the Ethiopian health extension programme.

Doctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg.Background: Despite the remarkable improvement Ethiopia had made in the overall health outcomes, such as reducing under-five child mortality rate, there were substantial variations in the rate of progress across its administrative regions over different periods of time. Moreover, compared to many other developing countries, the progress that Ethiopia made in child mortality reduction remained low, and accounted for three percent of the share of global under-five child deaths in 2015. While the community-based health extension programme contributed to improving health outcomes of the population, such as reducing child mortality, access to and use of basic healthcare services are limited, with significant variations across regions of the country. Much less is known about the factors affecting the inter-regional variations in under-five child mortality: how efficient the health extension programme is in delivering basic healthcare services to its rural societies across regions and the determinant factors affecting the health extension programme beneficiary households' graduation in rural settings of Ethiopia. This study is therefore the first attempt to explore determinants of inter-regional differentials in under-five child mortality, and to evaluate the efficiency and productivity changes of the community-based health extension programme in rural areas of Ethiopia at the national level. This study addresses three specific objectives. These are: i) to examine the determinant factors affecting the inter-regional differentials in under-five child mortality. ii) to evaluate the efficiency and productivity growth (changes) of the community-based health extension programme. iii) to identify the determinant factors influencing the health extension programme beneficiary households' graduation. Methodology: This study employed cross-sectional secondary data from the Ethiopian demographic and health survey, 2016, for a total of 4,200 deaths of under-five children. It also utilised data from the regional health bureaus of Ethiopia, constituting a sample of 1,552 health posts and 4,244 rural households for the years 2013 and 2014. The statistical methods employed include the extended Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to count data model, Data Envelopment Analysis, Tobit, ordinary least square, and the multiple logistic regressions. Results: The main findings, which addressed the first objective of the study, revealed that the regional differentials in under-five child mortality were due to socio-economic factors (such as mother's age at first birth, antenatal healthcare services, parental education, households' wealth status, and household size), proximate factors (such as child's birth spacing, child's birth order, and size of the child at birth), and environmental factors (such as place of delivery). However, their relative contributions in explaining the regional differences varied significantly within and across groups in the regional comparisons. The main findings, which addressed the second objective of the study, indicated that there was a substantial variation in technical and scale efficiency estimates among health posts, both across the regions and over periods of time. The results indicated that about 5.67 percent of health posts were a variable return to scale (VRS) technical efficient, with an average technical efficiency estimate of 79.6 percent in 2014. Moreover, most of the health posts (91.24 percent) were operating below their optimal scale size, indicating a potential for improving the efficiency of the health extension programme by improving the scale size, the efficiency of the scale as well as technically inefficient health posts. Furthermore, the overall productivity change increased by about 6.7 percent due to the technological progress. In a subsequent study, results of the regression analysis indicated that households' travel distance to the nearest health posts, provision of supportive supervision to the health extension workers, religion, and region of residence of the health extension workers affected the disparities in technical efficiency estimates among the health posts. The main findings addressing the third objective of the study explained the reason behind the rate of graduating households as model households. The results indicated that family size, head of the household head, parental level of education, households' access to the agricultural extension programme, mothers' age, and the professional level of the health extension workers were the major determinant factors affecting the health extension programme beneficiary households' graduation. Conclusion: The explained part of the regional differentials in under-five child mortality was due to differences in socio-economic, proximate, and environmental factors among the regions, with significant differences in the magnitude of the effect. Most of the health posts were operating below their optimal scale size, with substantial variations in technical and scale efficiency estimates, suggesting potential room for improving the efficiency of the health extension programme. Therefore, this study suggests the need for sustained efforts with a due focus on improving households' economic status, maternal education, sustained in-service training and supportive supervision provision to the health extension workers across regions of the country

Variation and association analyses on morphological characters of linseed (Linum usitatissimum L.) in Ethiopia

