Estimating Portfolio Risk for Tail Risk Protection Strategies

We forecast portfolio risk for managing dynamic tail risk protection strategies, based on extreme value theory, expectile regression, Copula-GARCH and dynamic GAS models. Utilizing a loss function that overcomes the lack of elicitability for Expected Shortfall, we propose a novel Expected Shortfall (and Value-at-Risk) forecast combination approach, which dominates simple and sophisticated standalone models as well as a simple average combination approach in modelling the tail of the portfolio return distribution. While the associated dynamic risk targeting or portfolio insurance strategies provide effective downside protection, the latter strategies suffer less from inferior risk forecasts given the defensive portfolio insurance mechanics

OGLE-2013-BLG-0102LA,B: Microlensing binary with components at star/brown-dwarf and brown-dwarf/planet boundaries

We present the analysis of the gravitational microlensing event OGLE-2013-BLG-0102. The light curve of the event is characterized by a strong short-term anomaly superposed on a smoothly varying lensing curve with a moderate magnification $A_{\rm max}\sim 1.5$. It is found that the event was produced by a binary lens with a mass ratio between the components of $q = 0.13$ and the anomaly was caused by the passage of the source trajectory over a caustic located away from the barycenter of the binary. From the analysis of the effects on the light curve due to the finite size of the source and the parallactic motion of the Earth, the physical parameters of the lens system are determined. The measured masses of the lens components are $M_{1} = 0.096 \pm 0.013~M_{\odot}$ and $M_{2} = 0.012 \pm 0.002~M_{\odot}$, which correspond to near the hydrogen-burning and deuterium-burning mass limits, respectively. The distance to the lens is $3.04 \pm 0.31~{\rm kpc}$ and the projected separation between the lens components is $0.80 \pm 0.08~{\rm AU}$.Comment: 6 figures, 2 tables, ApJ submitte

OGLE-2012-BLG-0455/MOA-2012-BLG-206: Microlensing event with ambiguity in planetary interpretations caused by incomplete coverage of planetary signal

Characterizing a microlensing planet is done from modeling an observed lensing light curve. In this process, it is often confronted that solutions of different lensing parameters result in similar light curves, causing difficulties in uniquely interpreting the lens system, and thus understanding the causes of different types of degeneracy is important. In this work, we show that incomplete coverage of a planetary perturbation can result in degenerate solutions even for events where the planetary signal is detected with a high level of statistical significance. We demonstrate the degeneracy for an actually observed event OGLE-2012-BLG-0455/MOA-2012-BLG-206. The peak of this high-magnification event $(A_{\rm max}\sim400)$ exhibits very strong deviation from a point-lens model with $\Delta\chi^{2}\gtrsim4000$ for data sets with a total number of measurement 6963. From detailed modeling of the light curve, we find that the deviation can be explained by four distinct solutions, i.e., two very different sets of solutions, each with a two-fold degeneracy. While the two-fold (so-called "close/wide") degeneracy is well-understood, the degeneracy between the radically different solutions is not previously known. The model light curves of this degeneracy differ substantially in the parts that were not covered by observation, indicating that the degeneracy is caused by the incomplete coverage of the perturbation. It is expected that the frequency of the degeneracy introduced in this work will be greatly reduced with the improvement of the current lensing survey and follow-up experiments and the advent of new surveys.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, ApJ accepte

Detection of Vibrio cholerae and Acanthamoeba species from same natural water samples collected from different cholera endemic areas in Sudan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Vibrio cholerae </it>O1 and <it>V. cholerae </it>O139 infect humans, causing the diarrheal and waterborne disease cholera, which is a worldwide health problem. <it>V. cholerae </it>and the free-living amoebae <it>Acanthamoeba </it>species are present in aquatic environments, including drinking water and it has shown that <it>Acanthamoebae </it>support bacterial growth and survival. Recently it has shown that <it>Acanthamoeba </it>species enhanced growth and survival of <it>V. cholerae </it>O1 and O139. Water samples from different cholera endemic areas in Sudan were collected with the aim to detect both <it>V. cholerae </it>and <it>Acanthamoeba </it>species from same natural water samples by polymerase chain reaction (PCR).</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>For the first time both <it>V. cholerae </it>and <it>Acanthamoeba </it>species were detected in same natural water samples collected from different cholera endemic areas in Sudan. 89% of detected <it>V. cholerae </it>was found with <it>Acanthamoeba </it>in same water samples.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The current findings disclose <it>Acanthamoedae </it>as a biological factor enhancing survival of <it>V. cholerae </it>in nature.</p

A Natural Combination Extract of Viscum album L. Containing Both Triterpene Acids and Lectins Is Highly Effective against AML In Vivo

Aqueous Viscum album L. extracts are widely used in complementary cancer medicine. Hydrophobic triterpene acids also possess anti-cancer properties, but due to their low solubility they do not occur in significant amounts in aqueous extracts. Using cyclodextrins we solubilised mistletoe triterpenes (mainly oleanolic acid) and investigated the effect of a mistletoe whole plant extract on human acute myeloid leukaemia cells in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo. Single Viscum album L. extracts containing only solubilised triterpene acids (TT) or lectins (viscum) inhibited cell proliferation and induced apoptosis in a dose-dependent manner in vitro and ex vivo. The combination of viscum and TT extracts (viscumTT) enhanced the induction of apoptosis synergistically. The experiments demonstrated that all three extracts are able to induce apoptosis via caspase-8 and -9 dependent pathways with down-regulation of members of the inhibitor of apoptosis and Bcl-2 families of proteins. Finally, the acute myeloid leukaemia mouse model experiment confirmed the therapeutic effectiveness of viscumTT-treatment resulting in significant tumour weight reduction, comparable to the effect in cytarabine-treated mice. These results suggest that the combination viscumTT may have a potential therapeutic value for the treatment AML