Machine learning models to predict length of stay and discharge destination in complex head and neck surgery.

BackgroundThis study develops machine learning (ML) algorithms that use preoperative-only features to predict discharge-to-nonhome-facility (DNHF) and length-of-stay (LOS) following complex head and neck surgeries.MethodsPatients undergoing laryngectomy or composite tissue excision followed by free tissue transfer were extracted from the 2005 to 2017 NSQIP database.ResultsAmong the 2786 included patients, DNHF and mean LOS were 421 (15.1%) and 11.7 ± 8.8 days. Four classification models for predicting DNHF with high specificities (range, 0.80-0.84) were developed. The generalized linear and gradient boosting machine models performed best with receiver operating characteristic (ROC), accuracy, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.72-0.73, 0.75-0.76, and 0.88-0.89. Four regression models for predicting LOS in days were developed, where all performed similarly with mean absolute error and root mean-squared errors of 3.95-3.98 and 5.14-5.16. Both models were developed into an encrypted web-based interface: https://uci-ent.shinyapps.io/head-neck/.ConclusionNovel and proof-of-concept ML models to predict DNHF and LOS were developed and published as web-based interfaces

Treatment Modalities and Survival Outcomes for Sinonasal Diffuse Large B‐Cell Lymphoma

Objectives/hypothesisThis study utilizes a large population national database to comprehensively analyze prognosticators and overall survival (OS) outcomes of varying treatment modalities in a large cohort of sinonasal diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (SN-DLBCL) patients.Study designRetrospective database study.MethodsThe National Cancer Database was queried for all SN-DLBCL cases diagnosed from 2004 to 2015. Kaplan-Meier log-rank test determined differences in OS based on clinical covariates. Cox proportional-hazards analysis was used to determine clinical and sociodemographic covariates predictive of mortality.ResultsA total of 2,073 SN-DLBCL patients were included, consisting of 48% female with a mean age of 66.0 ± 16.2 years. Overall, 82% of patients were Caucasian, 74% had early-stage disease, and 49% had primary tumors in the paranasal sinuses. Early-stage patients were more likely to receive multi-agent chemoradiotherapy compared to multi-agent chemotherapy alone (P < .001). Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards analysis revealed chemoradiotherapy to confer significantly greater OS improvements than chemotherapy alone (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.61; P < .001). However, subset analysis of late-stage patients demonstrated no significant differences in OS between these treatment modalities (P = .245). On multivariable analysis of chemotherapy patients treated post-2012, immunotherapy (HR = 0.51; P = .024) demonstrated significant OS benefits. However, subset analysis showed no significant advantage in OS with administering immunotherapy for late-stage patients (P = .326). Lastly, for all patients treated post-2012, those receiving immunotherapy had significantly improved OS compared to those not receiving immunotherapy (P < .001).ConclusionsTreatment protocol selection differs between early- and late-stage SN-DLBCL patients. Early-stage patients receiving chemotherapy may benefit from immunotherapy as part of their treatment paradigm.Level of evidence3 Laryngoscope, 131:E2727-E2735, 2021

Short-Term Morbidity and Predictors of Adverse Events Following Esthesioneuroblastoma Surgery.

IntroductionThe short-term adverse events and predictors of morbidity in surgical resection of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB) are largely unknown, and investigating these variables can help direct planning for at-risk patients.MethodsThe 2005-2017 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried to identify patients with a diagnosis of ENB undergoing skull base surgery for tumor resection. Information regarding demographics, patient morbidity score, pre-operative and intra-operative data, and post-operative outcomes were extracted. Cox proportional hazard analysis was utilized to assess complication and readmission/reoperation rates.ResultsA total of 95 patients undergoing skull base surgery for resection of ENB were included. Mean age, BMI, operation time, and post-operative length of stay (LOS) of the cohort were 53.6 ± 16.2 years, 29.1 ± 6.5, 392.0 ± 204.6 minutes, and 5.8 ± 4.6 days, respectively. In total, 31 patients (32.6%) experienced at least one 30-day adverse event, which included blood transfusion intra-operatively or within 72 hours from the operation (22.1%), readmission (10.7%), intubation >48 hours (7.4%), reintubation (4.2%), organ or space infection (4.2%), reoperation (4.0%), superficial or deep surgical site infection (2.1%), sepsis (2.1%), pulmonary embolism (1.1%), and myocardial infarction (1.1%). Patients who experienced at least one adverse event had significantly higher operation time (486.8 ± 230.4 vs. 347.5 ± 176.2 minutes, p = 0.002), LOS (9.2 ± 5.6 days vs. 4.2 ± 3.0, p < 0.001), and lower hematocrit (37.3 ± 5.9 vs. 41.2 ± 3.8, p < 0.001) and albumin levels (3.8 ± 0.6 vs. 4.2 ± 0.3, p = 0.009). Patients with a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (HR = 2.39; p = 0.047) or longer operation time (HR = 1.004; p = 0.001) had a significantly higher risk for experiencing adverse events. Obesity was not associated with different intra- or post-operative outcomes, but older patients had shorter operations (p = 0.002) and LOS (p = 0.0014).ConclusionLonger operation time and lower pre-operative hematocrit and albumin levels may all increase complication rates in ENB resection. Patients with high ASA score or more advanced age may have different short-term outcomes

Impact of Treatment Modalities upon Survival Outcomes in Skull Base and Clival Chordoma: An NCDB Analysis

Objectives  Skull base chordomas are locally aggressive malignant tumors derived from the notochord remnant. There are limited large-scale studies examining the role and extent of surgery and radiation therapy. Design  Analysis of the National Cancer Database (NCDB) was performed to evaluate the survival outcomes of various treatments, and to assess for predictors of overall survival (OS). Participants  This is a retrospective, population-based cohort study of patients diagnosed with a clival/skull base chordoma between 2004 and 2015 in the NCDB. Main Outcome Measures  The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Results  In all, 468 cases were identified. Forty-nine percent of patients received surgery and 20.7% had positive margins. Mean age at diagnosis was 48.4 years in the surgical cohort, and 55% were males. Of the surgical cohort, 33.8% had negative margins, 20.7% had positive margins, and 45.5% had unknown margin status. Age ≥ 65 (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.63-5.76; p  < 0.001), diagnosis between 2010 and 2015 (HR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.26-0.90; p  = 0.022), tumor size >5 cm (HR: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.26-4.15; p  = 0.007), and government insurance (HR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.24-4.2; p  = 0.008) were independent predictors of OS. When comparing surgery with or without adjuvant radiation, no survival differences were found, regardless of margin status ( p  = 0.66). Conclusion  Surgery remains the mainstay of therapy. Advanced age (>65 years), large tumor size, and government insurance were predictors of worse OS. Whereas negative margins and the use of adjuvant radiation did not appear to impact OS, these may very well reduce local recurrences. A multidisciplinary approach is critical in achieving optimal outcomes in this challenging disease