An Agent-based approach to modelling integrated product teams undertaking a design activity.

The interactions between individual designers, within integrated product teams, and the nature of design tasks, all have a significant impact upon how well a design task can be performed, and hence the quality of the resultant product and the time in which it can be delivered. In this paper we describe an ongoing research project which aims to model integrated product teams through the use of multi-agent systems. We first describe the background and rationale for our work, and then present our initial computational model and results from the simulation of an integrated product team. The paper concludes with a discussion of how the model will evolve to improve the accuracy of the simulation

Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: The main objective of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to make real-time predictions on the number of beds occupied in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, during the recent SARS outbreak. METHODS: This is a retrospective study design. Hospital admission and occupancy data for isolation beds was collected from Tan Tock Seng hospital for the period 14th March 2003 to 31st May 2003. The main outcome measure was daily number of isolation beds occupied by SARS patients. Among the covariates considered were daily number of people screened, daily number of people admitted (including observation, suspect and probable cases) and days from the most recent significant event discovery. We utilized the following strategy for the analysis. Firstly, we split the outbreak data into two. Data from 14th March to 21st April 2003 was used for model development. We used structural ARIMA models in an attempt to model the number of beds occupied. Estimation is via the maximum likelihood method using the Kalman filter. For the ARIMA model parameters, we considered the simplest parsimonious lowest order model. RESULTS: We found that the ARIMA (1,0,3) model was able to describe and predict the number of beds occupied during the SARS outbreak well. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the training set and validation set were 5.7% and 8.6% respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the hospital setting. Furthermore, the model also provided three-day forecasts of the number of beds required. Total number of admissions and probable cases admitted on the previous day were also found to be independent prognostic factors of bed occupancy. CONCLUSION: ARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS. The model could well be used in planning for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious diseases as well

The outbreak of SARS at Tan Tock Seng Hospital--relating epidemiology to control.

INTRODUCTION: The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) began after the index case was admitted on 1 March 2003. We profile the cases suspected to have acquired the infection in Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH), focussing on major transmission foci, and also describe and discuss the impact of our outbreak control measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the World Health Organization (WHO) case definitions for probable SARS adapted to the local context, we studied all cases documented to have passed through TTSH less than 10 days prior to the onset of fever. Key data were collected in liaison with clinicians and through a team of onsite epidemiologists. RESULTS: There were 105 secondary cases in TTSH. Healthcare staff (57.1%) formed the majority, followed by visitors (30.5%) and inpatients (12.4%). The earliest case had onset of fever on 4 March 2003, and the last case, on 5 April 2003. Eighty-nine per cent had exposures to 7 wards which had cases of SARS that were not isolated on admission. In 3 of these wards, major outbreaks resulted, each with more than 20 secondary cases. Attack rates amongst ward-based staff ranged from 0% to 32.5%. Of 13 inpatients infected, only 4 (30.8%) had been in the same room or cubicle as the index case for the ward. CONCLUSIONS: The outbreak of SARS at TTSH showed the challenges of dealing with an emerging infectious disease with efficient nosocomial spread. Super-spreading events and initial delays in outbreak response led to widespread dissemination of the outbreak to multiple wards

Stellar Absorption Lines in the Spectra of Seyfert Galaxies

We have measured the strengths of Ca II Triplet and Mgb stellar absorption lines in the nuclear and off-nuclear spectra of Seyfert galaxies. These features are diluted to varying degrees by continuum emission from the active nucleus and from young stars. Ca II Triplet strengths can be enhanced if late-type supergiant stars dominate the near-IR light. Thus, objects with strong Ca II Triplet and weak Mgb lines may be objects with strong bursts of star formation. We find that for most of our sample the line strengths are at least consistent with dilution of a normal galaxy spectrum by a power law continuum, in accord with the standard model for AGN. However, for several Seyferts in our sample, it appears that dilution by a power law continuum cannot simultaneously explain strong Ca II Triplet and relatively weak Mgb. Also, these objects occupy the region of the IRAS color-color diagram characteristic of starburst galaxies. In these objects it appears that the optical to near-IR emission is dominated by late-type supergiants produced in a circumnuclear burst of star formation.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, to appear in Advances in Space Research, presented at "The AGN/Host Galaxy Connection" as part of the Scientific Assembly of COSPAR, July 12-18 Nagoya, Japa

microRNAs in the Lymphatic Endothelium : Master Regulators of Lineage Plasticity and Inflammation

microRNAs (miRNAs) are highly conserved, small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression at the posttranscriptional level. They have crucial roles in organismal development, homeostasis, and cellular responses to pathological stress. The lymphatic system is a large vascular network that actively regulates the immune response through antigen trafficking, cytokine secretion, and inducing peripheral tolerance. Here, we review the role of miRNAs in the lymphatic endothelium with a particular focus on their role in lymphatic endothelial cell (LEC) plasticity, inflammation, and regulatory function. We highlight the lineage plasticity of LECs during inflammation and the importance of understanding the regulatory role of miRNAs in these processes. We propose that targeting miRNA expression in lymphatic endothelium can be a novel strategy in treating human pathologies associated with lymphatic dysfunction