Morphological studies of linseed (Linum usitatissimum L.) of Ethiopia were undertaken in this study on 56 accessions collected from 10 administrative regions (former regions) classified into seven altitude classes. The seeds were planted during 2001 growing season in Bale-Goro wereda using randomized complete block design (RCBD) on three replications with the aim of investigating the morphological diversity in the accessions. Over the entire accession, except seed number per boll, all the characters showed significant variation. However, regional groups of linseed accessions showed insignificant variations only for secondary branches number per plant (SBP), days to flowering (DTF) and days to maturity (DTM) among themselves, and altitudinal groups of linseed accessions only for seed number per boll (SNB) and days to flowering (DTF). The analysis for coefficient of variation and cluster analysis showed that accessions from Gojam and Tigray were less diversified. About 53% of the total associations showed significant correlation and out of this 71% of the correlations were with the positive significant correlation coefficients. Cluster analysis indicates that accessions collected from the two extremes of altitude classes have variations for the studied traits. It is only Tigray Region that did not contribute member accession to cluster III, whereas Gondar and Bale regions contribute member accessions to 80% of clusters. Factor analysis showed that of the total variation (73.86%) 30.04% and 27.29% were accounted for by first and second principal components, respectively. The highest Shannon diversity index (0.322 ± 0.039) was recorded for boll size and Shannon diversity index for overall pooled mean was 0.223 ± 0.063.Keywords: cluster/factor analysis, diversity index, linseed accessions, morphological characters, variation/association SINET: Ethiopian Journal of Science Vol. 28(2) 2005: 129-14

Displacement and adjustment : Ethiopian environmental migrants in Durban, South Africa.

M.A. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 2014.Notwithstanding earlier scholarly and scientific disagreements, in the 21st century the evidence for climate-induced environmental change is compelling, with little room for doubt, debate or dissent. There are serious negative consequences for water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity and coastal zones. In addition to the devastating environmental consequences, there is also reasonable consensus about the devastating human impacts, especially in terms of population displacement or environmental refugees. The aim of this study is to investigate the displacement and resettlement of Ethiopian environmental migrants in Durban. More specifically, it examines how environmental changes influenced the decision to move and explores the challenges migrants faced while they were crossing borders of different countries. The study also assesses the socio-economic challenges and the survival strategies adopted by environmental refugees in Durban. This study also evaluates the role of refugee agencies in the resettlement and adjustment of migrants. Ethiopia, as a developing country, more than 80 percent of its economy is based on agriculture. However, the country’s vulnerability to environmental events such as drought, land degradation, deforestations, unsustainable agricultural and food security is very high. As a result, almost all surveyed respondents in this study reported that environmentally-induced migration was common in their areas in Ethiopia. Most of the respondents were from rural and semi-urban areas and they were engaged in farming related activities. Legal outmigration of environmental migrants from Ethiopia was very limited. The majority of respondents were forced to leave Ethiopia in a desperate bid to seek alternate survival strategies. Hence, their entire journey from Ethiopia to South Africa was risky and perilous. They were also emotionally intimidated, physically abused and exploited by migrant smugglers. In addition to the participation of non-governmental refugee organisations who provide legal aid and socio-economic assistance to vulnerable foreign migrants, the South African justice system, in theory, promotes the equality of foreign migrants before the law. However, due to the delays and mishandling of the case dockets and appeals, the majority of environmental migrants expressed their discontent and dissatisfaction with government and non-governmental agencies. Police harassment and abuse of foreign migrants was high. The findings also revealed that some Department of Home Affair officials were corrupt and unfriendly. A major concern is the international response, or perhaps, more appropriately, the lack thereof, to the challenges facing environmental refugees. A key contention of this thesis is that 60 years since its initial promulgation, the 1951 Convention should be revised to include environmental refugees

Registration of Tagasaste (Chamaecytisus palmensis) Variety "Lattuu" for the Highland Areas of Ethiopia

