Tobacco Smoking and Mortality in Asia: A Pooled Meta-analysis

Importance: Understanding birth cohort-specific tobacco smoking patterns and their association with total and cause-specific mortality is important for projecting future deaths due to tobacco smoking across Asian populations. Objectives: To assess secular trends of tobacco smoking by countries or regions and birth cohorts and evaluate the consequent mortality in Asian populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This pooled meta-analysis was based on individual participant data from 20 prospective cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Between September 1, 2017, and March 31, 2018, a total of 1 002 258 Asian individuals 35 years or older were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and random-effects meta-analysis. The pooled results were presented for mainland China; Japan; Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; and India. Exposures: Tobacco use status, age at starting smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, and age at quitting smoking. Main Outcomes and Measures: Country or region and birth cohort-specific mortality and the population attributable risk for deaths from all causes and from lung cancer. Results: Of 1 002 258 participants (51.1% women and 48.9% men; mean [SD] age at baseline, 54.6 [10.4] years), 144 366 deaths (9158 deaths from lung cancer) were ascertained during a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.7 (5.3) years. Smoking prevalence for men steadily increased in China and India, whereas it plateaued in Japan and Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Among Asian male smokers, the mean age at starting smoking decreased in successive birth cohorts, while the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day increased. These changes were associated with an increasing relative risk of death in association with current smoking in successive birth cohorts of pre-1920, 1920s, and 1930 or later, with hazard ratios for all-cause mortality of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.17-1.37) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 1.47 (95% CI, 1.35-1.61) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 1.70 (95% CI, 1.57-1.84) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. The hazard ratios for lung cancer mortality were 3.38 (95% CI, 2.25-5.07) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 4.74 (95% CI, 3.56-6.32) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 4.80 (95% CI, 3.71-6.19) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking accounted for 12.5% (95% CI, 8.4%-16.3%) of all-cause mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 21.1% (95% CI, 17.3%-24.9%) of all-cause mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 29.3% (95% CI, 26.0%-32.3%) of all-cause mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking among men accounted for 56.6% (95% CI, 44.7%-66.3%) of lung cancer mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 66.6% (95% CI, 58.3%-73.5%) of lung cancer mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 68.4% (95% CI, 61.3%-74.4%) of lung cancer mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. For women, tobacco smoking patterns and lung cancer mortality varied substantially by countries and regions. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, mortality associated with tobacco smoking continued to increase among Asian men in recent birth cohorts, indicating that tobacco smoking will remain a major public health problem in most Asian countries in the coming decades. Implementing comprehensive tobacco-control programs is warranted to end the tobacco epidemic

Protein Nutritional Status and Frailty: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

publishedVersionPeer reviewe

Joint impact of common risk factors on incident dementia: A cohort study of the Swedish Twin Registry

Background As common risk factors of dementia, nine factors (low education, hearing loss, obesity, hypertension, smoking, depression, physical inactivity, diabetes and social isolation) were proposed. However, the joint impact of these factors on incident dementia is still uncertain; hence, we aimed to examine this impact. Methods We conducted a cohort study of 9017 cognitively intact individuals aged ≥ 65 years in the Swedish Twin Registry. The main exposure was the total number of reported risk factors (ranging from 0 to 9). Data on dementia diagnoses were based on clinical workup and national health registers. After estimating the adjusted hazard ratios of incident dementia, the population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated. We then conducted additional analyses, including APOE ε4 status in a genotyped subsample (n = 2810) to check the relative impact of the main exposure and discordant twin pair (n = 1158) analysis to consider confounding by familial effects (shared genetic or familial environmental factors). Results The number of dementia cases was 1950 (21.6%). A dose‐response relationship between the number of risk factors and incident dementia was observed; hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per one‐unit increment in number of risk factors was 1.07 (1.03 to 1.11). The PAF for the combination of the nine risk factors was 10.4%. The PAF of all nine risk factors was smaller than that of APOE ε4 genotype (20.8%) in the subsample. Discordant pair analysis suggested that the observed association was not likely explained by familial effects. Conclusion The nine risk factors may have considerable impact as modifiable factors on incident dementia