Verifying Empirical Predictive Modeling of Societal Vulnerability to Hazardous Events: A Monte Carlo Experimental Approach

With the emergence of large amounts of historical records on adverse impacts of hazardous events, empirical predictive modeling has been revived as a foundational paradigm for quantifying disaster vulnerability of societal systems. This paradigm models societal vulnerability to hazardous events as a vulnerability curve indicating an expected loss rate of a societal system with respect to a possible spectrum of intensity measure (IM) of an event. Although the empirical predictive models (EPMs) of societal vulnerability are calibrated on historical data, they should not be experimentally tested with data derived from field experiments on any societal system. Alternatively, in this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo simulation-based approach to experimentally test EPMs of societal vulnerability. Our study applied an eigenvalue-based method to generate data on societal experiences of IM and pre-event vulnerability indicators. True models were designed to simulate event loss data. Supervised machine learning (ML) models were then trained on simulated data and were found to provide similar predictive performances as the true models. Our results suggested that the calibrated ML-EPMs could effectively quantify societal vulnerability given a normally experienced IM. To extrapolate a vulnerability curve for large IMs, however, simple models should be preferred

Relative Importance of Radar Variables for Nowcasting Heavy Rainfall: A Machine Learning Approach

Highly short-term forecasting, or nowcasting, of heavy rainfall due to rapidly evolving mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is particularly challenging for traditional numerical weather prediction models. To overcome such a challenge, a growing number of studies have shown significant advantages of using machine learning (ML) modeling techniques with remote sensing data, especially weather radar data, for high-resolution rainfall nowcasting. To improve ML model performance, it is essential first and foremost to quantify the importance of radar variables and identify pertinent predictors of rainfall that can also be associated with domain knowledge. In this study, a set of MCS types consisting of convective cell, mesoscale convective cell, diagonal squall line, and parallel squall line, was adopted to categorize MCS storm cells, following the fuzzy logic algorithm for storm tracking, over the Korean Peninsula. The relationships between rain rates and over 15 variables derived from data products of dual-polarimetric weather radar were investigated and quantified via 5 ML regression methods and a permutation importance algorithm. As an applicational example, ML classification models were also developed to predict locations of storm cells. Recalibrated ML regression models with identified pertinent predictors were coupled with the ML classification models to provide early warnings of heavy rainfall. Results imply that future work needs to consider MCS type information to improve ML modeling for nowcasting and early warning of heavy rainfall

Structural safety inspection of reinforced concrete structures considering failure probabilities of structural members

Regular safety inspections of existing reinforced concrete (RC) structures are required according to the regulations and criteria set by each country. In South Korea, the safety inspection regulations provided by the Korea Infrastructure Safety and Technology Corporation (KISTEC) are followed. These regulations were developed based on fuzzy theory to avoid subjective decisions, and provide standardized deterioration grades for member types, floors, and the entire structure. However, the safety inspection regulation by the KISTEC often provides unconservative evaluation results. In particular, as the importance factors of beam and slab members are set lower than those of other members, there are cases in which deteriorations occurring in beams and slabs are not properly reflected in the floor level evaluation. In this study, to overcome such limitations, case studies were carried out and modified importance factors for structural member types were proposed considering the failure probabilities of each member type based on the reliability theory. The importance modification factor was calculated based on the strength ratio of structural members so that the more dangerous the members are, the more impact they give on the evaluation. Overall, compared to the KISTEC method, the proposed method provided conservative but practical assessment results, and it was found that the proposed importance factors can be very useful to properly reflect the effects of damaged members on the deterioration status evaluation of the floors and the entire structure

A STUDY ON THE GRIP FORCE DURING PUTTING STROKE

There are lots of variables to affect the control of ball movement during golf putting. Among several variables, it is believed that grip force during putting stroke is one of the important variables. However, there is not much quantitative evidence from published literature (Delay 1997, Gwyn 1993). Therefore, the purpose of this study was to quantify the grip force by comparing putts performed by elite and novice golfers and to identify the relationship between kinematic parameters and the grip force at 16 different parts of subjects’ right and left hand at each putting phase

Light-chain amyloidosis presenting with rapidly progressive submucosal hemorrhage of the stomach

