A scoring tool to predict mortality and dependency after cerebral venous thrombosis

Abstract Background and purpose: A prognostic score was developed to predict dependency and death after cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) to identify patients for targeted therapy in future clinical trials. Methods: Data from the International CVT Consortium were used. Patients with pre- existent functional dependency were excluded. Logistic regression was used to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 3– 6) at 6 months and Cox regression to predict 30- day and 1- year all- cause mortality. Potential predictors derived from previous studies were selected with backward stepwise selection. Coefficients were shrunk using ridge regression to adjust for optimism in internal validation. Results: Of 1454 patients with CVT, the cumulative number of deaths was 44 (3%) and 70 (5%) for 30 days and 1 year, respectively. Of 1126 patients evaluated regarding functional outcome, 137 (12%) were dependent or dead at 6 months. From the retained predictors for both models, the SI2NCAL2C score was derived utilizing the following components: absence of female- sex- specific risk factor, intracerebral hemorrhage, infection of the central nervous system, neurological focal deficits, coma, age, lower level of hemoglobin (g/l), higher level of glucose (mmol/l) at admission, and cancer. C- statistics were 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75– 0.84), 0.84 (95% CI 0.80– 0.88) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.80– 0.88) for the poor outcome, 30- day and 1- year mortality model, respectively. Calibration plots indicated a good model fit between predicted and observed values. The SI2NCAL2C score calculator is freely available at www.cereb ralve noust hromb osis.com. Conclusions: The SI2NCAL2C score shows adequate performance for estimating individual risk of mortality and dependency after CVT but external validation of the score is warranted

BMJ Open

INTRODUCTION: Worldwide, 2 million patients aged 18-50 years suffer a stroke each year, and this number is increasing. Knowledge about global distribution of risk factors and aetiologies, and information about prognosis and optimal secondary prevention in young stroke patients are limited. This limits evidence-based treatment and hampers the provision of appropriate information regarding the causes of stroke, risk factors and prognosis of young stroke patients. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Global Outcome Assessment Life-long after stroke in young adults (GOAL) initiative aims to perform a global individual patient data meta-analysis with existing data from young stroke cohorts worldwide. All patients aged 18-50 years with ischaemic stroke or intracerebral haemorrhage will be included. Outcomes will be the distribution of stroke aetiology and (vascular) risk factors, functional outcome after stroke, risk of recurrent vascular events and death and finally the use of secondary prevention. Subgroup analyses will be made based on age, gender, aetiology, ethnicity and climate of residence. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for the GOAL study has already been obtained from the Medical Review Ethics Committee region Arnhem-Nijmegen. Additionally and when necessary, approval will also be obtained from national or local institutional review boards in the participating centres. When needed, a standardised data transfer agreement will be provided for participating centres. We plan dissemination of our results in peer-reviewed international scientific journals and through conference presentations. We expect that the results of this unique study will lead to better understanding of worldwide differences in risk factors, causes and outcome of young stroke patients

Obesity and the Risk of Cryptogenic Ischemic Stroke in Young Adults

ObjectivesWe examined the association between obesity and early-onset cryptogenic ischemic stroke (CIS) and whether fat distribution or sex altered this association.Materials and MethodsThis prospective, multi-center, case-control study included 345 patients, aged 18-49 years, with first-ever, acute CIS. The control group included 345 age- and sex-matched stroke-free individuals. We measured height, weight, waist circumference, and hip circumference. Obesity metrics analyzed included body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-stature ratio (WSR), and a body shape index (ABSI). Models were adjusted for age, level of education, vascular risk factors, and migraine with aura.ResultsAfter adjusting for demographics, vascular risk factors, and migraine with aura, the highest tertile of WHR was associated with CIS (OR for highest versus lowest WHR tertile 2.81, 95%CI 1.43-5.51; P=0.003). In sex-specific analyses, WHR tertiles were not associated with CIS. However, using WHO WHR cutoff values (>0.85 for women, >0.90 for men), abdominally obese women were at increased risk of CIS (OR 2.09, 95%CI 1.02-4.27; P=0.045). After adjusting for confounders, WC, BMI, WSR, or ABSI were not associated with CIS.ConclusionsAbdominal obesity measured with WHR was an independent risk factor for CIS in young adults after rigorous adjustment for concomitant risk factors.</p