Forecasting of global horizontal irradiance by exponential smoothing, using decompositions

Time series methods are frequently used in solar irradiance forecasting when two dimensional cloud information provided by satellite or sky camera is unavailable. ETS (exponential smoothing) has received extensive attention in the recent years since the invention of its state space formulation. In this work, we combine these models with knowledge based heuristic time series decomposition methods to improve the forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.<p></p> In particular, three decomposition methods are proposed. The first method implements an additive seasonal-trend decomposition as a preprocessing technique prior to ETS. This can reduce the state space thus improve the computational efficiency. The second method decomposes the GHI (global horizontal irradiance) time series into a direct component and a diffuse component. These two components are used as forecasting model inputs separately; and their corresponding results are recombined via the closure equation to obtain the GHI forecasts. In the third method, the time series of the cloud cover index is considered. ETS is applied to the cloud cover time series to obtain the cloud cover forecast thus the forecast GHI through polynomial regressions. The results show that the third method performs the best among three methods and all proposed methods outperform the persistence models.<p></p&gt

Orbital and valley state spectra of a few-electron silicon quantum dot

Understanding interactions between orbital and valley quantum states in silicon nanodevices is crucial in assessing the prospects of spin-based qubits. We study the energy spectra of a few-electron silicon metal-oxide-semiconductor quantum dot using dynamic charge sensing and pulsed-voltage spectroscopy. The occupancy of the quantum dot is probed down to the single-electron level using a nearby single-electron transistor as a charge sensor. The energy of the first orbital excited state is found to decrease rapidly as the electron occupancy increases from N=1 to 4. By monitoring the sequential spin filling of the dot we extract a valley splitting of ~230 {\mu}eV, irrespective of electron number. This indicates that favorable conditions for qubit operation are in place in the few-electron regime.Comment: 4 figure

Quantum Tomographic Cryptography with a Semiconductor Single Photon Source

In this paper we analyze the security of the so-called quantum tomographic cryptography with the source producing entangled photons via an experimental scheme proposed in Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 37903 (2004). We determine the range of the experimental parameters for which the protocol is secure against the most general incoherent attacks

A robust optimisation model for hybrid remanufacturing and manufacturing systems under uncertain return quality and market demand

In remanufacturing research, most researchers predominantly emphasised on the recovery of whole product (core) rather than at the component level due to its complexity. In contrast, this paper addresses the challenges to focus on remanufacturing through component recovery, so as to solve production planning problems of hybrid remanufacturing and manufacturing systems. To deal with the uncertainties of quality and quantity of product returns, the processing time of remanufacturing, remanufacturing costs, as well as market demands, a robust optimisation model was developed in this research and a case study was used to evaluate its effectiveness and efficiency. To strengthen this research, a sensitivity analysis of the uncertain parameters and the original equipment manufacturer’s (OEM’s) pricing strategy was also conducted. The research finding shows that the market demand volatility leads to a significant increase in the under fulfilment and a reduction in OEM’s profit. On the other hand, recovery cost reduction, as endogenous cost saving, encourages the OEM to produce more remanufactured products with the increase in market demand. Furthermore, the OEM may risk profit loss if they raise the price of new products, and inversely, they could gain more if the price of remanufactured products is raised

Quantum tomographic cryptography with Bell diagonal states: non-equivalence of classical and quantum distillation protocols

We present a generalized tomographic quantum key distribution protocol in which the two parties share a Bell diagonal mixed state of two qubits. We show that if an eavesdropper performs a coherent measurement on many quantum ancilla states simultaneously, classical methods of secure key distillation are less effective than quantum entanglement distillation protocols. We also show that certain Bell diagonal states are resistant to any attempt of incoherent eavesdropping.Comment: 9 pages. 2 figures There was an error in the formula 4 (transformation of Bell states). This error does not change the main result of the paper, namely, that quantum distillation is more powerful than classical advantage distillatio

The Near-Earth Encounter of Asteroid 308635 (2005 YU55): Thermal IR Observations

The near-Earth approach (0.00217 AU, or 0.845 lunar distances) of the C-type asteroid 308635 (2005 YU55) in November 2011 presented a rare opportunity for detailed observations of a low-albedo NEA in this size range. As part of a multi-telescope campaign to measure visible and infrared spectra and photometry, we obtained mid-infrared (approx. 8 to 22 micron) photometry and spectroscopy of 2005 YU55 using Michelle on the Gemini North telescope on UT November 9 and 10,2011. An extensive radar campaign together with optical light-curves established the rotation state of YU55. In addition, the radar imaging resulted in a shape model for the asteroid, detection of numerous boulders on its surface, and a preliminary estimate of its equatorial diameter at 380 +/- 20 m. In a preliminary analysis, applying the radar and lightcurve-derived parameters to a rough-surface thermophysical model fit to the Gemini/Michelle thermal emission photometry results in a thermal inertia range of approximately 500 to 1500 J/sq m/0.5s/K, with the low-thermal-inertia solution corresponding to the small end of the radar size range and vice versa. Updates to these results will be presented and modeling of the thermal contribution to the measured near-infrared spectra from Palomar/Triplespec and IRTF/SpeX will also be discussed