SummaryThe gastrointestinal tract is frequently in involved light-chain (AL) amyloidosis, but significant hemorrhagic complications are rare. A 71-year-old man presented to our hospital with dyspepsia and heartburn for 1 month. Gastroscopy revealed a large submucosal hematoma at the gastric fundus. Two days later, a follow-up gastroscopy indicated extensive expansion of the hematoma throughout the upper half of the stomach. The hematoma displayed ongoing expansion during the endoscopic examination, suggesting that rupture was imminent. Emergency total gastrectomy was performed, and amyloidosis was confirmed after examining the surgical specimen. Bone marrow examination revealed multiple myeloma, and serum immunoglobulin assay confirmed the diagnosis of myeloma-associated AL amyloidosis. At manuscript submission, the patient was doing well and was undergoing chemotherapy

First Fatal Oseltamivir-Resistant 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Case in an Adult in Korea

It has been suggested that oseltamivir-resistant influenza viruses harboring the H274/275Y mutation are less virulent than are those that are oseltamivir-sensitive, and fatality attributed to infection with an oseltamivir-resistant virus is very rare. Here we report the first fatal adult case of oseltamivir-resistant 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Korea. A 60-year-old Korean male who had hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, and dilated cardiomyopathy visited Chonnam National University Hospital because of a 7-day history of chest pain and dyspnea. The patient was at another clinic and had been medicated with oseltamivir (75 mg twice daily) beginning 7 days before admission. Empirical antibiotics were started on the first day of hospitalization. Reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) was reported to be positive, and a double dose of oseltamivir (150 mg twice per day) was started on day four of hospitalization. However, the pneumonia worsened and the patient died, despite 3 days of high-dose antiviral therapy and 6 days of antibacterial therapy. An H275Y mutation was detected in the neuraminidase gene sequence. This case shows that oseltamivir resistance after short-term drug exposure is possible and can be fatal, emphasizing that early use of zanamivir should be considered in suspicious cases

Radiation-Induced Complications after Breast Cancer Radiation Therapy: a Pictorial Review of Multimodality Imaging Findings

The purpose of this pictorial essay is to illustrate the multimodality imaging findings of a wide spectrum of radiation-induced complications of breast cancer in the sequence of occurrence. We have classified radiation-induced complications into three groups based on the time sequence of occurrence. Knowledge of these findings will allow for the early detection of complications as well as the ability to differentiate tumor recurrence

Distinct effects of rosuvastatin and rosuvastatin/ezetimibe on senescence markers of CD8+ T cells in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a randomized controlled trial

ObjectivesChronic low-grade inflammation is widely recognized as a pathophysiological defect contributing to β-cell failure in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Statin therapy is known to ameliorate CD8+ T cell senescence, a mediator of chronic inflammation. However, the additional immunomodulatory roles of ezetimibe are not fully understood. Therefore, we investigated the effect of statin or statin/ezetimibe combination treatment on T cell senescence markers.MethodsIn this two-group parallel and randomized controlled trial, we enrolled 149 patients with T2DM whose low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) was 100 mg/dL or higher. Patients were randomly assigned to either the rosuvastatin group (N=74) or the rosuvastatin/ezetimibe group (N=75). The immunophenotype of peripheral blood mononuclear cells and metabolic profiles were analyzed using samples from baseline and post-12 weeks of medication.ResultsThe fractions of CD8+CD57+ (senescent CD8+ T cells) and CD4+FoxP3+ (Treg) significantly decreased after intervention in the rosuvastatin/ezetimibe group (−4.5 ± 14.1% and −1.2 ± 2.3%, respectively), while these fractions showed minimal change in the rosuvastatin group (2.8 ± 9.4% and 1.4 ± 1.5%, respectively). The degree of LDL-C reduction was correlated with an improvement in HbA1c (R=0.193, p=0.021). Changes in the CD8+CD57+ fraction positively correlated with patient age (R=0.538, p=0.026). Notably, the fraction change in senescent CD8+ T cells showed no significant relationship with changes in either HbA1c (p=0.314) or LDL-C (p=0.592). Finally, the ratio of naïve to memory CD8+ T cells increased in the rosuvastatin/ezetimibe group (p=0.011), but not in the rosuvastatin group (p=0.339).ConclusionsWe observed a reduction in senescent CD8+ T cells and an increase in the ratio of naive to memory CD8+ T cells with rosuvastatin/ezetimibe treatment. Our results demonstrate the immunomodulatory roles of ezetimibe in combination with statins, independent of improvements in lipid or HbA1c levels