Oil price, exchange rate, money supply (M2) and inflation in Nigeria: Further analysis using the VECM approach

This study examines the length of transmission lag from monetary policy rate and money supply to inflation in Nigeria between the periods of January 2007 to March 2018. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study reveals that changes in MPR does not transmit instantly to inflation but does so only after delaying for sometimes, changes in the operating targets only impact on the ultimate target (inflation) after long period. It takes changes in MPR about 20 months to impact significantly on inflation, similarly, changes in M2 takes about 25 months to influence inflation in Nigeria. This suggest that the new operating framework (MPR) introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not effectively impact on inflation within the desired period. Therefore, it is recommended that the operating framework be streamlined to ensure the reduction in the transmission lag of monetary policy to inflation in Nigeria

Length of transmission lag from monetary policy rate (MPR) and broad money supply (M2) to inflation in Nigeria

This study examines the length of transmission lag from monetary policy rate and money supply to inflation in Nigeria between the periods of January 2007 to March 2018. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study reveals that changes in MPR does not transmit instantly to inflation but does so only after delaying for sometimes, changes in the operating targets only impact on the ultimate target (inflation) after long period. It takes changes in MPR about 20 months to impact significantly on inflation, similarly, changes in M2 takes about 25 months to influence inflation in Nigeria. This suggest that the new operating framework (MPR) introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not effectively impact on inflation within the desired period. Therefore, it is recommended that the operating framework be streamlined to ensure the reduction in the transmission lag of monetary policy to inflation in Nigeria

Impact of trade facilitation on intra-manufacturing export among ECOWAS member states

This study investigates the effects of trade facilitation policies on intra-manufacturing exports among ECOWAS member states. Utilizing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) linear model, this research analyzes data from 2015–2020 for the ECOWAS member states. The findings reveal that trade facilitation policies in the ECOWAS region fall below the global average. This discrepancy is primarily due to the extensive bureaucratic processes in the region, leading to increased costs for exporting and importing goods. Consequently, there is a significant need for trade facilitation to enhance intra-manufacturing exports within ECOWAS. Based on these insights, the study recommends several policy interventions to improve trade flow and bolster intra-manufacturing exports in the ECOWAS region. These include a stronger commitment to trade agreements among ECOWAS member states, the adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) to streamline trade processes and reduce bureaucratic delays associated with document processing for exports and imports, the strengthening of institutional frameworks within the member states, and the formulation of policies aimed at increasing industrialization levels to enhance manufacturing exports throughout the ECOWAS region

Infrastructure and economic growth in ECOWAS member states: The Westerlund co-integration approach

This research explores the impact of infrastructure on member states' economic growth in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Utilizing panel secondary data sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) and the African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) across all fifteen ECOWAS Member States over eighteen years, the study employs the panel Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and the Westerlund co-integration test for analysis. The findings reveal that investments in infrastructure, improvements in the African Development Index, and enhancements in the Electricity Composite Index significantly contribute to the economic growth of ECOWAS countries. Specifically, infrastructure investment is associated with a 0.01 per cent increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the ECOWAS countries studied. In comparison, the African Development Index and the Electricity Composite Index are linked to increases in GDP by 0.292 per cent and 0.987 per cent, respectively, in the long term. Based on these outcomes, the study recommends that ECOWAS country authorities enhance policies to optimize government spending on infrastructure quality. Furthermore, adopting quality-enhancing and efficiency-driven financing policies in infrastructure is advocated to complement ECOWAS's ongoing infrastructural development efforts. The realization of these recommendations hinges on the availability of accurate data for informing decisions and guiding policymakers. Hence, the study underscores the need for the ECOWAS Commission to bolster its capacity for collecting reliable data on infrastructure variables and other indicators. It also proposes that future research should focus on promoting sub-regional peer-review mechanisms for infrastructure indicators among member states and establishing structures to fortify infrastructure in West Africa

AGRICULTURE FINANCING AND FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA

This study examined the impact of public agriculture financing on food security in Nigeria spanning the period of 1981 to 2020. The data for the study were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study used calorie supply per capita as the dependent variable, while the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund, bank credit to the agricultural sector and interest rate were the independent variables. Findings from the study revealed that agriculture financing has a positive impact on food security in Nigeria, with the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund and bank credit to the agricultural sector having positive coefficients in the long-run and in the short-run. The result also shows that interest rate has a negative impact on food security in the long-run and in the short-run. Based on the findings of the study, it recommends that credit facilities through the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund and bank credit should be made available to farmers in order to enhance food security in Nigeria. Equally, the study also recommended that while encouraging farmers to take agricultural credit, the cost of credit to the agricultural sector should be reduced to encourage more farm investment