አህፅሮት ከዚህ በፊት የተለቀቀውን ዝርያ (MoA) ጨምሮ አስራ አምስት የታጋሳስቴ ዝርያዎች ያላቸው የመኖ ምርት፣ የመኖ ጥራት፣ በሽታን የመቋቋምና ሌሎች ከምርታማነት ጋር የተያያዙ ባህሪያትን ለመገምገም የምርምር ስራው በሆለታና በጀልዱ የምርምር ጣቢያዎች ላይ ለአራት ዓመታት (2008-2011 እኤአ) ተካሄዶ ነበር፡፡ ከእነዚህ ዝርያዎች ውስጥ ሶስት የተሻሉ ዝርያዎች ( CI-15052፣ CI-17497፣ እና CI-15039) ተመርጠው በሆለታ፣ በቁሉምሣና በጀልዱ የምርምር ጣቢያዎች ላይ እኤአ በ 2017 የማረጋገጫ ጥናት ተካሂዷል፡፡ ለቱ (CI-15052) ተብሎ የተለቀቀው አዲሱ የታጋሳስቴ ዝርያ ከፍተኛ የሆነ የሚበላ የመኖ ምርት (7.46 ቶን በሄክታር) ሲሰጥ CI-15039 የተባለው የታጋሳስቴ ዝርያ ደግሞ ዝቅተኛ (3.60 ቶን በሄክታር) የሚበላ የመኖ ምርት ሰጥቷል፡፡ ከዚህ በፊት የተለቀቀው የታጋሳስቴ ዝርያ (MoA) ከሌሎች እጩ ዝርያዎች ጋር ሲወዳደር በተቃራኒው ከፍተኛ የሆነ የማይበላ የመኖ ምርት (6.40 ቶን በሄክታር) ነበረው፡፡ ታጋሳስቴ የሚበላና (ቅጠልና የሚበላ ቅርንጫፍ) የማይበላ (ግንድ) የተክል ክፍል ያለው ሲሆን ለቱ ተብሎ የተለቀቀው ዝርያ በትክክለኛው ጊዜ ከታጨደ 61 ፐርሰንቱ የሚበላ ሲሆን 39 ፐርሰንቱ ግን የግንድ ክፍል ስለሆነ የማይበላ ነው፡፡ የተለቀቀው ለቱ ዝርያ 7.46 ቶን በሄክታር የሚበላ የመኖ ምርት፣ 1.64 ቶን በሄክታር የክሩድ ፕሮቲን ምርትና 3.99 ቶን በሄክታር የሚፈጭ የመኖ ምርት ሰጥቷል፡፡ ለቱ ዝርያ ከዚህ በፊት ከተለቀቀው ዝርያ ጋር ሲወዳደር 24.63 ፐርሰንት የክሩድ ፕሮቲን ምርትና 10.33 ፐርሰንት የሚፈጭ የመኖ ምርት ጭማሪ ነበረው፡፡ በአጠቃላይ የተለቀቀው ለቱ ዝርያ የተሻለ የሚበላ የተክል ክፍል፣ ክሩድ ፕሮቲን እና በእንስሳት ሆድ ውስጥ በተሻለ ሁኔታ የመፈጨት ባህሪያት ነበሩት፡፡ ስለዚህ በብሔራዊ የዝርያ አፅዳቂ ኮሚቴ ዝርያዎቹ ያላቸው የምርታማነት ሁኔታ  እኤአ በ2017 በመስክ ላይ ከተገመገመ በኋላ እኤአ በሚያዝያ 2018 ለቱ የተባለው ዝርያ ለደጋማ አከባቢዎች እንዲለቀቅ የተወሰነ ሲሆን ዘሩን በሆለታ ግብርና ምርምር ማዕከል ይገኛል፡፡      Abstract   Fifteen tagasaste varieties including the standard check variety (MoA) were evaluated for forage dry matter yield, nutritional profiles, disease and insect pest reaction, and other agro-morphological characteristics at Holetta and Jeldu research sites during the main cropping seasons of 2008-2011. Based on the overall performance, three best performing varieties (CI-15052, CI-17497, and CI-15039) were selected and verified with the standard check at Holetta, and Kulumsa Agricultural Research Centers and Jeldu sub-site in 2017 cropping season. The overall mean result indicated that the released variety Lattuu (CI-15052) produced the highest edible yield (7.46 t/ha) while variety CI-15039 produced the lowest (3.60 t/ha) edible yield when compared with other varieties. On the other hand, the standard check variety (MoA) produced the highest (6.40 t/ha) inedible yield. The tagasaste varieties comprise edible (leaf and edible branch) and inedible (stem) plant parts; however, the share of the edible part (61%) of the released Lattuu variety was much higher than its inedible (39%) part of the plant. The total edible dry matter, crude protein, and digestible yields of the Lattuu variety were 7.46, 1.64, and 3.99 t/ha, respectively. Moreover, the released Lattuu variety had 24.63 and 10.33% CP yield and digestible yield advantages over the standard check variety, respectively. Generally, the released Lattuu variety had relatively better leaf to stem ratio, CP, and IVOMD advantages over the standard check variety. Therefore, the national variety releasing committee evaluated the varieties at field conditions in October 2017 and variety Lattuu (CI-15052) was officially released in April 2018 for the highland areas and similar agro-ecologies of the country. The pre-basic and basic seeds of the released Lattuu variety are maintained by the feeds and nutrition research section of Holetta Agricultural Research Center