Social machines for education driven by feedback agents

The aim of this paper is to explain some of the ways in which multi agent system (MAS) theory can be used to describe, design and enhance social machines (also referred to as Socio-Cognitive Systems). We believe there is a really opportunity for the MAS community to engage with emerging theory and practice of designing such systems. Social machines - also referred to as Socio-Cognitive Systems from the MAS community - are terms used to refer to the recent breed of technological systems which allow human and computational agents to socially interact, typically on a large scale and sometimes towards achieving shared goals. Examples include social networking platforms and crowd sourced encyclopaedias. The discussion of social machines and MAS is taken from three perspectives. Firstly, the theoretical notion of an abstract social machine as a socio-cognitive system containing humans and agents is introduced. Secondly, a speci#12;c instance of a social machine which has been designed to enable social music learning supported by agents is described. Thirdly, an agent architecture which is designed for operation within educational social machines is discussed, with particular focus on what we believe is the core currency of these machines: feedback.Much of of this work was undertaken as part of the FP7 project in the Technology Enhanced Learning Program called Practice and Performance Analysis Inspiring Social Education (PRAISE) involving the 1st and 2nd authors. We acknowledge Harry Brenton, Marco Gillies Andreu Grimalt-Reynes, Jonathan James, Edgar Jones, Julian Padget and Harko Harko Verhagen who have helped in discussions. The second author received support from the European Network for Social Intelligence, SINTELNET (FET Open Coordinated Action FP7-ICT-2009-C Project No. 286370) for short term visits to the IIIA to work with the 3rd author.Peer Reviewe

Dynamic subcellular translocation of V-type H+ -ATPase is essential for biomineralization of the diatom silica cell wall.

Diatom cell walls, called frustules, are main sources of biogenic silica in the ocean and their intricate morphology is an inspiration for nanoengineering. Here we show dynamic aspects of frustule biosynthesis involving acidification of the silica deposition vesicle (SDV) by V-type H+  ATPase (VHA). Transgenic Thalassiosira pseudonana expressing the VHA B subunit tagged with enhanced green fluorescent protein (VHAB -eGFP) enabled subcellular protein localization in live cells. In exponentially growing cultures, VHAB -eGFP was present in various subcellular localizations including the cytoplasm, SDVs and vacuoles. We studied the role of VHA during frustule biosynthesis in synchronized cell cultures of T. pseudonana. During the making of new biosilica components, VHAB -eGFP first localized in the girdle band SDVs, and subsequently in valve SDVs. In single cell time-lapse imaging experiments, VHAB -eGFP localization in SDVs precluded accumulation of the acidotropic silica biomineralization marker PDMPO. Furthermore, pharmacological VHA inhibition prevented PDMPO accumulation in the SDV, frustule biosynthesis and cell division, as well as insertion of the silicalemma-associated protein SAP1 into the SDVs. Finally, partial inhibition of VHA activity affected the nanoscale morphology of the valve. Altogether, these results indicate that VHA is essential for frustule biosynthesis by acidifying the SDVs and regulating the insertion of other structural proteins into the SDV

The pop song generator: designing an online course to teach collaborative, creative AI

This article describes and evaluates a new online AI-creativity course. The course is based around three near-state-of-the-art AI models combined into a pop song generating system. A fine-tuned GPT-2 model writes lyrics, Music-VAE composes musical scores and instrumentation and Diffsinger synthesises a singing voice. We explain the decisions made in designing the course which is based on Piagetian, constructivist 'learning-by-doing'. We present details of the five-week course design with learning objectives, technical concepts, and creative and technical activities. We explain how we overcame technical challenges to build a complete pop song generator system, consisting of Python scripts, pre-trained models, and Javascript code that runs in a dockerised Linux container via a web-based IDE. A quantitative analysis of student activity provides evidence on engagement and a benchmark for future improvements. A qualitative analysis of a workshop with experts validated the overall course design, it suggested the need for a stronger creative brief and ethical and legal content