Smallholder farmers' adaptation to climate change and determinants of their adaptation decisions in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Background: The agricultural sector remains the main source of livelihoods for rural communities in Ethiopia, but faces the challenge of changing climate. This study investigated how smallholder farmers perceive climate change, what adaptation strategies they practice, and factors that influence their adaptation decisions. Both primary and secondary data were used for the study, and a multinomial logit model was employed to identify the factors that shape smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies. Results: The results show that 90% of farmers have already perceived climate variability, and 85% made attempts to adapt using practices like crop diversification, planting date adjustment, soil and water conservation and management, increasing the intensity of input use, integrating crop with livestock, and tree planting. The econometric model indicated that education, family size, gender, age, livestock ownership, farming experience, frequency of contact with extension agents, farm size, access to market, access to climate information and income were the key factors determining farmers’ choice of adaptation practice. Conclusion: In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change is a pressing problem, which is beyond the capacity of smallholders to respond to autonomously. Farmers’ capacity to choose effective adaptation options is influenced by household demography, as well as positively by farm size, income, access to markets, access to climate information and extension, and livestock production. This implies the need to support the indigenous adaptation strategies of the smallholder farmers with a wide range of institutional, policy, and technology support; some of it targeted on smaller, poorer or female-headed households. Moreover, creating opportunities for non-farm income sources is important as this helps farmers to engage in those activities that are less sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, providing climate change information, extension services, and creating access to markets are crucial

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000–2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. Methods We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures—borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography—and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Findings Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1–16·5), to 515 000 (425 000–614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3–44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62–6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51–9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000–45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000–467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800–108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021. Interpretation Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.publishedVersio

Gender gap in parental leave intentions: Evidence from 37 countries

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. Despite global commitments and efforts, a gender-based division of paid and unpaid work persists. To identify how psychological factors, national policies, and the broader sociocultural context contribute to this inequality, we assessed parental-leave intentions in young adults (18–30years old) planning to have children (N = 13,942; 8,880 identified as women; 5,062 identified as men) across 37 countries that varied in parental-leave policies and societal gender equality. In all countries, women intended to take longer leave than men. National parental-leave policies and women’s political representation partially explained cross-national variations in the gender gap. Gender gaps in leave intentions were paradoxically larger in countries with more gender-egalitarian parental-leave policies (i.e., longer leave available to both fathers and mothers). Interestingly, this cross-national variation in the gender gap was driven by cross-national variations in women’s (rather than men’s) leave intentions. Financially generous leave and gender-egalitarian policies (linked to men’s higher uptake in prior research) were not associated with leave intentions in men. Rather, men’s leave intentions were related to their individual gender attitudes. Leave intentions were inversely related to career ambitions. The potential for existing policies to foster gender equality in paid and unpaid work is discussed.SSHRC Insight Development GrantSSHRC Insight GrantEconomic and Social Research CouncilState Research AgencyGuangdong 13th-five Philosophy and Social Science Planning ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaSwiss National Science FoundationSwiss National Science FoundationCenter for Social Conflict and Cohesion StudiesCenter for Intercultural and Indigenous ResearchSSHRC Postdoctoral FellowshipSlovak Research and Development AgencySwiss National Science FoundationCanada Research ChairsSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of CanadaOntario Ministry of Research and InnovationHSE University, RFFaculty of Arts, Masaryk Universit

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000–2021 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

This online publication has been corrected. The corrected version first appeared at thelancet.com on July 31, 2023BACKGROUND : Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. METHODS : We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures—borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography—and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). FINDINGS : Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1–16·5), to 515 000 (425 000–614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3–44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62–6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51–9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000–45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000–467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800–108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021. INTERPRETATION : Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.www.thelancet.com/haematologyam2024School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH)SDG-03:Good heatlh and well-bein

Participatory forest management for improving livelihood assets and mitigating forest degradation: lesson drawn from the Central Rift Valley, Ethiopia

The study was conducted in Heban Arsi district, Central Rift Valley, Ethiopia to investigate the contribution of participatory forest management (PFM) to improving household’s livelihood assets and mitigating forest degradation. Data were gathered using household surveys, observation, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. During the entire study, 231 households (131 from PFM; 100 form non-PFM households), 35 key informants (25 from PFM; 10 from non-PFM) and 10 focus groups (6 from PFM; 4 from non-PFM) were involved. The livelihood assets framework was used to organize and analyze the quantitative data. The qualitative data was analyzed using topic coding and building categories, themes, and patterns of relationships. The introduction of PFM significantly (P < 0.05) improved the overall natural (index value of 0.72 and 0.58 for PFM and non-PFM, respectively), financial (0.73 and 0.61), physical (0.49 and 0.37), human (0.62 and 0.57) and social (0.77 and 0.59) livelihood asset values of local communities and contributed to the mitigation of forest degradation. On average, households involved in PFM displayed a 61.6%, 45.7%, 30.8% and 24.2% improvements in natural, financial, physical, and social assets, respectively. Households engaged in PFM showed a 37.4% improvement on the overall livelihood assets value, suggesting that PFM households displayed better livelihood assets compared to non-PFM households. However, the overall contribution of PFM to the livelihood assets showed skewed structure, suggesting that the improvements deviate from sustainability. The existing institutional structure including bylaws contributed a lot to strengthen PFM. Yet, it is crucial to strengthening the protection of forestlands through improving rule enforcement and commitments of both formal and informal institutions in managing forest resources. Also, sustaining the extraction of wood and non-wood forest products and the benefits from as well as integration of other interventions in PFM areas such as the provision of improved cook stoves and solar PV could help reduce forest degradation, improve the sense of ownership among local communities and sustain PFM activities. Further, expanding capacity building trainings and improving access to market could play a great role to sustainably manage forest resources through increasing the participation of local communities in decision making processes

Analytical understanding of the effect of shaping on confinement in TEM regime References

International audience- Analytical dispersion relation for Trapped Electron Mode (TEM) instab. solved numerically- Retains shaping effects evaluation of their impact on growth rate- Beneficial role of negative triangularity results from finite orbit width effect and/or ballooning of the mod

Effect of shaping on Trapped Electron Mode stability: an analytical model

A reduced model for Trapped Electron Mode stability has been developed, which incorporates basic effects of magnetic surface shaping, in particular elongation and triangularity. This model shows that while elongation is stabilising, though weakly, negative triangularity usually leads to a more unstable plasma. This is in marked contrast with the experimental evidence of a better confinement at negative triangularity, and with recent gyrokinetic linear simulations. This paradox is solved when finite orbit and/or finite mode width effects are included. These effects give more weight to particles trapped at low bounce angles, which are the ones that exhibit lower precession frequencies at negative-as compared to positive-triangularity. As a result, the interchange growth rate becomes lower at negative triangularity and large temperature gradients, so that negative triangularity appears to have an overall stabilizing effect

Effect of the magnetic geometry on Trapped Electron Modes instability: an analytical model References

International audienc