The Economic Impact of Productive Safety Net Program on Poverty: Microeconometrics Analysis, Tigrai National Regional State, Ethiopia

This paper aims at evaluating the impact of productive safety net program on poverty using primary data from randomly selected 600 households in central zone of Tigrai National Regional State, Ethiopia. Propensity Score Matching and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke were used to evaluate impact of the program and poverty, respectively. The paper revealed that the program has positive and significant effect on consumption, livestock holdings, and productive assets. Moreover, impact of the program on total consumption expenditure per adult equivalent was found to be positive and significant. Using total poverty line, poverty rate was lowest among program participants (30.33%) than non-participants (31.1%). Highest poverty rate was found among households headed by women (38.42%) while households headed by men (23.1%). The study also revealed that the program has positive and significant effect on poverty reduction and protecting productive assets. Finally, it was recommended that female headed program participants based programs should be provided to help boost their agricultural output and reduce endemic poverty

Novel Epitopes Mapping of African Swine Fever Virus CP312R Protein Using Monoclonal Antibodies

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and lethal pig disease and poses a huge threat to the pig industry worldwide. ASF virus (ASFV) encodes more than 150 different proteins, but the biological properties of most viral proteins are still unknown. ASFV CP312R protein has been proven to be one of the most immunogenic proteins during ASFV infection in pigs; however, its specific epitopes have yet to be identified. In this study, we verified the immunogenicity of CP312R protein in the sera from attenuated ASFV-inoculated pigs. We generated seven anti-ASFV CP312R mouse monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from mice immunized with recombinant CP312R protein (rCP312R). All seven mAbs are the IgG2b-Kappa isotype and specifically interacted with the CP312R protein expressed in various cells that were infected by ASFVs or transfected with plasmid CP312R. The epitope mapping was performed by using these characterized mAbs and the peptide scanning (Pepscan) method followed by Western blot. As a result, two antigenic determinant regions were identified: two of the seven mAbs recognized the 122KNEQGEEIYP131 amino acids, and the remaining five mAbs recognized the 78DEEVIRMNAE87 amino acids of the CP312R protein. These antigenic determinants of CP312R are conserved in different ASFV strains of seven genotypes. By using the characterized mAb, confocal microscopy observation revealed that the CP312R was mainly localized in the cytoplasm and, to some extent, in nuclei and on the nuclear membrane of infected host cells. In summary, our results benefit our understanding on the antigenic regions of ASFV CP312R and help to develop better serological diagnosis of ASF and vaccine research