Standing Out from the Crowd: The Real Effects of Outliers

We study the impact of outlier opinions – extreme views voiced by individuals – in financial markets. Using analyst forecasts as a laboratory, we show that market participants respond to the arrival of extremely optimistic forecasts, instead of ignoring them as noise. An outlier forecast subsequently moves group consensus and begets more extreme forecasts by peers. Outlier forecasts also generate stronger market reactions from investors, more media coverage, and more conservative management guidance. Further analyses reveal that issuing outlier forecasts increases an analyst’s chance to cover more important clients of his employer. Outlier forecasts are also more likely to take place when an analyst’s reputation cost is lower and information uncertainty is high. These findings suggest that the propensity for expressing extreme views is situational and that personal incentives are the likely cause at play

Heavy Tails, Generalized Coding, and Optimal Web Layout

This paper considers Web layout design in the spirit of source coding for data compression and rate distortion theory, with the aim of minimizing the average size of files downloaded during Web browsing sessions. The novel aspect here is that the object of design is layout rather than codeword selection, and is subject to navigability constraints. This produces statistics for file transfers that are heavy tailed, completely unlike standard Shannon theory, and provides a natural and plausible explanation for the origin of observed power laws in Web traffic. We introduce a series of theoretical and simulation models for optimal Web layout design with varying levels of analytic tractability and realism with respect to modeling of structure, hyperlinks, and user behavior. All models produce power laws which are striking both for their consistency with each other and with observed data, and their robustness to modeling assumptions. These results suggest that heavy tails are a permanent and ubiquitous feature of Internet traffic, and not an artifice of current applications or user behavior. They also suggest new ways of thinking about protocol design that combines insights from information and control theory with traditional networking

Unleashing Innovation

Using a sample of venture capital (VC)-backed initial public offering (IPO) firms, we study the effect of financial intermediaries’ tight leash on entrepreneurs’ innovation productivity. We find that financial intermediaries’ tight leash impedes innovation: IPO firms are significantly less innovative when VCs interfere with their development more frequently through staging—as measured by a larger number of VC financing rounds. To establish causality, we exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the frequency of direct flights between VC domiciles and IPO firm headquarters that are due to airline restructuring. Our identification tests suggest a negative, causal effect of VC staging on firm innovation. Furthermore, staging is more detrimental to innovation when innovation is more difficult to achieve and when VCs are less experienced with the industry in which their entrepreneurial firms operate. By documenting a previously underrecognized adverse consequence of VC stage financing, our evidence suggests that contract mechanisms are at play so that short-termist incentives can be cultivated even in a private equity market populated with long-term, sophisticated investors

The role of excitons and free charges in the excited-state dynamics of solution-processed few-layer MoS₂ nanoflakes

Solution-processed semiconducting transition metal dichalcogenides are emerging as promising two-dimensional materials for photovoltaic and optoelectronic applications. Here, we have used transient absorption spectroscopy to provide unambiguous evidence and distinct signatures of photogenerated excitons and charges in solution- processed few-layer MoS₂ nanoflakes (10–20 layers). We find that photoexcitation above the direct energy gap results in the ultrafast generation of a mixture of free charges in direct band states and of excitons. While the excitons are rapidly trapped, the free charges are long-lived with nanosecond recombination times. The different signatures observed for these species enable the experimental extraction of the exciton binding energy, which we find to be ∼80 meV in the nanoflakes, in agreement with reported values in the bulk material. Carrier-density-dependent measurements bring new insights about the many-body interactions between free charges resulting in band gap renormalization effects in the few-layer MoS₂ nanoflakes

Cryptanalysis of the Compression Function of SIMD

SIMD is one of the second round candidates of the SHA-3 competition hosted by NIST. In this paper, we present some results on the compression function of SIMD 1.1 (the tweaked version) using the modular difference method. For SIMD-256, We give a free-start near collision attack on the compression function reduced to 20 steps with complexity $2^{-107}$. And for SIMD-512, we give a free-start near collision attack on the 24-step compression function with complexity $2^{208}$. Furthermore, we give a distinguisher attack on the full compression function of SIMD-512 with complexity $2^{398}$. Our attacks are also applicable for the final compression function of SIMD

A Fractional Anomalous Diffusion Model and Numerical Simulation for Sodium Ion Transport in the Intestinal Wall

The authors present a fractional anomalous diffusion model to describe the uptake of sodium ions across the epithelium of gastrointestinal mucosa and their subsequent diffusion in the underlying blood capillaries using fractional Fick’s law. A heterogeneous two-phase model of the gastrointestinal mucosa is considered, consisting of a continuous extracellular phase and a dispersed cellular phase. The main mode of uptake is considered to be a fractional anomalous diffusion under concentration gradient and potential gradient. Appropriate partial differential equations describing the variation with time of concentrations of sodium ions in both the two phases across the intestinal wall are obtained using Riemann-Liouville space-fractional derivative and are solved by finite difference methods. The concentrations of sodium ions in the interstitial space and in the cells have been studied as a function of time, and the mean concentration of sodium ions available for absorption by the blood capillaries has also been studied. Finally, numerical results are presented graphically for various values of different parameters. This study demonstrates that fractional anomalous diffusion model is appropriate for describing the uptake of sodium ions across the epithelium of gastrointestinal mucosa

Towards Effective Network Intrusion Detection: A Hybrid Model Integrating Gini Index and GBDT with PSO

In order to protect computing systems from malicious attacks, network intrusion detection systems have become an important part in the security infrastructure. Recently, hybrid models that integrating several machine learning techniques have captured more attention of researchers. In this paper, a novel hybrid model was proposed with the purpose of detecting network intrusion effectively. In the proposed model, Gini index is used to select the optimal subset of features, the gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT) algorithm is adopted to detect network attacks, and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is utilized to optimize the parameters of GBDT. The performance of the proposed model is experimentally evaluated in terms of accuracy, detection rate, precision, F1-score, and false alarm rate using the NSL-KDD dataset. Experimental results show that the proposed model is superior to the compared methods