NON-OIL EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

This research utilizes yearly data from 1971 to 2021 to analyse the trajectory of non-oil exports and its impact on the economic growth of Nigeria. The analysis of the data was conducted utilising the Bayesian vector autoregressive model. The study's findings provide empirical evidence supporting the notion that non-oil exports have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. For instance, the percentage rise in cocoa exports during the last year (QCXP (-1)) and the past two years (QCXP (-2)) resulted in a corresponding increase in GDP of around 0.12 percent and 0.39 percent, respectively. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exhibited a growth of around 0.59 percent and 0.49 percent correspondingly subsequent to a one percent upsurge in palm kernel exports throughout the preceding one year (QPKX (-1)) and the preceding two years (QPKX (-2)). Moreover, the export of rubber in Nigeria has been found to have a notable and favourable influence on the country's economic growth. Specifically, a one percent increase in the quantity of rubber exported in the current and previous years (QRXP (-1) and QRXP (-2)) corresponds to about 13.1 percent and 7.9 percent increases in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nigeria, respectively. The findings indicate a 1% rise in EXRT (-1), while EXRT (-2) correspondingly led to a GDP growth of around 0.16% and 0.35% respectively. Based on the empirical evidence, it is strongly advised that the Nigerian government should enhance its endeavours in the cultivation and processing of cocoa, palm kernel, and rubber as a means to foster the holistic economic advancement of the nation

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with paediatric cancer in low-income, middle-income and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, observational cohort study

OBJECTIVES: Paediatric cancer is a leading cause of death for children. Children in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) were four times more likely to die than children in high-income countries (HICs). This study aimed to test the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic had affected the delivery of healthcare services worldwide, and exacerbated the disparity in paediatric cancer outcomes between LMICs and HICs. DESIGN: A multicentre, international, collaborative cohort study. SETTING: 91 hospitals and cancer centres in 39 countries providing cancer treatment to paediatric patients between March and December 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Patients were included if they were under the age of 18 years, and newly diagnosed with or undergoing active cancer treatment for Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, Wilms' tumour, sarcoma, retinoblastoma, gliomas, medulloblastomas or neuroblastomas, in keeping with the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All-cause mortality at 30 days and 90 days. RESULTS: 1660 patients were recruited. 219 children had changes to their treatment due to the pandemic. Patients in LMICs were primarily affected (n=182/219, 83.1%). Relative to patients with paediatric cancer in HICs, patients with paediatric cancer in LMICs had 12.1 (95% CI 2.93 to 50.3) and 7.9 (95% CI 3.2 to 19.7) times the odds of death at 30 days and 90 days, respectively, after presentation during the COVID-19 pandemic (p<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, patients with paediatric cancer in LMICs had 15.6 (95% CI 3.7 to 65.8) times the odds of death at 30 days (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected paediatric oncology service provision. It has disproportionately affected patients in LMICs, highlighting and compounding existing disparities in healthcare systems globally that need addressing urgently. However, many patients with paediatric cancer continued to receive their normal standard of care. This speaks to the adaptability and resilience of healthcare systems and healthcare workers globally

Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality

Global Incidence and Risk Factors Associated With Postoperative Urinary Retention Following Elective Inguinal Hernia Repair

Importance Postoperative urinary retention (POUR) is a well-recognized complication of inguinal hernia repair (IHR). A variable incidence of POUR has previously been reported in this context, and contradictory evidence surrounds potential risk factors.Objective To ascertain the incidence of, explore risk factors for, and determine the health service outcomes of POUR following elective IHR.Design, Setting, and Participants The Retention of Urine After Inguinal Hernia Elective Repair (RETAINER I) study, an international, prospective cohort study, recruited participants between March 1 and October 31, 2021. This study was conducted across 209 centers in 32 countries in a consecutive sample of adult patients undergoing elective IHR.Exposure Open or minimally invasive IHR by any surgical technique, under local, neuraxial regional, or general anesthesia.Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the incidence of POUR following elective IHR. Secondary outcomes were perioperative risk factors, management, clinical consequences, and health service outcomes of POUR. A preoperative International Prostate Symptom Score was measured in male patients.Results In total, 4151 patients (3882 male and 269 female; median [IQR] age, 56 [43-68] years) were studied. Inguinal hernia repair was commenced via an open surgical approach in 82.2% of patients (n = 3414) and minimally invasive surgery in 17.8% (n = 737). The primary form of anesthesia was general in 40.9% of patients (n = 1696), neuraxial regional in 45.8% (n = 1902), and local in 10.7% (n = 446). Postoperative urinary retention occurred in 5.8% of male patients (n = 224), 2.97% of female patients (n = 8), and 9.5% (119 of 1252) of male patients aged 65 years or older. Risk factors for POUR after adjusted analyses included increasing age, anticholinergic medication, history of urinary retention, constipation, out-of-hours surgery, involvement of urinary bladder within the hernia, temporary intraoperative urethral catheterization, and increasing operative duration. Postoperative urinary retention was the primary reason for 27.8% of unplanned day-case surgery admissions (n = 74) and 51.8% of 30-day readmissions (n = 72).Conclusions The findings of this cohort study suggest that 1 in 17 male patients, 1 in 11 male patients aged 65 years or older, and 1 in 34 female patients may develop POUR following IHR. These findings could inform preoperative patient counseling. In addition, awareness of modifiable risk factors may help to identify patients at increased risk of POUR who may benefit from perioperative risk mitigation strategies